Hitting The Cutoff Man

You know how in Little League, there's always that one kid who hit puberty a little early, throws hard enough to make kids cry and just flat-out looks like he should be playing at another level?

That was pretty much what it was like watching Stephen Strasburg pitch against the Pirates in his MLB debut Tuesday in Washington.

And while it is certainly easy to throw out a "But when are they going to move him up to the Majors" joke, the Pirates aren't THAT bad. These are still big league hitters. Honestly, Pittsburgh isn't even the worst offensive team in its division and even after the game has struck out fewer times than 11 other MLB teams.

What Strasburg did was simply stunning, even in the context of the almost unreasonable expectations he was facing. In fact, it's probably all the more stunning because of those expectations. This is a guy who simply does not appear to be in the least bit bothered by the unrivaled hype that has steadily built around him as he has climbed from college to the minors and now into the big leagues.

Stuff-wise, that was one of the greatest displays of pitching I've seen. That sounds like some serious hyperbole, but if you watched him pitch, you will know I'm not exaggerating. For a guy so young to throw that hard, with that much movement, with such precise control and with such filthy off-speed stuff is practically beyond comprehension. The curveball he threw to strike out Delwyn Young in the second inning was like something out of a cartoon, it had that much break to it.

And the results of course were phenomenal -- in particular, the 14 strikeouts with no walks. He's the first pitcher to do that in his first start and one of 12 to do it within his first 100 games. In fact, this was only the 18th time since 2000 that a pitcher struck out at least 14 batters in a game without walking anyone and just the 5th time someone accomplished that in as few as Strasburg's seven innings.

I could go on and on, but there's only so much fawning I'm capable of.

I will close with this thought: At the beginning of the season, I compared Strasburg to Satchel Paige while musing on the subject of legends and mystique. I thought that because Strasburg is being so rigorously documented, he would never create legends the way Paige did, having played (unfortunately) on the fringes for much of his life.

In a way, I was wrong.

There might never be the same kinds of legends about Strasburg as there are about Paige, those with questionable veracity but a whole lot of color. We'll always know exactly what the phenom does and does not do.

It's just that what Strasburg actually did Monday needs no after-the-fact polishing or embellishing. It came pre-packaged for the story books -- and the record books.

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Former Mets GM and ESPN baseball analyst Steve Phillips wrote a column a week ago titled, "Think You Can Be a GM? You Have No Idea". The general point was that every fan believes he could be a GM but is completely unaware of what it takes to do the job, which involves a lot more than dealing with the 25-man major league roster.

Fair enough. Being a GM is a tough job, and it's undoubtedly true that the vast majority of smartass fans out there would fail miserably at it if given the chance. We all think we could do the job better than someone who currently does it without being fully aware of everything that the position entails.

Then again, Phillips saying a job is difficult is kind of like a kid who goofed around in class all year telling his parents about the trials of school when his report card comes back with poor grades. Sure, being an MLB GM is difficult, but plenty of people have been able to do the job well, and when you basically ignore logic and modern methods of analysis on a regular basis, you lose credibility.

And Phillips has very little of that left. He was fired by the Mets -- and for good reason -- was an atrociously bad TV analyst, then got himself booted from ESPN for some "indiscretions".

And now, he apparently said that if he were running the Nationals, he would trade Stephen Strasburg straight up for Roy Oswalt.

Look, Roy Oswalt is a fine pitcher who has enjoyed a very good career. But if you're even a casual baseball fan with a functioning frontal lobe, I don't think I need to explain the absolute insanity of Phillips' statement. In a nutshell, you would be trading a guy who everyone agrees is a once-in-a-generation talent and who will be under team control for years to come for an injury-prone veteran whose best days are behind him, who is expensive and who will be a free agent in a year and a half.

If anyone was even considering the notion of hiring Phillips for a baseball front-office position again, I think that idea is pretty much squelched at this point.

Just for fun, I hacked into Phillips' e-mail account and found some other sage advice he has offered people recently. Here are some highlights:

To his sister, who is thinking about signing up for a cooking class: "Why learn how to make gourmet meals for cheap when you could go eat at Quiznos every day?"

To his son, who is car shopping: "I know that new BMW will probably last you for years and offer slick performance and reliability, but you should really consider a used Toyota."

To his nephew, a high school senior thinking about next year: "Sure, you got into Harvard on a full scholarship. But think of all the opportunities you'd be missing by passing up a chance to go to community college!"

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The baseball season is a month old now, and it's been a crazy season already to say the least.

We've got Paul Konerko leading the majors in home runs by a margin of three, and Kelly Johnson tied for the NL lead. Tigers rookie Austin Jackson is second in the AL with a .376 batting average (aided by a mind-boggling .524 BABIP), while Cardinals rookie David Freese is atop the NL with a .360 mark. Andre Ethier is close to a triple crown, sitting first in the NL in RBI, tied for first in home runs and just behind Freese in average. Meanwhile, someone named Doug Fister is leading the AL in ERA while the ancient Livan Hernandez and rookie Jaime Garcia are second and third in the NL. We've already seen a no-hitter and a three-homer game (from John Buck).

Of course, it's still very early and by the end of the season, most of these facts will be nothing more than distant memories -- if they're remembered at all.

On the occasion of Cinco De Mayo, here are five stories I'll be watching intently as the month progresses.

1. Rookie Revolution -- As mentioned, guys like Jackson, Freese and Garcia are tearing up the league, along with phenom Jason Heyward. Jackson in particular seems likely to come crashing down to Earth, thanks to his ridiculously unsustainable BABIP and hacktastic approach, and the two Cardinals are almost certainly playing over their heads as well -- not to say they aren't good players. Heyward looks as good as the hype though, having shown patience, the willingness to hit the ball the other way, the ability to make adjustments to the adjustments pitchers make to him and a coolness and maturity under pressure. And don't forget, we haven't even seen perhaps the best rookie of all yet. That would be Stephen Strasburg, who was just promoted to Triple-A by the Nats and figures to be in the big leagues by sometime in June. It's always exciting to see young players break through, so this season is a real treat.

2. The Fabulous Rays -- I think it's safe to say that everyone outside of New York, Boston and Bristol, Conn., would like to see the low-budget Rays win the AL East this season. So far, so good. Tampa has the best record in baseball at 19-7, leading the AL in both runs scored and ERA. This team is young, very talented and extremely fun to watch, playing a much more visually appealing brand of baseball than their division counterparts. And for what it's worth, they know they can do it, having made the World Series two years ago.

3. The AL Wild West -- This certainly isn't baseball's best division, but it might be it's most fascinating, and it certainly could turn into the closest pennant race. With one month in the books, all four teams are within 2 1/2 games, although Texas at 14-13 is the only one over .500. In fact, if anyone runs away with the division, it will be the Rangers, who have gotten a nice pitching boost from Japan returnee Colby Lewis and converted reliever C.J. Wilson. Meanwhile, the depleted Angels have the second-worst run differential in the AL, and the Mariners -- a hot pre-season pick -- simply cannot hit the ball enough to win games so far. Only the Astros have scored fewer runs this season, and the whole team is hitting .235/.309/.327. That's worse than Adam Everett's career numbers.

4. Zack's Lack (Of Support) -- The good news about Zack Greinke's 2010 season is that it's another step toward convincing people to do away with the win as a good measurement of a pitcher's value. That's probably not much consolation to Greinke, however. The 2009 AL Cy Young winner has started six games this season, pitched 39 2/3 innings with a 33 to 7 K/BB ratio, a 2.27 ERA and a 0.98 WHIP. In other words, he's been excellent, if not quite up to last season's outrageous start. Despite holding the opposition to two earned runs or less in five of his six starts, he is 0-3 with three no-decisions, two of which ended up as Royals defeats. Before Greinke's last start, when he held the hot-hitting Rays to one run in eight innings in a game the Royals lost 3-0, Joe Posnanski wrote about "The Agony of Being Greinke." The big stat: Since Aug. 16, 2008, Greinke had a 2.11 ERA in 46 starts, and the Royals went 22-24 in those games.

5. Zombies in the Outfield -- Before the season started, it was widely assumed that Vernon Wells and Alfonso Soriano were pretty much finished as impact players and hence had probably the two worst contracts in baseball. And frankly, nobody was really saying anything at all about Andruw Jones, who hadn't been good in about four years. Well, all three former star outfielders appear to be back from the dead. Jones, Soriano and Wells are 6th, 10th and 15th in MLB in wOBA among players with at least 80 plate appearances so far, and they've combined for 23 home runs. To put the redemption another way: Last season the three combined to be worth one win above replacement. In one month in 2010, they're already at 3.7.

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Last night I watched as the Braves' Jason Heyward smacked a home run with two outs in the bottom of the ninth inning to tie the game against the Phillies. A couple of days before, I watched as Heyward -- with two outs and two strikes and the Braves trailing by one -- hit an opposite-field single against a left-handed pitcher to score two and win the game.

It's getting awfully difficult to keep the Heyward Hype Machine from overheating.

The thing about Heyward is -- if he does turn out to be a great player, it will surprise nobody. He's been a big-time prospect for a long while, and this year was Baseball America's No. 1 prospect, a spot ahead of fellow phenom Stephen Strasburg.

That brought this thought to mind: What kind of prospects go on to be most successful? I'll leave a more serious study of the subject to someone else, but what I decided to do was take Baseball America's annual top 100 prospects lists (which go back to 1990) and divide them into top 10 players, top 100 players and unranked players.

Then I created a team out of each group. Each player is listed with the highest ranking they achieved on the list, as many were on there in multiple seasons.

     Team 'Top Ten'               Team 'Top 100'               Team 'Unranked'
C    Joe Mauer ('04-'05, #1)      Brian McCann ('05, #44)      Yadier Molina

1B   Mark Teixeira ('03, #1)      Albert Pujols ('01, #42)     Pablo Sandoval

2B   Brandon Phillips ('03, #7)   Chase Utley ('03, #81)       Ben Zobrist

3B   Alex Rodriguez ('95, #1)     Ryan Zimmerman ('06, #15)    Kevin Youkilis

SS   Hanley Ramirez ('05, #10)    Troy Tulowitzki ('07, #15)   Yunel Escobar

LF   Justin Upton ('07, #9)       Carl Crawford ('02, #59)     Matt Holliday

CF   Grady Sizemore ('04, #9)     Matt Kemp ('06, #96)         Denard Span

RF   Ichiro Suzuki ('01, #9)      Ryan Braun ('07, #26)        Nelson Cruz

DH   Prince Fielder ('04, #10)    Miguel Cabrera ('03, #12)    Mark Reynolds



C    Matt Wieters ('09, #1)       Victor Martinez ('03, #16)   Jorge Posada

MI   Derek Jeter ('95, #4)        Ian Kinsler ('05, #98)       Chone Figgins

CI   Evan Longoria ('08, #2)      Adrian Gonzalez ('03, #31)   Jorge Cantu

OF   Jason Heyward ('10, #1)      Shin-Soo Choo ('05, #51)     Michael Bourn

OF   B.J. Upton ('04, #2)         Jayson Werth ('00, #48)      Shane Victorino



SP   Felix Hernandez ('05, #2)    Tim Lincecum ('07, #11)      Dan Haren

SP   Justin Verlander ('06, #8)   Roy Halladay ('99, #12)      John Lackey

SP   CC Sabathia ('01, #7)        Zack Greinke ('04, #14)      Ricky Nolasco

SP   Josh Beckett ('02, #1)       Chris Carpenter ('97, #28)   Brandon Webb

SP   Tommy Hanson ('09, #4)       Adam Wainwright ('03, #18)   James Shields

SP   Clayton Kershaw ('08, #7)    Cliff Lee ('03, #30)         Scott Baker

SP   Matt Cain ('06, #10)         Josh Johnson ('06, #80)      Wandy Rodriguez

SP   Brett Anderson ('09, #7)     Ubaldo Jimenez ('05, #82)    Ryan Dempster

SP   Chad Billingsley ('06, #7)   Javier Vazquez ('98, #83)    Jorge de la Rosa



SU   Neftali Feliz ('10, #9)      Jonathan Papelbon ('06, #37) Joe Nathan

CL   Fran. Rodriguez ('03, #10)   Jonathan Broxton ('06, #63)  Mariano Rivera

I only included a couple of relievers because there aren't a whole lot of top prospects that become elite relievers.

Anyways, I think you can see a couple of things here. First, while Team 'Unranked' is quite good, there is a noticeable gap between it and the other two teams. So although we can safely say that Baseball America misses some good players, it does a pretty good job of identifying the best of the best.

That said, I think it's difficult to see much of a difference between Team 'Top 10' and Team 'Top 100.' Of course, the latter is pulling from a pool of players that is nine times deeper. In any case, the lesson is this: As great as Heyward, Strasburg and this year's other elite prospects might be, they're hardly the be-all and end-all.

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Yesterday, I got to thinking about legends.

The catalyst for this was two-fold: Stephen Strasburg made his debut for Double-A Harrisburg, and I began reading Satchel: The Life and Times of an American Legend, a recent biography of Satchel Paige written by Larry Tye.

Satchel Paige, of course, was a terrific pitcher for many years in the Negro Leagues and also for a short time in the majors after they were integrated. He even pitched briefly at age 59 for the Kansas City Athletics, setting a record as the oldest player in the game, which still stands, pending an assault from Jamie Moyer.

But what is so fascinating about Paige besides his verified accomplishments and big personality are the stories. One of these in particular stands out, and it's one that Tye mentions early on in the book. It goes like so: In 1926, Paige was pitching for the Mobile Tigers and was going for his 26th straight win. He had a 1-0 lead with two outs in the ninth inning when three straight errors loaded the bases. A furious Paige then apparently pulled the gutsiest move of all time, waving in his outfielders and having them sit on the grass behind him. He struck out the last batter.

At least, that's how the legend goes. Paige wrote about it, and others have told the story, but there's also some contradictory evidence and no way to know for sure. Whether or not it really occurred, however, it certainly makes for a great story and adds to the Paige mystique.

That brings me back to Mr. Strasburg, whom Washington selected No. 1 overall in last season's draft and whom everyone expects to be the next great pitcher.

Like Paige, Strasburg is tall, right-handed and throws a blazing fastball. Unlike Paige, there is absolutely zero mystery to him.

When Strasburg was still at San Diego State last season, everyone already knew he'd be the top pick in the draft (assuming the team with the No. 1 selection didn't go cheap). Every pitch he threw was scrutinized as such. His Spring Training outings this year were big news. Then yesterday in Altoona, the stadium was sold out, the team apparently gave out something like 75 media credentials -- compared with the usual two -- and you could watch the outing online. Baseball Tonight showed highlights of his performance, and you could find detailed written accounts of it all over (for example, on Keith Law's blog).

The point is, everybody knows everything Stephen Strasburg has done as a pitcher, and we will continue to know everything he does in the future and have analysis of it in a matter of moments. There will never be legends about Stephen Strasburg like there are about Satchel Paige because nothing Strasburg does will ever be unverifiable.

Obviously, part of that is due to the fact that no players today are marginalized in baseball and in general society like Paige and other African-American stars of his era were. Clearly, that's a great thing. But it's not like Negro Leaguers were the only ones who were the subjects of baseball legends. After all, we've got the Babe's called shot, among others.

The fact is that today every pitch that is thrown, even in the minor leagues, is documented. This is great for baseball fans, whose thirst for information can be better satisfied.

But if somebody writes a biography of Stephen Strasburg 50 years down the road -- assuming books still exist -- it will be, a) much easier to research than Satchel, and b) much less interesting.

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2009: 59-103, 5th in NL East. Pythagorean record of 66-96.
Key Additions: 2B Adam Kennedy, C Ivan Rodriguez, SPs Jason Marquis and Chien-Ming Wang, RP Matt Capps, OF Willy Taveras
Key Losses: OF Elijah Dukes, C Josh Bard, RPs Mike MacDougal and Ron Villone
2010 Projections: PECOTA – 74-88, 5th in NL East. CHONE – 74-88, 5th. CAIRO – 73.1-88.9, 5th.

Pitching: 2009 – 4.82 FIP (25th in MLB), 4.79 for starters, 4.88 for relievers
2010 – The best news for this staff is that Next Big Thing Stephen Strasburg is coming at some point this season, probably sooner rather than later. Marquis and John Lannan are capable big league starters, but when they're you're top two pitchers, that's a problem. The Nats brought in Capps to try to hold down the closer job
Hitting: 2009 – .326 wOBA (17th in MLB)
2010 – A lineup core of Ryan Zimmerman, Adam Dunn, Josh Willingham and Nyjer Morgan isn't too shabby, but the rest of the lineup is uninspiring at best. 24-year-old rookie Ian Desmond will be the team's starting shortstop, and while he has good potential, he doesn't figure to make a Strasburg-esque impact this year.
Fielding: 2009 – UZR of -26.7 (24th in MLB)
2010 – Morgan and Zimmerman are two of the best defensive players in the majors at any position. Dunn is absolutely brutal in left field and not that much better at first base -- how he's not already in the American League DHing, I have no idea.

Reasons to Watch
1. Stephen Strasburg: This is obvious. Coming out of San Diego State, Strasburg was one of the most highly touted college pitchers ever. The Nationals took him No. 1 overall in the 2009 draft and were able to sign him. Most people view Strasburg as major league-ready right now, and his work in the Arizona Fall League and Spring Training (when he gave up two runs and struck out 12 in nine innings), did nothing to hurt that notion. Nonetheless, he will start the season at Double-A Harrisburg. Strasburg likely will be up in the majors by June, however, and all eyes are going to be on him. There will be tremendous expectations, but it doesn't appear like he's the type of guy who will be bothered by that.
2. Ian Desmond: Washington's young shortstop impressed late last season, when he hit .280/.318/.561 in 89 plate appearances. That performance capped a great year for Desmond, who also put up career-best numbers at the plate in the minors before his call-up. He has a sterling defensive reputation as well, but it wouldn't be a shock to see Desmond struggle some at the plate in 2010. CHONE, for example, sees him posting a .324 wOBA. And if Desmond hits a rough spot, Christian Guzman is still around to steal at-bats. Nationals fans will be hoping Desmond gets off to a good start and gets the chance to adjust to the big leagues over a full season of at-bats.
3. Moving pieces: The Nats have finally started to turn the organization around in the past year or so, drafting promising guys like Strasburg and fellow 2009 first-rounder Drew Storen, while also bringing in some undervalued players like Morgan and Willingham via trade. But the Nats are still a long ways away from building a contending team and need all of the pieces they can get. The question is if GM Mike Rizzo will be willing and able to deal Willingham, Dunn and others this season in an effort to stockpile as many good young players as possible. Sure, the Nats might win fewer games in 2010, but they're going to need the extra wins in 2013 a lot more than they will now.

Paint By Numbers: Dunn is one consistent guy. Last season, Big Donkey hit 38 home runs, breaking a streak of four consecutive seasons in which he hit exactly 40. Still, Dunn has done the following six seasons in a row: come to the plate between 630 and 690 times, hit between 38 and 46 home runs, driven in between 92 and 106 runs, walked between 15.9 and 18.6% of the time, struck out between 30.9 and 34.3% of the time and posted an OBP between .365 and .398. Meanwhile, his total UZR the past two seasons combined is a mind-boggling -64.3. ... Lannan has pulled the trick of vastly out-performing his FIP two straight seasons. In both 2008 and 2009, Lannan managed an ERA in the high 3s, even as his FIP stood between 4.70 and 4.80. Last season, his K/BB ratio was second-worst among qualified pitchers, but he also had the 10th -highest ground ball to fly ball ratio.

Blog Jog: Capitol Punishment's Chris Needham reacts to the news of Desmond winning the starting SS job and looks at his minor league track record. ... Mark Zuckerman has Storen answer some questions posed by his readers. ... The Nats Blog's Sam Farber analyzes Christian Guzman joining Washington's right field platoon, while William Yoder brings the latest installment of the Bryce Harper Watch.

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