Red Sox Diaries

After yesterday's false start, it looks like Boston's season will finally get underway today. According to weather.com, the temperature is around 50 degrees today with wind gusts of 15 to 20 mph and only about a 1-in-3 chance of rain.

Before the game, I thought I'd give a quick rundown of what we can expect from this Red Sox team over the next six (well, hopefully seven) months:

The Lineup

This is undoubtedly the area where the Red Sox have the most question marks, which is interesting because historically this team never seems to have a shortage of guys who can smash the ball. When they won their two World Series in 2004 and 2007, the Sox ranked in the top 3 of just about every major offensive category.

But after failing to reel in Mark Teixeira or swing a trade for Jared Saltalamacchia, Theo Epstein has to hope that some of his stars return to their pre-injury form for the lineup to remain potent in its first full year without Manny Ramirez. A lot of the slack is going to have to be picked up by David Ortiz, who was hampered by a wrist injury most of last year and posted his worst numbers since arriving in Beantown. They're also going to need a healthy, productive year out of J.D. Drew, who has only justified his $70 million contract during two months of his Red Sox career thus far (October in '07 and June of last year). Kevin Youkilis had an MVP-caliber season last year and assumed cleanup-hitting duties after the Ramirez trade--Boston needs an encore performance out of him. And Jason Bay will be relied on to provide those three with some protection.

The middle of the lineup needs people on base to drive in, which means Jacoby Ellsbury needs to show vast improvement in the leadoff spot. He played a lot more like Coco Crisp last year than the sparkplug who hit .353 in a September callup and .360 in the postseason the year before. His .336 OBP of a year ago needs to be at least 20 to 30 points higher, or Terry Francona will be looking for a new table setter even though Ellsbury has the requisite speed (50 stolen bases last season). Perhaps the only sure thing in this lineup is reigning AL MVP Dustin Pedroia, who figures to hit behind Ellsbury in the order. He was also successful on 20 out of 21 stolen base attempts last year and committed just six errors, making him as complete a player as Boston has.

What ultimately doomed this team in the ALCS against Tampa Bay was the ineptitude of the bottom of the order, and that issue doesn't seem to have been addressed. They're hoping Mike Lowell bounces back from his assorted ailments to put up decent numbers in the seventh spot, but he's on the downside of his career and if he shows any lingering effects then Boston could be in trouble. Jed Lowrie got off to a quick start replacing Julio Lugo but only hit .211 in September and October. The struggles of Jason Varitek at the plate last year were well-documented, and even though he is an invaluable clubhouse presence and handler of pitchers, he can't spend another season flirting with the Mendoza line.

The Rotation

Boston's lineup might be lacking in firepower, but they have enough quality starting pitchers for two teams. Josh Beckett, Jon Lester and Daisuke Matsuzaka all have ace-caliber stuff and could headline a lot of team's rotations (especially when you consider that Ricky Nolasco, John Lannan, Aaron Cook, Dallas Braden and Paul Maholm were some of the Opening Day starters).

Hopefully Beckett's injury problems are all sorted out so he can look more like the Cy Young runner-up of 2007. His strikeout-to-walk ratio has increased in each of his three years in a Red Sox uniform, which is a promising sign, but his gopher ball rate also spiked last season. It'll be interesting to see which Josh Beckett shows up, and we'll get a good idea starting this afternoon.

Lester completed his comeback after being non-Hodgkins lymphoma in 2006 and rewarded Epstein for not throwing him in a potential deal for Johan Santana last winter. One of the keys to his success last year was that he stopped nibbling around the plate as much, and his walk and pitches-per-inning rates dropped. He's also the only lefty in the rotation.

Speaking of trying to be too exact, Matsuzaka needs to follow Lester's lead. Dice-K has shown flashes of brilliance, but that 2.90 ERA in 2008 is a bit misleading considering how often he had to work out of trouble. Opposing batters only mustered a .211 average with 12 home runs against Matsuzaka last year, but their Batting Average on Balls In Play (BABIP) was .260. This is as much of a luck-based stat as anything--the league average hovers around .290, so Dice-K might not be as fortunate this year.

There are any number of different options for the bottom of the rotation. They'll start the year with knuckleballer Tim Wakefield and Brad Penny, but there will almost certainly be a spot for John Smoltz when he returns from rehabbing his shoulder at the beginning of June. If Wakefield (who surprisingly led all Sox starters in WHIP last season) and Penny (who hopes to rebound from a disastrous 2008) are in top form, he might help shore up the bullpen instead. Their minor league system also has a plethora of young arms, including Clay Buccholz.

The Bullpen

Francona could only rely on a few arms down the stretch last season, but he'll have plenty of options this year. Jonathan Papelbon will take care of the ninth inning as usual, though batters hit significantly better against him last year than in the previous two (.223 versus .146 and .167). He'll have Hideki Okajima setting him up again, but Epstein also acquired Takashi Saito (who has closing experience) through free agency and Ramon Ramirez in the Coco Crisp trade. Both should be in the late-inning mix as well. Scouts were apparently particularly impressed with Ramirez this spring. Saito has had some injury problems, but if he stays healthy he might be one of the biggest bargain pickups of the offseason.

Manny Delcarmen and Javier Lopez had nice seasons in 2008, but were also unreliable at times. Delcarmen especially had a poor ALCS against Tampa Bay, but he will be better working the earlier innings. Justin Masterson is also a key contributor and will see his share of innings after emerging as one of the most promising young arms in the game, but he will most likely be a starter in the long run (or at least he should be). In all, it's a very deep group that should keep opponents off the board in the late innings.

The Bench

The Red Sox start the season with catcher George Kottaras, infielder Nick Green and outfielders Chris Carter and Rocco Baldelli riding the pine. In other words, not a very impressive group. Baldelli has the most upside of the bunch and will provide insurance in case (or rather, when) J.D. Drew gets hurt. Mark Kotsay will get some at bats when he comes off the disabled list and will give Francona some flexibility to move Youkilis over to third and sit Lowell because he can play first base. Lugo also starts the year on the DL and could end up starting upon his return if Lowrie struggles, but to this point Lugo has yet to remind anyone why exactly he makes $9 million a year.

Another storyline to keep an eye on is whether Kottaras will be able to handle Wakefield's knuckleball--many catchers (Josh Bard comes to mind, and Varitek has never really worked well with Wake) have had trouble in the past. Epstein might have to go get someone if Kottaras isn't up for the task, like when he had to bring Doug Mirabelli (Wakefield's personal catcher from 2002-2005) back from San Diego just one month into the 2006 season.

The Farm System

Boston's future is definitely bright. Buchholz starts the year in Triple A but should get called up by midseason if he keeps pitching like he did this spring (2-0, 2.52 ERA in six starts) rather than last season (2-9, 6.75 ERA and almost single-handedly costing Boston the division). Michael Bowden is a consensus top-100 prospect and is pretty close to being ready, and 22-year-old Junichi Tazawa was signed over from Japan this winter and will start in Double A. The Sox also have Daniel Bard, a flamethrowing reliever who may allow Masterson to return to the rotation in the future, and Lars Anderson, who could start at first next year if Lowell struggles and Youkilis moves across the diamond to replace him.

Final Thoughts

Ok, maybe that wasn't such a "quick" rundown after all. But if the lineup holds up, Boston is looking at another playoff appearance, even in baseball's toughest division. If it doesn't and the situation becomes dire, Epstein has the pieces to make a midseason trade.

The health of guys like Ortiz, Lowell, Drew, Penny, Smoltz and Saito will play a large role in how this season plays out. But barring any catastrophes, 95-plus wins seems like a pretty safe bet.

The best part is that starting today, we get to observe what happens rather than speculate what might. Let the games begin!

--Danny Daly (ddaly06)