Red Sox Diaries

Friday night's 5-4 loss in Seattle highlighted the struggles of another high-profile player key to Boston's World Series chances. After throwing a no-hitter and emerging as a reliable ace last year, lefty Jon Lester is off to the slowest start of his young career.

The 25-year-old gave up five runs in 5.2 innings against the Mariners, raising his ERA to 6.51 for the season. Opponents are hitting .312 against Lester with 10 home runs (only four short of his total during the 2008 season). He has been charged with the loss in four of his eight outings after dropping just eight of his first 60 regular season appearances.

Lester's biggest problems so far have come when trying to work through trouble. He has been especially prone to the big inning this season, allowing three runs or more in a single frame five times. In 2008, at least three runners scored in an inning against him eight times (including playoffs). But it was an issue that got more pronounced as the season progressed--this occurred in six of his final 20 starts (including playoffs), including in Game 3 of the American League Championship Series against Tampa Bay.

What makes Lester's poor performance especially puzzling is that his strikeout rate is higher than it has ever been. He has fanned 54 batters in 47 innings, an average of 10.3 per nine. His previous best ratio was 7.1 K/9 in 2007. He also had two solid starts against the New York Yankees.

Now, Lester's sky-high opponents' batting average figure is mainly a product of their astronomical BABIP of .392--as that regresses to the mean, his ERA should drop. His FIP of 4.78--about a run and a half lower than his ERA--takes that into account and rewards him for his bigger strikeout totals (while also punishing him for his increasing tendency to give up the gopher ball).

The baseline statistics (namely, record and ERA) might make it seem like Lester has been pitching worse than he actually is, but he still is not performing at anywhere near the level that the Red Sox need him to. Lester's velocity and strikeout totals suggest that aftereffects from throwing substantially more innings last season than he had in any other professional season is not at the root of his issues, which is a good sign.

But perhaps no anecdote sums up Lester's series of subpar starts better than this: Ichiro Suzuki had his first multi-home run game in almost four years on Friday, going deep in the fifth and sixth innings. Wondering about when else he has performed this feat? The last time was in a 3-2 win against the Cleveland Indians and C.C. Sabathia (back then he still had the periods in between his initials) on July 30, 2005. He also went yard twice off of Tanyon Sturtze in a 4-3 loss to Tampa Bay on July 13, 2002, and against Kevin Appier in a 8-4 win over the Los Angeles Angels (and I'm pretty sure they still had the "of Anaheim" qualifier then) on June 17, 2003. To put it in context, you are far less likely to see Ichiro hit two homers than you are to see David Ortiz steal a base (10 swipes in his career). Speaking of Ortiz, it REALLY shows you how much he is floundering when even Ichiro is knocking them over the fence. (A quick aside to this aside: bravo to manager Terry Francona for finally sitting him down for a series--it's a little late, and he still should have been dropped in the order before now, but unfortunately it's the right move.)

We should have a better idea after Lester's next few starts about whether these five weeks have been a fluke, or if there is legitimate reason for concern. The Red Sox can't afford it to be the latter.

--Danny Daly (ddaly06)

“I’m Shipping up to Boston” is playing on the speakers. The fist pumps and screaming follow with emphatic high fives coming after.

In Jonathan Papelbon, the Red Sox have the best show in all of baseball, if not the best closer as well. The excitement he brings to the yard each time he comes in to close a game out might be matched only by a Big Papi home run in extra frames. He’s about as sure a thing as you can get (the Cubs losing in the playoffs might be the only other comparison).

One of the most electrifying players in recent baseball memory is about to enter his prime at age 28. His contract of one year for $6.25 million with incentives is a lot less than what Francisco Rodriguez will receive in his last year of service for the Mets (a cool 17.5 million). For the next two years, Papelbon will be under salary arbitration, which means he will most likely stay with the Red Sox until his time for free agency comes. But at that point, it’s very safe to say, he will consider if not actually test the free agent market. The economic recession will have eased (God-willing) meaning a more lucrative seller’s market. Papelbon is among the top closers in the league, the same league in which almost half of each division doesn’t have a bonafide closer. Unfortunately for Sox fans, it is a very likely scenario that Paps will take off to the highest bidder.

Now that is unfortunate to say the least. But much like always, there is a contingency plan. Daniel Bard, starter turned reliever, was called up three days ago to take Javier Lopez’s place. (This move makes me giddy. Find out why, here.) Bard was drafted in the first round as a starting pitcher, but after struggling at the lowest levels, posting an ERA of 7.02 and a BB/9 of 9.04, Boston hierarchy shifted him to the ‘pen. It paid off at the tune of 1.44 ERA in 93 2/3 innings pitched from ’08 to the start of ’09 spending time between AA and A in ’08 and AAA this year. In ’08 he had a ridiculous FIP of 1.34 at A before becoming a little more human at AA with a FIP of 3.16. And though ’09 only offers a small sample, good things can only be seen in his AAA FIP of 2.33. (For those who missed it, here’s an explanation of FIP.)

At five years younger than Papelbon, he gives them a legitimate late-inning option and an apparent heir to the closer position. The flamethrower sits high-90s with triple digits on occasion. He mixes it well with a sharp slider in the low 80s and a bigger, dipping slider in the high 70s.

Where does this leave Boston management and fans? With a lot lower blood pressure. For now, the back end finally seems to steady with a bridge to the Irish Jig. For later, well, 101 MPH is pretty damn good.

--Orangeandblack6

The Red Sox were rolling. They were pitching and hitting their way to 11 straight wins. Then, they lost to the Indians. Eleven of their past 12 is incredible. So why should the end of a streak worry Red Sox Nation? The politically correct reason would be that their bullpen faltered and cost them a game that they could have and should have won. The more direct reason: Javier Lopez. In an otherwise stellar effort from the backend of the Sox staff, Lopez cost them the game, has cost them many games in the past and will continue to do so.

Sure, he's looked pretty the past three years in Boston with ERAs of 2.70, 3.10 and 2.43, but looking much deeper gives us a completely different story. Most telling of all numbers is since 2007 to the present day, in 147 appearances, 43 times he has allowed at least as many baserunners as he has gotten outs. Now given his label as a lefty specialist, that's not a very good set of numbers. Looking even further, Lopez has a .BAA of .282 with men on base; nearly three of every 10 batters he faces with men on will record a hit. That's not pretty. It exposes one reason why his ERA is relatively low: the runs that score when he's pitching are sometimes not technically his runners, meaning when they score they count towards someone else's ERA. Then he leaves with runners of his own on base and another reliever has to come clean up his mess.

That's not it, either. From '07-'08, Lopez held a WHIP of 1.33, not including his sky-high 2+ WHIP this year. If you take a further breakdown of that stat, he walked 27 batters while only striking out 38 in 2008. He walks two guys for every three strikeouts. Not too much of a specialist if you ask me.

Now all these numbers are fine and dandy, and I can write all day about how bad he is, but let's put it into context. Look no further than the Rays, J.P. Howell is their "lefty-specialist." How do his 2008 numbers stack up? Howell had a .BAA of .169 with RISP to Lopez's .282. Howell runs a WHIP of just over 1.10, .2 lower than Lopez, while he strikes out nearly three guys for each he walks (39/92 overall with 15 K's and 30 BB's against lefties to Lopez's 19(!)/26.)

Another telling stat is the difference between these two players in FIP. FIP stands for Fielding Independent Pitching, a personal favorite stat of mine that estimates the ERA of a pitcher if the defense was normalized to a league average. (Here's a great explanation of this stat.) Howell ended 2008 with a strong FIP of 3.39. Lopez? He ended '08 with a FIP of 4.19 and is currently running around with a 6.50 FIP. The difference between a true lefty-specialist and late-inning fireman is clear. Lopez? Not one of them.

Sure, he's only one guy, and he usually only pitches to one or two batters per game. He's at the back end of the bullpen and can be at times buried into oblivion, but the Sox need a strong bullpen to keep in contention out in the AL East. One guy can blow a game here or there for the team and one game is all it takes to miss the playoffs.

All these numbers can be found at either baseball-reference.com or fangraphs.com.

--orangeandblack6