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By JASON SARNEY
Fantasy Phenoms

With the NFL draft a week away, I figured it was time to put my Mel Kiper (hair) hat on, and dive into my take on the Mock Draft. It is as difficult to predict as ever these days, and it no matter what anybody with a blog thinks, NFL scouts and GMs know infinitely more than we do. With that said, I have taken into account that even the best draft predictors out there are rarely spot-on, and even rarely semi-accurate, so I have made a few head-scratchers. Can you blame me? If we have learned anything about the draft, is we should expect the unexpected.

1st- Carolina Panthers- Marcell Dareus DT Alabama: Cam Newton this, Cam Newton that. If I had the next decade of a franchise at stake with a No. 1 overall pick I would go with the most pro-ready prospect in the draft. That is not Cam Newton, or even Blaine Gabbert for that matter. Neither QB could step in like Matt Ryan or Sam Bradford in my opinion, so Carolina must go with Dareus should they hang-tough in the No. 1 slot. Dareus is a monster with freakish speed for a D-lineman. He has all the checkmarks for an All-Pro DL with his athleticism, great hands, quick feet, explosiveness, versatility, and perhaps the most important intangible; the fact that he was the anchor of Alabama’s pro-style defense. NFL scouts equate him to a Warren Sapp like player. There is virtually no risk with Dareus, while a QB at No. 1 is just too risky, and a miss sets a team back years.

2nd-Denver Broncos- Patrick Peterson DB/KR LSU: Now this is where the draft is fun. If Newton goes No. 1, or Gabbert does, Dareus won't get past Denver. That’s why they draft the players, much like that's why they play the games. Wrenches in the draft happen, and Denver will get a chance to net arguably the most talented player on the board in LSU defensive back Patrick Peterson. The versatile defensive back can play all over the field, and can neutralize top-end talent, like Dwayne Bowe and Vincent Jackson four times a season in the AFC West. Denver already has Champ Bailey as a mentor for Peterson, so he can fine-tune his near flawless game. Denver had just 10 INTs last season, and was ranked 25th overall in defense against the pass. Peterson can change that from the jump.

3rd- Buffalo Bills- Von Miller LB Texas A&M: Still no Newton you ask? Well, if you ask me, I think Ryan Fitzpatrick is good enough to allow Buffalo to fill a greater need in the first round, and go future-QB in the 2nd or 3rd. Miller is a ball-hawk who will no doubt help a Bills defense that was dead last against the run in 2010. Miller is simply perfect for Buffalo. They are a 3-4 scheme and that is where Miller will excel. His lightning-quick speed makes up for his relative under-sized frame, but his athleticism and heart out-weigh the height. He led the nation in sacks in 2009, and was the Butkus Award winner as the nation’s top linebacker. For you NFL combine fans out there, his 60-yard shuttle run time was 11.15 which was the best ever in the combine's history. He will be an All-Pro and a fan-favorite in Western New York, and help that unit right away.

4th- Cincinnati Bengals- Blaine Gabbert QB Missouri: OK, so everyone out there says A.J. Green is a shoo-in for the Bengals. Well, I don’t disagree that Green is a fine fit, and is also supremely talented. However, Carson Palmer is threatening retirement, and I don’t think Jordan Palmer is evoking much confidence as a potential heir in the Queen City. So, here is one of those draft day wrenches again, and Cincy shocks us all and goes with Gabbert, thus sending Arizona into a tizzy. As for why Gabbert makes sense here. He is a prototypical QB prospect at 6’4’’ 234, who has been wowing scouts with his football and intellectual acumen, which is an intangible that should be very important in Cincy in 2011 moving forward. He does have a lot to learn while he assimilates to the pro-game and taking snaps under-center was not an every down occurrence while at Missouri. Cincy could easily go Green here, but the best QB in this class could be a more prudent move, while a WR in the 2nd could be a great value way to fill that need.

5th- Arizona Cardinals- Nick Fairley DT Auburn: If Gabbert goes to Cincy, the Cardinals may have to resort to their contingency plan, which should be fill the glaring need of no run support in 2010. The Cardinals have no QB, sure, but I have a feeling a veteran is bound for the desert. Perhaps a Donovan McNabb, but either way the 30th ranked rush defense from a season ago needs help in the middle, and Nick Fairley is talented enough to be a top overall pick. Out of Auburn, the uber-talent has every physical tool imaginable, yet there are some character issues. Regardless of the work ethic and less than Boy-Scout reputation, he can flat out stop the run, and be a force against the pass as well. Fairley can be a terrific plan B here, but if Gabbert is around, the Cards will likely build their team around him.

Click here for the complete first-round projection of the 2011 NFL Draft.

Read more of Jason Sarney at Fantasy Phenoms.