Red Sox Diaries

OK, let's play a game called "Guess the Player." Below are the close and late statistics for an unknown active Player A and Player B. Kansas City Star sports columnist Joe Posnanski likes doing this from time to time. (If you don't read his blog, do yourself a favor and start...now.) Anyway, here they are:

Player A: .322 BA, .413 OBP, .733 SLG, 33 HR, 102 RBI (307 AB over 4 years) Player B: .230 BA, .366 OBP, .367 SLG, 3 HR, 22 RBI (139 AB over 2 years)

Obviously, the second sample size is considerably smaller. But still, that's a pretty stark contrast: I think there's enough data to see a trend and make a few judgments. Player A has had a mind-boggling 18 walk-off hits, eight of which came in September or October; Player B has had just one.

You should already have figured out by now that Player A is David Ortiz. So is Player B.

Yeah, maybe that's cheating. But pretty amazing, right? (Here are the full statistics, from baseball-reference.com). There has been all sorts of debate by statheads about whether or not clutch hitting is a skill that some players are more adept at than others. Nate Silver of Baseball Prospectus has a whole chapter on it in his book, "Baseball Between the Numbers." Research suggests that such ability might exist to a certain extent, but it's not very significant because of how clutch statistics vary from year to year. Plus, it doesn't seem to deviate greatly from how a batter performs in the rest of his at-bats, or at least it doesn't over an extended period of time.

David Ortiz has been the most recent example that most people point to when they argue in favor of clutch hitting ability. What he did from 2003 to 2006 (Player A) was pretty compelling evidence. He was knocking balls out of the park at a rate of one per 9.3 AB in those close and late situations. He was almost Tiger Woods-like: Big Papi seemingly came up with a big hit every time he had a chance to, just like Tiger makes every putt he has to down the stretch. Of course, there have been times when they didn't come through -- heck, they're still human -- but the instances in which they've succeeded have been so memorable and plentiful that the few failures are forgotten. The Boston Globe has a slideshow of Ortiz's 19 walk-off hits in a Red Sox uniform.

Since the end of 2006, it has been a completely different story for the affable designated hitter from the Dominican Republic. Overall, Ortiz's 2007 season was one of his best, but he only worked his late-game magic once (though, in his defense, he had a spectacular postseason as Boston won its second World Series in four years). Then last year, he wasn't able to pull off any walk-off heroics and hit below the Mendoza Line when it was close and late. In the playoffs, where his stardom flourished in 2004, Ortiz batted a measly .186 with one homer.

Now, there are all sorts of mitigating factors at play here, perhaps the most prominent of which is injuries. Ortiz played with a torn meniscus in his right knee two years ago, and he struggled with various knee and wrist ailments last season. He was also diagnosed with an irregular heart beat in late 2006, but I'm not sure if that's really had any last effects.

And let's face it, he isn't getting any younger. He's never been particularly fit, either, and players with his skill set and body type tend not to age well. Many have compared him to Mo Vaughn, who was out of baseball when he was 35 and had his last productive season three years before then (and before the Mets traded for him).

I think Ortiz's career arc is remarkably similar to that of Ted Kluszewski, a hulking first baseman for the Cincinnati Reds in the 1940s and 50s. He showed flashes of power in his first five years in the majors, then exploded at age 28 for 35+ homers in four consecutive seasons. But Kluszewski fell off a cliff and went yard just 34 times the rest of his career, reaching double digits in a season only once. Jason Giambi is another decent reference point. (Save for the whole BALCO thing...) While he still possesses great power, Giambi has only hit higher than .255 in one of his last six seasons (in other words, since turning 32).

Also, since last year's trading deadline, Ortiz has been missing the luxury of having Manny Ramirez hit behind him. Who knows how much of a role that's played -- Kevin Youkilis has held up his end of the bargain and is tearing the cover off the ball in the cleanup spot. But it certainly didn't hurt to have one of the most feared sluggers in the game on deck, at least in terms of potentially seeing better pitches to hit.

Ortiz's decline has gotten a fair amount of publicity, especially because he has not bounced back as many hoped he would so far this season. It goes without saying that it's too early to be overly concerned, though he has not been particularly productive in his last couple of Aprils.

But more than his subpar raw numbers, what worries me the most are at-bats like the one he had on Tuesday night (or Wednesday morning, depending on where you were watching from) against Oakland. The Sox loaded the bases for him with two outs in the top of the 10th inning -- not a walk-off situation, but one in which he usually came through when he was in his heyday of being Captain Clutch. Brad Ziegler, a right-handed submariner, was pitching for the Athletics. He started off by throwing two straight balls to Ortiz, which was probably not something he wanted to do. Hitters like Big Papi are especially dangerous with a 2-0 count.

So Ortiz was in a clutch situation, with the platoon advantage, ahead in the count and facing a pitcher who doesn't throw particularly hard. But he still proceeded to pop the next pitch up, and A's second baseman Mark Ellis camped under it for the third out of the inning. The Sox never had a runner in scoring position again and lost after Javier Lopez melted down all-too-predictably.

But it's the top of the 10th that stuck with me. I strongly believed Ortiz was going to bang a bases-clearing double off the wall, or at the very least line a single up the middle. Maybe my expectations were unreasonable -- maybe Ortiz is on the downside of his career or just hasn't come back from his injuries well enough to be able to pick up that hit. Maybe clutch hitting is just a myth after all, and it's predominantly unpredictable or dependent on how the player is swinging the bat at the time. Ortiz has struggled this season and was 0-for-4 to that point in the game.

Whatever the reason, it just wasn't meant to be, I guess. But if he's not stepping up, someone else has to start doing so and fill that sizable void. Hopefully for Boston, Ortiz returns to wreck havoc on opposing pitchers, just like old times.

Theo Epstein and the rest of the front office can't rely on hope, though. They need to have another option or two just in case, because that lineup is downright anemic with Ortiz not hitting his weight. It looks like Lars Anderson might break into the majors a lot sooner than most expected.

--Danny Daly (ddaly06)