Red Sox Diaries

Now that the All-Star break is upon us, here's the second part of the Midseason Report:

The starting pitching has definitely started to come around--and it only figures to get better

Boston's rotation was its Achilles' heel in the early part of the season. Josh Beckett went 2-2 with a 7.22 ERA in five April starts, Brad Penny was allowing nearly one run per inning in the season's first month, Daisuke Matsuzaka was (and still is) a mess and Jon Lester's ERA was 6.07 after 10 starts. Only 90-year-old knuckleballer Tim Wakefield provided any sort of consistency or stability. As a group, they were struggling to work deep into games, giving up too many home runs and prone to big innings.

Advanced statistics like FIP and BABIP suggested they were more unlucky than anything else and figured to turn it around sooner or later--and lately, they certainly have. Beckett and Wakefield are All-Stars, Penny and Lester finally have their ERAs below 5.00 (Lester's is actually below 4.00 now), and Matsuzaka...well, four out of five ain't bad. Plus, John Smoltz is off the Disabled List and has made four starts that suggest he still has some life left.

The scary thing for the rest of the league is that the starters' stats still aren't quite indicative of how well they're pitching. All five starters have FIPs below their ERAs, led by Smoltz's 2.27 FIP (versus a 5.40 ERA). That vast discrepancy is mainly a product of his unsightly .379 BABIP (while his career BABIP is almost 90 points lower). He's no longer as much of a strikeout pitcher as he was in his prime, but he's still ringing up 7.65 batters per nine innings and finding the strike zone early and often with a fastball he throws in the low 90s. Even Matsuzaka has been somewhat snakebitten (.443 BABIP), though his FIP of 5.72 is still utterly terrible.

Wakefield has been one of the best stories of the season. Sure, his 11-3 record is inflated because of his offensive support (6.23 runs per game) but he's labored through at least the sixth inning in 14 of his 17 outings and has 11 quality starts. As of late June, Fangraphs had his fastball rated as the most effective one in the game--even though it averages 72.7 mph and he throws it less than 10 percent of the time--because it's been such an effective complement to his knuckleball. Interestingly, his BABIP this year is .300 (the last season it was that high was 2001), so his ERA might get even better in the second half if that regresses more towards his career average of .281. It's hard to imagine him pitching much better than he is now, though, and it makes up for his ridiculous .247 BABIP a year ago. Wakefield has already surpassed last year's win total (10) as well.

Lester has been an intriguing case--he was more of a strikeout pitcher in the minors, averaging 8.3 punch outs per nine innings, but in the majors that number usually hovered between 6.5 and 7. This season, he's striking out a career-high 10.3 batters per nine innings and has maintained his low walk rate from last year, giving him a strikeout-to-walk ratio of 3.74--among the 10 best marks in the American League. Lester is just 21 strikeouts short of his 2008 total (152), and he's thrown 100 fewer innings. His fastball is about 1.5 mph faster on average than it was last season.

There's not too much to say about Penny, other than that he has given them adequate production as the fifth starter (99 ERA+, 1.48 WHIP) and they should trade him now while his stock is high and teams are desperate for rotation help. He's allowed 110 hits in 93.2 innings and is striking out fewer than six batters per nine innings--it's not like he's irreplaceable, and his numbers certainly don't match his reputation of a guy who has great stuff. They two excellent options in AAA (though Clay Buccholz got called up and will start against Toronto on Friday; I'll talk about him and Michael Bowden later). Justin Masterson is also wasting away in the bullpen, struggling with his undefined role and sporadic use.

Finally, maybe I'm overemphasizing how bad Matsuzaka has been so far, but consider this: opposing hitters have posted a line of .378/.443/.647 against him in 2009. Basically, every batter turns into Joe Mauer (.373/.447/.622) when they face Matsuzaka. That's absurd. After allowing the fewest hits per nine innings in baseball last season (6.9), Matsuzaka has given up more than double that in his eight starts this year and permits 2.22 baserunners per inning. Righties are hitting .412 against him with a .511 BABIP, and his walk rate is still extremely high (4.6 per nine innings). He has yet to complete six innings in a start this year. There has to be something wrong with him physically. Getting anything out of him the rest of the season would be a plus.

It never hurts to win the first eight games against the Yankees

Against all other teams in the majors this year, Boston is 46-34 and New York is 51-29. But when the two teams play each other, the Red Sox have a pretty incredible 8-0 edge. And that's the difference between the Yankees leading the AL East by five games and the Red Sox being in front by three.

For most of this decade, baseball's premier rivalry has been fairly evenly matched. Boston and New York have beaten the other one at least eight times in each of the last seven seasons. From the beginning of 2002 through 2005, their record was 45-45 in head-to-head play. Last year, the two teams played to a 9-9 draw. So what has happened so far this season is basically like flipping eight coins and having them all come up as heads. The probability of that occurring, by the way, is 1 in 256 (0.4 percent).

What's been most exciting is that the Red Sox don't seem to be lucking into these wins. They've beaten the Yankees in a variety of ways--a shootout (15-11, a game that also featured Boston's biggest comeback against New York in 41 years), an extra-innings game (5-4 in 11), a come-from-behind win late in the game (4-3, scoring three runs in the bottom of the eighth), three one-run wins, a shutout, a victory against all five of New York's starters, and sweeps in Boston and New York. It's been a perfect storm of sorts.

I mentioned this in an entry earlier in the season, but it seems like the tables have turned in terms of roster composition. Boston is the group of grizzled playoff veterans with excellent, reliable pitching (along with a decent offense), whereas New York has a stronger group of bats but much more inconsistent arms (especially in the bullpen, other than Mariano Rivera). So this recent dominance might not just be a temporary thing--though it's probably safe to say that 18-0 is out of the question.

Ortiz's power is making a return...just don't be expect him to carry the offense anymore

It's been a wild first 88 games for a guy who used to be one of the most feared hitters in baseball. At the end of May, he was still hitting well below the Mendoza line (.185) with only one home run and 18 RBIs in 178 at bats. He was briefly dropped all the way down to seventh in the order.

Now, miraculously, Ortiz is up to 12 homers--which is more than Todd Helton, one of the guys who Boston is rumored to be pursuing, has hit in 2009. Big Papi had a scorching-hot June, equaling his RBI total from the first two months of the season to go along with a 1.062 OPS. His batting average in July is down to .200, but half of his eight hits have left the yard and three-fourths of them have gone for extra bases.

It should probably be noted that 10 of Ortiz's 12 home runs have come at Fenway Park (where he has a .504 slugging percentage) this year, and that one-third of his longballs were in interleague play against the weaker National League. He has victimized the Yankees three times, though.

Ortiz is still valuable to this Red Sox lineup. Boston is 17-2 when Big Papi homers or picks up multiple hits (including 6-0 when he does both). The problem is that he's making a significant impact less than one-quarter of the time. His walk rate of 12 percent is his lowest since 2004, and his strikeout rate is his highest ever in significant action. Big Papi's percentage of swings outside of the strike zone is his most since Fangraphs started charting the stats for him in 2002, another somewhat troublesome sign.

Time will tell if this is a legitimate resurgence for Big Papi, or if it's just his last hurrah--there seems to be more evidence to support the latter. But appreciate it it while it lasts, because getting this many productive at bats--heck, any productive at bats--out of Big Papi seemed nearly impossible two months ago.

***

Check back for the third and final installment on Wednesday. Until then, enjoy the Home Run Derby and All-Star game--though both will feel weird without Ortiz there.

--Danny Daly (ddaly06)

Through 85 games, Boston doesn't seem like a team that should have the best record in the American League.

Star slugger David Ortiz is struggling to hit his weight, and no regular has a batting average higher than .300. Opening Day shortstop Jed Lowrie has yet to return from his wrist injury, collecting just 18 at bats so far. Daisuke Matsuzaka is on the Disabled List for the second time this year, trying to recover from a crippling case of ineffectiveness: he is 1-5 with an 8.23 ERA (still "better" than Chien-Ming Wang, but not by much). Four-fifths of the starting rotation has an ERA above 4.00, and last year's breakout ace Jon Lester was still giving up more than six runs per nine innings in late May. Two weeks ago, Boston blew a 10-1 lead against Baltimore and lost 11-10 after the bullpen gave up five runs each in the seventh and eighth innings.

But the Red Sox have persevered to the tune of a 51-34 record. Here are eight thoughts -- one for each of Dice-K's disastrous starts -- about how they've done it and what the season might hold after the All-Star break. They will be broken up into multiple posts, with the first one today:

If the season ended now, Boston's bullpen would deserve the team's MVP

Early in the season, the Red Sox rotation was in shambles. The big three of Lester, Matsuzaka and Josh Beckett were prone to big innings and failed to work deep into games, putting a lot of strain on the bullpen. And the relievers responded in a big way.

It's hard enough to acquire two or three reliable bullpen arms. But the Sox have seven: Jonathan Papelbon, Manny Delcarmen, Hideki Okajima, Ramon Ramirez, Takashi Saito, Justin Masterson and Daniel Bard. That group has been instrumental to Boston's successful first half, and the biggest advantage it has over New York. While manager Terry Francona has had to rely on his relievers too much--and it's shown lately, as the 'pen has picked up four losses in the last 10 games--at least there have been plenty of options to spread around the workload.

If anything, the problem right now is that there are too many pitchers that need consistent work. Masterson hasn't been particularly effective recently, but he has been pitching very infrequently--multiple innings one night, then two-thirds of an inning in the next four games. It's tough to get into a rhythm that way, especially for a former starter who probably belongs in the rotation anyway. It's obviously better to have that issue than to be in a position where there aren't enough good relievers, but it's still an issue that needs to be resolved nonetheless. If anyone gets traded, Saito might be the most likely possibility for an NL team in desperate need of low-risk bullpen help.

While Ramirez and Papelbon sport stellar ERAs, there are a couple of warning signs with them as well. The main one for the former, received in an offseason trade for Coco Crisp, is his home run rate. He's already given up twice as many gopher balls this year (four) as last year (two), and he's done it in half as many innings. He's also striking out fewer batters than usual, though that should straighten itself out over time. As for Papelbon, his walk rate has skyrocketed in 2009--he has already issued a career-high 18 free passes, 10 more than he did last season. Additionally, he's giving up home runs at an increased rate and opposing batters are hitting .241 off of him--up nearly 100 points from two years ago. As a result, his WHIP is a very average 1.37.

Unquestionably, the bullpen has been vital to what the Red Sox have already been able to accomplish. But as this recent stretch suggests, it's unlikely to expect a repeat performance in the second half unless Francona subjects it to less wear and tear.

--Danny Daly (ddaly06)

Tim Wakefield has reached 10 wins faster than at any time in his career. The 42-year-old pitcher is getting better, not worse as his career reaches its twilight. Does this not send out red flags to anyone else?

He went 10-11 last year and battled injuries. The Red Sox stocked the starting rotation with seven pitchers over the off-season and have a couple of studs developing in the minor leagues. Wakefield’s status on the team was tenouous.

And he’s coming off the controversy of the past few years when he realized that he was tipping his pitches. Some batters saw things that led them to know exactly when Wake was going to throw his patented knuckleball. (One giant clue was when he took the hill to pitch. Another was when he threw the ball toward home plate.) It was a devastating blow to Wakefield’s pitching arsenal.

So now Wakefield has as many wins by the All-Star break as he had all of last year.

Obviously, Wakefield reacted to what was the game passing him by, unwilling to relinquish his role and $4 million paycheck on the team. He was driven to passing Roger Clemens on the all-time Red Sox list for games won. And batters being on to his pitch selection would seriously jeopardize this.

The most damning evidence is that his knuckleball is being clocked regularly at 78 mph whereas his whole career, it averaged only 77.8 mph. Is it just a favorable tail wind in some of the newer ballparks? Is it a longer finger nail on his index finger? Or is it, dare I say, that of which we do not speak?

It makes total sense. His career ERA is down from 4.32 to an anemic 4.18. How?

I think we cannot continue to turn our backs to this type of irresponsible behavior by major leaguers, nee role models, trying to get a couple more miles out of worn tires.

Well, it’s worked for Tim, for what it’s worth. Batters no longer seem to know when you’re going to throw your knuckler. You’re winning games consistently now when in the past, you used to win and lose games. But at what cost? We’ll surely figure out your deception once your knuckler comes in touch with a humid night, a stiff breeze or, the batters get more practice. Then what?

Your ERA will skyrocket back to your career average and the witch hunt will begin, leaving you a broken man who had won only 178 games before this year and stolen at least 10 more this year -- a tainted frame in an otherwise consistent career. Oh, where have you gone, Joe DiMaggio?

How will Tim be able to look himself in the mirror after -- what’s that? Phil Niekro won 85 games after turning 42? ... Really? ... Go figure ... Okay, y’know what? ... Forget what I just said ... Please vote for Tim Wakefield for the All-Star game as a reward for his hard work and consistency throughout the years! --- Andy Wasif.

Read more of Andy Wasif on his SportsFanLive page and his own site, The Wasif.

Sorry it's been a while -- more original content will be posted soon. As the Red Sox are quickly approaching the season's midway point, here is a small sampling of what others are writing about them:

--Finally, someone is willing to admit that the Daisuke Matsuzaka signing is looking more and more disastrous by the start. Fortunately, he won't be making any more of them anytime soon.

--David Ortiz has five home runs since June 5th and is hitting .308 with a slugging percentage of .654 for the month. Many signs are pointing towards this version of Big Papi being closer to the one we can expect to see for the rest of the season.

--Red Sox Nation travels as well as any fan base in professional sports, particularly to parks in smaller markets where the hoards of Boston fans can outnumber the home fans. Expect this to happen in Washington during the next three games.

Mike Lowell returns to the lineup tonight, and John Smoltz makes his season debut on Thursday. So, even though this series is against the lowly Nationals, there are some interesting storylines to follow.

--Danny Daly (ddaly06)

The first three rounds of the MLB Amateur draft took place Tuesday night, giving the Red Sox an opportunity to add even more talent to their thriving farm system. (Which Sports Illustrated ranked as the second-most successful during the past 10 years -- click here for the article.) Boston had three picks, all of them among the last five of each round -- an uncharacteristically simple haul, as the Sox missed out on the supplemental round action because they didn't gain or lose anyone especially significant.

High school outfielder Reymond Fuentes was selected in the first round, college right-hander Alex Wilson was snagged in the second and high school shortstop David Renfroe was taken in the third.

Below, I have broken down each player individually based on scouting reports I've read from various outlets. (ESPN's Keith Law has 100-200 word briefs on the top prospects here, but it's only available to Insiders. MLB.com is also a good resource.) I obviously haven't seen any of them play in person, nor am I a certified draft expert. And it's too way early to predict how these prospects will develop, anyway. But overall, I think it's a puzzling start to the draft.

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Reymond Fuentes (Prep OF, Puerto Rico)

The tendency of general manager Theo Epstein and his staff to draft smaller, speedier hitters has been pointed out in previous posts. Well, Fuentes (a nephew of Carlos Beltran) seems to fit the mold as well. He has a 6-foot, 160-pound frame -- suggesting that he has minimal power potential. Clearly he has the potential to build muscle, but it's doubtful that he'll become the 30-35 home run threat the Sox have not been able to develop. In fact, by all accounts, he most likely projects as a leadoff hitter. That's nice, except Jacoby Ellsbury is basically the same player at the same position. So I don't quite understand what the idea behind this pick was -- especially with a fair number of the top-ranked catching prospects still on the board. Plus, he likely won't end up hitting enough to move to a corner outfield spot.

Now, Boston has enough talent and depth that it can take a chance on a high-upside pick like this, give him time to develop, and hope he reaches his potential. Of course, one major problem is that the last prep outfielder that Epstein took (Jason Place, with the 27th pick in the 2006 draft) has not panned out thus far. His career strikeout-to-walk ratio is nearly 3:1, and he is still in high-A ball. Granted, Place is only 21, but after hitting 19 homers for Lancaster in the hitter-friendly California League (in which teams averaged scoring 5.17 runs per game), he has two dingers and is slugging less than .400 in the Carolina League (in which teams score half of a run fewer per game than in the CALL).

Time will tell whether or not Fuentes (and Place, for that matter) was a good choice. I guess the Red Sox didn't really have any glaring needs to address. I'm just not convinced that there weren't better options on the table, even considering Fuentes' raw talent. But an organization as well-run as Boston's is probably the best place for him to reach that potential, so I'll withhold judgment for now.

Alex Wilson (College RHP, Texas A&M)

This pick I understand even less than the Fuentes one. Epstein is always looking to add young, live arms to the system (Daniel Bard, Jonathan Papelbon, Clay Buccholz and, less successfully, Craig Hansen come to mind), but the broad-shouldered, 6-foot-1 Wilson underwent Tommy John surgery two years ago and has to be considered somewhat of an injury concern for that reason.

According to the accounts I read, Wilson hits 95 miles per hour with his fastball and has a very effective mid-80s slider to complement it. He is also turning 23 years old this off-season, which suggests that he should be ready for the big leagues fairly soon if all goes according to plan. But considering his pitch arsenal, injury history and release point (he supposedly has a three-quarter delivery), I wonder if he might end up in the bullpen when all is said and done. At Texas A&M, he was jettisoned from the rotation in the middle of the spring but did not have the same strikeout numbers in the pen.

My guess is that he's more insurance in case Jonathan Papelbon leaves as a free agent in a couple of years, or he could serve as a valuable trade chip to go get the power bat they're currently lacking. I know this was a weak draft for hitters overall, but still -- it would be nice to see the Sox develop that bat themselves one of these days.

David Renfroe (Prep SS, Mississippi)

Renfroe has the potential to be the most intriguing of Boston's three picks, at least from where I'm sitting. But his selection was still a bit of a head-scratcher, because Boston already has Jed Lowrie in mind as its long-term solution at short and drafted Florida prep shortstop Casey Kelly in the first round a year ago. Actually, the reports I've read suggest that he and Kelly possess extremely similar skill sets: in addition to playing shortstop, both also pitched and quarterbacked for their football team in high school.

Kelly struggled greatly last season as a hitter, batting .173 in rookie league ball, and it seems like the Sox are trying him out exclusively on the mound this season -- with great returns, as he is 6-2 with a 1.37 ERA in A and high-A ball. (Kelly's transition makes the Wilson choice even more peculiar, upon further review.) So drafting Renfroe might be a signal that Kelly is no longer considered an option as a hitter. Renfroe's stature (6-foot-3, 200 pounds) also signals that he might switch to third base at some point (perhaps as the future replacement for Mike Lowell?), and reports indicate that he wouldn't have a problem making the move. Some scouts have even drawn comparisons to another David -- New York Mets' hot corner star David Wright.

Like Fuentes, Renfroe has good baseball bloodlines -- his father Laddie bounced around in the minors as a pitcher for nine years and had a cup of coffee with the Chicago Cubs in 1991. Hopefully David will stick as a hitter and be a much-needed impact corner-infield bat for years to come.

***

Rounds 4-30 will be completed on Wednesday, and I would wager that the Sox land a couple of guys who have slipped because of signability concerns and pay over-slot to lock them up. It would be nice to see a catcher among the Day Two selections. Max Stassi, whom some mock drafts had going to Boston in the first round, is still on the board for some reason. It would be great if he's still there tomorrow at the bottom of the fourth round. If not, hopefully Epstein and Co. will manage to find a couple of diamonds in the rough--and guys who provide more reason for excitement than the ones taken today.

--Danny Daly (ddaly06)

Dear Theo Epstein,

It's understandable that you're getting a little bit anxious.

Even including the three-game sweep in Detroit, your team is 12-11 in its past 23 games. Josh Beckett and Jon Lester are finally starting to come around, but David Ortiz is still mired in a terrible slump and is so desperate that he's having his eyes checked. Shortstops Julio Lugo and Nick Green have been average to above-average at the plate and dreadful in the field while replacing the injured Jed Lowrie. The lineup has held out nicely even considering Big Papi's struggles, but it is still lacking some punch.

You also have a surplus of pitching, particularly young pitching. First basemen/designated hitter types like Baltimore's Aubrey Huff and Washington's Nick Johnson are on the trading block, and both clubs need more arms. Maybe Oakland outfielder Matt Holliday can be had for slightly below-market value because the Athletics are struggling. Smells like a good idea to investigate a trade, right?

Well, on behalf of Red Sox nation, I'm begging you not to.

Mr. Epstein, you've undoubtedly done a terrific job with the farm system. Sure, you've had some major misses, like Craig Hansen, but on the whole, Boston serves as a model for drafting and developing young talent. Dustin Pedroia, Jacoby Ellsbury, Jonathan Papelbon, Jon Lester--you get the idea.

The current young crop of talent has as much potential as any. Clay Buchholz (if he concentrates more on his pitching than his Playboy Playmate girlfriend), Michael Bowden, Lars Anderson, Josh Reddick, Daniel Bard, Junichi Tazawa, Justin Masterson -- all of them are capable of making an impact on the major league level, and sooner rather than later.

On trades and high-profile free agent signings? Well, let's just say your record on that front in recent years leaves something to be desired. You shelled out five years and $70 million for J.D. Drew, four years and $40 million for Edgar Renteria, four years and $36 million for Julio Lugo, and six years and $100+ million for Daisuke Matsuzaka (including the money you bid for his rights). You've traded for Coco Crisp, Eric Gagne, Javy Lopez, Wily Mo Pena and Doug Mirabelli (after trading him a few months before) ... not a pretty list, especially because one or more productive major league players were given up in each deal.

The trade for Josh Beckett and Mike Lowell occurred during your hiatus from the Red Sox and power struggle with Larry Lucchino. You deserve credit for the Manny Ramirez trade, but re-signing Bay is a necessity. Going back a little ways, the deal for Curt Schilling was a brilliant one, and the mid-season deal for Orlando Cabrera and Doug Mientkiewicz was great from a team chemistry and defense standpoint (albeit only in the short term). Then again, you also managed to deal future batting champion Freddy Sanchez, among others, to Pittsburgh for two months of Jeff Suppan.

If you want to make a smaller deal around the deadline, like flipping Brad Penny (who by then should be expendable if John Smoltz comes back strong) for a useful part, fine. But trying to swing a major deal and change the dynamic of the club? Sorry, but your track record suggests that won't end well. Be patient, and have faith in your younger players and the squad you assembled before the year.

Respectfully yours,

Danny Daly (ddaly06)

P.S. If you can pry Adrian Gonzalez away from San Diego for a somewhat reasonable price ... well, all bets are off then.