Steel City Jim

Here we are, having completed Week 15, and from a Steelers' point of view, the playoffs are a reality, although where is still up in the air. If the Steelers win on Sunday in Cleveland, they will clinch first place in the AFC North and enjoy the second seed in the AFC. This will give them a bye week and at least one home game. If they lose in Cleveland and Baltimore wins its game, the Ravens will get the bye week and at least one home game.

The Steelers, the oldest team in the league, sorely (and I use the word "sorely" advisedly) need the bye week to rest their ailing bones. So, they have a great incentive to win at Cleveland. But it would make the Browns' season if they are able to knock the Steelers off their perch. It will be the old "Turnpike Rivalry" all over again, and the Steelers better be ready for it.

Of course, there is speculation around here as to how far the Steelers can go in the playoffs. Much will depend on the health of one Troy Polamalu. Polamalu makes things happen on defense. The rest of his teammates feed off him when he is in there. The dropoff to Ryan Mundy is palpable. So, with Polamalu ready and able to play, the Steelers can do all right. Without him, it can be a short playoffs.

Another factor is the possible return of Aaron Smith. When healthy, Smith makes a huge difference in the Steelers' defense. The guy is a force. But he's been out with a torn bicep since Oct. 24. They never put him on IR, hoping that he would be well enough for the playoffs. Lately, he has been lifting weights and is being fitted with a new shoulder brace. So, it looks like he could be on target to participate in the playoffs, and especially if the Steelers get the bye week. Some speculate on his effectiveness, however. They wonder how quickly he can adapt to the pace of playoff football after being out so long. But that's what they pay the coaches the big bucks ... to determine whether he is ready.

Having said all the above, it's academic that the Patriots are the odds-on favorites to win the AFC championship. They are simply playing on another level from the rest of, at least, the AFC. They kill any and all comers. It's a wonder that they lost two games this season. And the way they do it is stunning. They score two or three touchdowns before their opponents have even warmed up. Then, their defense stomps them and the game is virtually over before it begins. This pattern is evident week after week after week.

We are say that football is the ultimate team game. Obviously, all aspects of the game and all players have to be on one page to assure a win. Blockers have to block and protect, receivers must get open, etc. Some individual players are key, too. Polamalu is a good example. But when you check out the standings at or near the end of the season, one thing stands out ... those teams with a franchise quarterback are in the playoffs. You can have a franchise quarterback without a supporting cast who doesn't get in, i.e. Carson Palmer, but all teams in the playoffs have one. Here they are with the quarterback and Steel City Jim Rating:

New England: Brady A+
Baltimore: Flacco A (Couldn't crack Pitt's lineup, transferred to Delaware, and the rest is history.)
Pittsburgh: Roethlisberger A
Indianapolis P. Manning A+
Kansas City: Cassel A- (Here's that Belichick again, drafting Matt Leinart's college backup.)
Philadelphia Vick A
Atlanta: Ryan A
Chicago: Culter A-
St. Louis: Bradford B+ and coming
New Orleans: Brees A+

If you don't think franchise quarterbacks are key, just ask Ken Whisenhunt of the Cardinals.

By the way, the Lions and Browns have awakened from their long slumber, and each, with their respective franchise quarterbacks improving by the day, will make noise in 2011.

** They are playing an Ice Bowl hockey game at Heinz Field on Saturday. They actually construct an ice rink on the field and two major rivals, the Pittsburgh Penguins and Washington Capitals will square off. It's quite a spectacle that started in 2003 in Edmonton, but became a New Year's Day staple beginning with the 2008 game in Buffalo. Seats prices start at something like $145. StubHub has them for something like $450. And scalpers are getting north of $1,000! To me, that's a lot of money to spend to sit outside in January in Pittsburgh to see 1/60th of a hockey season that really doesn't start until the playoffs anyway. I'm glad to see that some people are crazy enough to pay those prices. It affords me, the armchair fan, the opportunity to see the game for nothing in the warmth of my house while the others are paying the bloated salaries that the players command and get.

** I was going to give baseball a break this week, but then The New York Times' Sunday magazine was devoted to important people who had died in 2010. One was George Steinbrenner. Now, I don't mean to demean the deceased, but this was the guy who stood at the door and refused to allow real revenue sharing of the TV take among all the teams. For me, it helped to ruin baseball, which caused my usual ending of "baseball sucks." It does, in large part thanks to George.

It was a sobering day in the Burgh. The Steelers lost. They gave up a TD on the opening kickoff and suffered an unspeakable safety. That is nine points right there. With five points behind and one timeout Ben led them down the field at the very end. They had two plays from about the 10-yard line with time running out. Twice Ben threw into the end zone. Twice receivers came up empty ... thus, the loss.

One shouldn't say this. But when a team like the Steelers are missing Troy Polamalu and Heath Miller, these are not merely names or numbers. These guys are game breakers. Spaeth, Miller's replacement, is a good tight end. But he dropped some crucial passes that Miller surely would have tucked in. Polamalu makes the whole defense better. Having played some doubles tennis over the years, I find that when I have a superior partner, I can take some risks knowing that my partner will back me up. I think the demeanor of the Steeler defense plays with more recklessness and gusto knowing he is in there. When he's not there, it's just not the same.

Oh well, it's a game of attrition, and the Steelers are lucky that they have the record they have and will play out the last two games against Carolina and Cleveland. I'm not saying that these games will be easy. Yes, I am saying they will be easy. These two wins will assure a playoff berth, and maybe, just maybe, Miller and Polamalu will be back along with Aaron Smith. Yes, Smith just may be able to play in the playoffs.

I saw the Ravens had a tough game, but they pulled it out against a very strong Saints team. I also saw the end of the Eagles-Giants game. It might have decided Coughlin's fate in New York.

** Some of you have been talking to me about Cliff Lee going back to the Phillies. For once a player left a $150 million contract on the table to accept a measly $120 million. Does anyone know the difference between $120 million and $150 million? Be that as it may, he made his decision based on his gut instinct about where he would rather play rather than on the almighty dollar. I would guess that his agent probably had a heart attack over this as I really think that agents, looking out for their cut, almost always gide their charges towards the bigger dough.

But Lee prevailed this time and with him the Phillies will have an awesome starting pitching staff. The Yankees are now stuck with an aging shortstop who will make megabucks and no obviously stellar pitcher from free agency. Ain't it a shame? The Yankees, with an aging, fat, overpaid team might just not make it to the playoffs in 2011. On the other hand, the Bosox spent a fortune on their two acquisitions, which means that baseball still sucks, but just a little less this week because the mighty Yankees struck out with Cliff Lee.

The so-called "trap game" came and went. The concern in these parts was that the Bengals might come in here and catch the Steelers unprepared and beat them. There was a temporary cause for this anxiety as the Bengals took the opening kickoff and marched 69 yards for a touchdown. They even made it look easy, although I thought some of their completed passed looked like rainbows. But it turned out that that TD was the only scoring the Bengals would accomplish, while the Steelers put 23 unanswered points on the board.

The Steelers ran up and down the field for the rest of the game, but the offense couldn't score a touchdown. Their drives were constantly hampered by penalties, mostly holding. But they were able to get far enough downfield to allow Suisham to kick field goals, three in all. But what a show the defense put on, and particularly Troy Polamalu who intercepted two Carson Palmer passes, one for a TD. (Palmer and Polamalu were roommates at USC.) LaMarr Woodley also made a pick six. And Benson, the Bengal featured runner, who predicted a 100-yard game, gained a total of 19 yards on 8 carries. In total, the Bengals gained 34 yards on the ground for the afternoon's efforts.

Some observations:

1. Randle El has become the forgotten man. He was bought back to be the No. 3 receiver behind Ward and Wallace, but two rookies, Sanders and Brown, have made so much progress that Randle El has become the fifth receiver. He hardly gets a hat anymore. But on Sunday, subbing for the temporarily injured Sanders, Randle El made a leaping, one-handed catch that will make the highlight film.

2. What can you say about Ben? With one foot and a busted nose, he sported a clear shield on his helmet designed to prevent further damage to his nose. (The surgeon who put his nose back in place last Monday said it looked like corn flakes.) But with the rain beating down the whole game, the water on the shield (no windshield wipers) blurred Ben's vision. So, he threw away the shield at halftime, exposing his nose, and had a good half.

3. The hue and cry around here revolves around officiating. It seems that all Steeler defenders have to do is touch an opposing quarterback and the refs are reaching for their flags. But on four separate occasions Sunday, Ben was roughed up and there were no flags. The refs seem to have no regards for Ben's safety. Last week in Baltimore, the guy who redirected his nose was fined thousands of dollars, but there was no flag on this flagrant infraction. The Steelers suffered at least three holding calls Sunday. Two were on successive plays. But the Bengals weren't flagged once for holding. Tape shows that Harrison was held on practically every play, and one guy tackled Woodley from behind, which even I saw on TV. No flag.

4. Interestingly, in the pre-game show on CBS, someone asked who might get Albert Haynesworth next year. Bill Cowher replied that if were coaching, he wouldn't touch Haynesworth. This is a statement he made after some experience with disruptive players he has had to deal with in the past. Plaxico Burress comes to mind, as do Joey Porter and Santonio Holmes. Cowher put up with Burress as long as he could and sent him packing. Porter's mouth and behavior got him into trouble. As effective as he was, the Steelers let him go as well. Finally, Tomlin got rid of Holmes at the end of last year. Remember, Holmes' catch won Super Bowl 43. You simply can't have malcontents and bad actors on your football team. I think that successful franchises just don't put up with this type of player. Belichick sent Moss packing this season. Football is arguably the ultimate team sport, and when you have these type of distractive players, you must get rid of them. Some people do turn themselves around. Michael Vick seems like a prime example. Ben, too, seems like a different guy since his off-season antics and subsequent suspension.

5. I was thinking of the above while watching the hapless Bengals. With Ochocinco and TO vying for attention, the team concept takes a back seat. One commentator stated that with these guys crying all the time, they get an inordinate number of passes. Opposing teams know this and load up against them. This could have led to some of the Steeler interceptions Sunday. Palmer keeps throwing to them instead of spreading the ball around, the secret to other teams' success.

6. How could the Lions have beaten the Packers? And the Dolphins defeated the vaunted Jets? I know that if Holmes had held on to the ball in the end zone, the Jets would have pulled it out. But what about the rest of the game? Where were the Jets? The Bills beat the Browns. I didn't see that coming. Yes, I know the Browns fumbled five times. You can't win when you fumble five times. But give a little credit to Chan Gailey. He's a fine coach. Boy, did the Chargers undress the Chiefs. Shut 'em out. How did that happen?

7. So much for pre-season rankings. Pitt was ranked No. 3. Tennessee killed the Panthers ... at home yet! Tennessee is a great team, but are Syracuse, Villanova, West Virginia, Connecticut and the other Big East teams chopped liver? Pitt better regroup ... and fast. There aren't any more Riders on their schedule.

8. The Penguins' streak continues ... now at 12. They play the Flyers on Tuesday night. That will be a barn burner.

9. The Pirates signed some free agents. I think I've figured them out. They sign these guys for a year hoping that one or more will have a sensational first half. Then, they trade them to a contender for some younger guys. This happened last year when Octavio Doctel did very well and the Dodgers coveted him enough to send MacDonald to the Pirates. MacDonald did very well and figures mightily in their future plans. So, the signing of Dotel resulted in MacDonald and therein lies the plan. It's OK if it works. Most for their free agent signings have been duds, however.

10. Hey, maybe the Yankees won't get Lee after all. Wouldn't that be wonderful. Maybe, for a change, and for some dollars as well, Lee will stay in Texas, depriving the Yankees of their superstar signing for this off-season. Meanwhile, the Red Sox signed two apparent All-Stars, putting them in the driver's seat, at least while the snow flies. But pity the poor Oriole fans. Here comes another season with nary a chance. Baseball sucks, right, Oriole fans?

No matter how one sliced it, Sunday's Steeler game, Week 11, was pivotal for this season. Coming off an embarrassing loss to the New England Patriots, still suffering injuries to quite a few key players, but sporting a 6-3 record, and remembering last year when, with a 6-2 record, they hit a five-game losing streak against so-so teams, the question was, "Could they bounce back against one of the teams, the Oakland Raiders, who defeated them at home during the five-game losing spell last year?" And one must also point out that the Raiders are currently leading their division and are an improving football team, certainly superior to last year's version. So, either the Steelers beat the Raiders and keep their quest alive for a playoff spot, or chalk up the season and plan for the 2011 draft.

The Steelers won the toss and elected to take the ball. A la last week, they went three and out and punted. The Raiders sliced and diced their way down the field and settled for a field goal. Oh boy! Here we go again! But little did we know that those three points would be the last the Raiders would score. Meanwhile the Steelers racked up a commanding 21-3 lead at halftime and went on to crush the Raiders 35-3.

What made the differences? For one thing, Jason Campbell is no Tom Brady. Campbell was so ineffective that they turned the quarterbacking over to Bruce Gradkowski, a Pittsburgh native who killed them last year, in the third quarter. But it wasn't going to happen Sunday. The Raiders' defense doesn't seem to believe in the blitz, either. So, Ben had quite a bit of time to find receivers, and on several occasions, saw daylight up the middle and even made a touchdown himself when not picking up first downs. He easily found receivers, and even the rookies, Brown and Sanders made nice catches.

Throw in some decent runs by Mendenhall and Moore, and you get the point that the offense was clicking on all cylinders. The defense wasn't so bad, either. Farrior had a big day as did Harrison. Polamalu came back from what seems to be a swoon over the past few games. He was all over the place and made a key interception.

But what a game it was for penalties. The Steelers broke an old record for infractions. It seemed like they were being flagged on every play. The Raiders reminded everyone of the Raiders of old. They were clawing and fighting the whole way. Richard Seymour was thrown out of the game for slugging Ben in front of a referee. The Raiders surely missed him, but the Steelers didn't. He's a force.

-- The Jets just pulled one out, didn't they? And the Colts-Pats went down to the wire with Manning all set to score to win the game with only seconds left. The only problem is that he threw a pick that iced the game for the Pats. Is Brett Favre through or what? Is Marvin Lewis finished as the Bengals' head coach? He just can't get them going. The Bears shut out the Dolphins? The Dolphins need a quarterback. And the Browns lost to Jacksonville? That shouldn't have happened.

-- Pitt won another Big East game versus South Florida. To say it was ugly is an understatement. But the Panthers are still atop the Big East. They will face a huge challenge on Friday when they play West Virginia. The Pitt basketball team won a tournament in New York. Maybe they are pretty good after all.

-- In closing, I see where the Yankees are going to give Derek Jeter $45 million for the next three years. The fact that they can throw $45 million to a guy who has definitely seen better days shows how flush they are with dough. If that doesn't convince you, then I don't know what will that baseball sucks.

So, there I was yesterday afternoon watching the Phillies-Nationals game with my son. Jeff, and grandson, Alex. It was a picture-perfect day with nary a cloud in the sky. Otherwise, the only things in the sky were the planes flying just to the right of right field on their way to land at the Philadelphia airport. The stadium was jammed. I think it was the 80th or so sellout.

The Phillies fell behind by three runs going into the bottom of the ninth. But as good teams do, they staged a rally. They scored once, putting them two behind. And then with with no outs and two men on, Werth fouled off about five pitches. Then he lofted a line drive to left center that cleared the fence, about 400-plus feet, and he trotted around the bases with a walkoff homer.

I was watching scoreboard all afternoon, and saw that the Pirates fell behind the Diamondbacks. But they too staged a late rally and won by one run. We were also following the score of the Eagles game, and they squeaked out a win against the Lions. That leaves us with the Steelers ...

By now everybody and his brother knows that the Steelers put on a ferocious defense in Tennessee, and despite an anemic offense, were able to pull out a win. What do we now know:

1. The Steelers can't do any worse than 2-2 without Roethlisberger.

2. The Steeler defense is awesome.

3. The Steeler offense is almost non-existent.

4. The Steeler special teams ain't bad.

As I said above, I was in Phildelphia. But thanks to Jeff's Blackberry and Ben Smolar's frequent calls, we were able to keep up with the game. As we were entering the stadium, we found out that Antonio Brown had returned the opening kickoff for a touchdown. I really cannot remember the Steelers returning a kickoff since the Ron Woodson era. Woodson would start up the middle and then veer to the right, at which time the Steelers would set up a wall of blockers, and Woodson would be off to the races. But the Steelers haven't had anybody close to Woodson since he left, and in most cases they struggled to get to the 20.

As the game progressed it was obvious that Tomlin created a plan that essentially told the defense that it had to suck it up and win the game practically on its own. It meant stopping the Titans premier runner, Chris Johnson, who, up to yesterday, had a dozen straight 100-plus-yard games. He didn't get near that yesterday. Additionally, the Steelers forced seven turnovers, unheard of. Hats off to the entire squad and LeBeau's scheming. But having Polamalu and Smith back makes an enormous difference. Another guy, Timmons, was all over the field. And, because of the heat, they had to substitute liberally along the defensive line. So, you can say that everyone contributed, even the rawest of rookies.

Tomlin also knew that the offense would be one-dimensional. Despite his speeches to the contrary, he really doesn't have that much faith in Dixon and wouldn't allow him to throw much at all. The Titans realized this as well and packed the box to stop the run. The Steelers had about 127 yards of total offense yesterday. This tells you how much the defense meant.

Finally, one of the weak links of last year's team was special teams. But a new coach and some new bodies have made a huge difference.

So, while we can't wait for the big boy to get back in action so the Steelers can open up the game. In the first two games, at least, the defense and special teams have allowed them to do just enough to get a win.

Well, fans, football is in the air. It still may be stifling hot and terribly humid, but the boys, both college and pro, are in camp and preparing (and sweating) for the upcoming season. I visited Steeler camp last week and was treated to a variety of things, including the two-minute drill. It's the fifth year in which five friends and I make the trek to Latrobe and thoroughly enjoy ourselves.

With the start of the Steeler season just weeks away, here is ...

WHAT WE KNOW:
1. The Steelers fired the old special teams coach and hired a new one. This was no surprise after disastrous special teams play in 2009 in which, among other embarrassments, they led the league by allowing four touchdowns on kick returns.

2. With an obvious demise of the running game and the failure to protect the passer in 2009, they fired the old offensive line coach and hired a new one, a guy named Kugler. Kugler is a more smash-mouth in his approach. One of the goals is to run and protect better, but also to ...

3. ... improve the short-yardage running game both near the goal line and in the open field. The Steelers failed to punch the ball into the end zone too many times last year and had to settle for field goals. Beyond that, and very importantly, they failed on numerous occasions to attain a first down and keep a drive alive when, with less than five minutes left in the game and leading on the scoreboard, they couldn't pick up a yard or two on the ground. This led to turning the ball over and allowing the opposition to score winning points.

4. They brought back two former stalwarts on defense, Larry Foote and Bryant McFadden. These guys know the system and are expected to contribute immediately. They also have Polamalu and Smith back from injuries. The loss of these two really hurt the defense last year.

5. Roethlisberger will have a maximum suspension of six games. This could be reduced to four games if he turns his attitude around.

6. Santonio Holmes is gone. He was a tremendous contributor to this team on the field (off the field was another story). The Steelers brought in former 49ers receiver Arnaz Battle, got back Randle El, and drafted two speedsters, Sanders and Brown. They hope that at least one of the above can begin to fill Holmes' shoes. But that it is stretch considering how effective Homes had been over the past four or five years. Ward, the real go-to guy, is in his 13th year in the league and is obviously getting a little long in the tooth.

7. We know that the Ravenzzz have put together a veritable all-star team. They think this is their year. Many of the pundits around the country fully agree with them. Many are ceding the division to them. Another scary team is the Bengals who won every AFC North game last year. So, these are two teams that seem to be superior to the Steelers. Even the Browns have new life, and while they may not quite challenge for the division in 2010, given the competition, they are awakening from their long slumber and will be heard from, even in 2010.

WHAT WE DON'T KNOW
1. We don't know how effective the new special teams and offensive line coaches will be in achieving their assignments. Improvements in these two areas will represent a sea change over last year.

2. We don't know if Byron Leftwich or Dennis Dixon can fill in effectively during Ben's suspension. If they cannot, their season may well be over after the first four games, assuming that is the extent of the suspension.

3. We really don't know how long Ben's suspension will be. Roger Goodell stated that with "good behavior", Ben's absence could be limited to four games. But Ben, to everyone's surprise, seems to have made a 180-degree turn. He has turned into "Mr. Congeniality", smiling at the cameras and visiting hospitals, etc. When Goodell was at Steeler camp last week, he intimated that he was very impressed with Ben's new attitude. This sparked speculation that maybe Goodell would even reduce the suspension to maybe two games. But that is strictly speculation and we won't know anything for certain until about Labor Day.

4. Another unknown factor is the Tomlin effect. Many consider Tomlin to be a top notch coach. This season is arguably the most challenging of his young career. Much of the success or failure in 2010 will be laid at his doorstep.

-- JIM REICH
NFL Blog Blitz powered by SportsFanLive.com

Down here in cool Sarasota, one gets the chance to commiserate with people from other parts of the country whom one doesn't see during other parts of the year. Had dinner with an old friend from Indiana, a Colt fan, whom we see on our annual sojourns to the sunny(?) south. My friend not only bemoaned the Colts' loss in the Super Bowl, but the "throwing" of the Jets game that spoiled the perfect 16-0 regular-season record. He feels that people who pay exorbitant prices, like $229/ticket, are entitled to see their team go all out to win every game. He feels that paying customers are cheated when key players are benched, thus resulting in a "thrown" game. It causes him to be fed up with pro sports.

I must say that I disagree with the above position. I think that the one and only goal for each NFL team is to win the Super Bowl. It is the ultimate prize, and teams must do whatever they deem necessary to win it. Any side issue during a season, such as attaining a perfect regular-season record or securing an ironman record are, at best, sidelights, and, at worst, distractions to winning the Super Bowl or World Series.

Resting key players, once a playoff position has been secured, can be very beneficial to a team's success. Pro football has been described as a game of attrition. It's a Darwinian contest. The team that is healthiest for the playoffs has the best chance of emerging victorious. Teams covet winning their division as with that distinction comes the bye week. Those that get this have the opportunity to take an additional week off to rest and heal the nicks that are inevitable in pro football after 16 grueling regular-season games.

Often teams are eliminated because of injuries to key players. Without Troy Polamalu and Aaron Smith the Steelers suffered a five-game losing streak that effectively eliminated them from the playoffs last year. So, the healthier a team is going into the playoffs, the greater its chance for success. (There are exceptions to this. In 2006 the Steelers were the final team to make the playoffs. Not only did they not get a bye week, but they had to play all games on the road. They won the Super Bowl. But this is very rare.)

When Colts Coach Caldwell chose to rest important players in a game that meant nothing in the standings, he, in my opinion, rightfully was planning for a playoff run that could win the Super Bowl for the Colts. He wanted his team to be healthy and rested and rarin' to go. They were. They just hit a buzz saw in the inspired Saints.

As far as fans are concerned, they, too, should understand that the ultimate prize is the Super Bowl. They are, or should be, aware that no matter how much they pay for exhibition game tickets, the teams are not necessarily playing to win. Their goal is to discover new talent and new wrinkles that can only be tried out in regular-season game conditions. To give new players, for example, the longest possible look they must sit their regulars. This is part of a season.

Further, fans who pay for tickets for regular-season games must realize that teams may have different motives for playing certain games than winning, i.e. resting important players for future games. And, in most cases, securing a perfect regular-season record without winning the Super Bowl is not considered to be a successful season. Yes, the Dolphins had a perfect season in 1972 AND they won the Super Bowl. So, that was the ultimate record. But no team has been able to match that record since.

To a true fan, a football season is a process. Many ingredients go into this process, and winning every game is not necessarily the top priority.

There is a song in the musical, "The King and I," called "It's a Puzzlement." I think this could be the theme of the Pittsburgh Steelers' demise in 2009. For the fifth time in six losses, the Steelers made a journeyman quarterback the embodiment of Johnny Unitas. Yesterday's quarterback of the week was Bruce Gradkowski, a Pittsburgh native, whose family was out in full array at Heinz Field to cheer him on. They were not disappointed. He brought back the Raiders not once, not twice, but three times in the fourth quarter to chalk up a Raiders victory.

So, what's it all about? Here are some thoughts:

1. It's the year after the Super Bowl win. The Steelers don't have any team(s) to avenge. It seems that no matter how much the coaching staff talks the talk of "leaving the Super Bowl behind" and "focusing," it is very hard to convey that to players. Last week Tomlin said that they would come out storming in the remaining games, or words to that effect. But it didn't take a genius to see that they were sleepwalking their way through the first three quarters. It wasn't until the fourth quarter that Ben led them down the field. But ...

2. The defense kept giving up long plays. Last year LeBeau was the toast of Pittsburgh as his schemes seemed to be one or two steps ahead of almost every opponent. This year he can't get them to stop big plays, particularly in the fourth quarter. How can you be so smart in one season and so stupid the next? Could it be

3. That the absence of crucial players can be causing these breakdowns. We've already discussed Aaron Smith and Troy Polamalu. But what about Bryant McFadden, the defensive back who left to get a big contract? The Steelers said they had great confidence in William Gay taking over for McFadden. By now it should be obvious to one and all that Gay is no McFadden. A guy here, a guy there and it spells the difference between holding a lead and losing it.

4. Are they just worn out? After a Super Bowl win that takes you into February, can you recover quickly enough for the start of a new season mentally and physically to do it all over again? What's in the minds of players is simply not evident to the fan. Talking and doing are two different things. And you do have a target on your back as everybody wants to beat the Super Bowl champs. This doesn't leave much room for error ... and there have been plenty this season.

I have given up on the playoffs for this year. Even if the Steelers are mathematically still in the hunt, there are too many problems. This means that if they couldn't beat Kansas City and Oakland, what makes anyone think they can beat the Ravens, Packers and Dolphins. Hey, the Dolphins beat the Patriots yesterday!

It's the time to reassess and regroup and get ready for the 2010 draft and season.

Another painful loss this weekend was Pitt's one point defeat by Cincinnati. They, too, couldn't hold off an onslaught in the fourth quarter. Is this the theme in Pittsburgh in 2009? Anyway, Pitt will go to a bowl, the Meineke Bowl. It's not a top tier bowl by any means, but it's a bowl nevertheless and indicates true progress under Wannstadt.

Let's face it, the old adage about an NFL season being Darwinian is accurate. In many cases, those teams that can avoid serious injuries to key players have a real shot at making the playoffs. Those whose teams suffer those types of problems usually end up in the pack. An example is the Patriots last year. They lost Brady for the season and their season went south. This year it's the Steelers' turn. With Aaron Smith out for the season, Polamalu and Keomatu iffy on a week-to-week basis, it is very difficult to bring on replacements with the skill they possess. Opposing teams exploit these absences, and a season can easily be turned around.

Compounding this problem for the Steelers is Ben's concussion problem. Ben is the fulcrum of this team. With him out, the situation takes on much greater proportions. To add to this misery, the Steelers went to Baltimore last night without their No. 2 quarterback, Charlie Batch. The only guy left was Dennis Dixon, a fifth-round draft pick in 2008 who had thrown exactly one pass in a regular-season game up until last night. To make matters worse, it was thought that Ben would play last night until Thursday after practice. So, it was only on Friday morning that they realized that Dixon would be the starter. It was too late to insert a game plan for him. To give them an alternative if Dixon went down, they signed Tyler Palko late in the week. He didn't even know the signals let alone the playbook. But Tomlin dressed Ben anyway and would have let him hand off the ball if it came to that. Talk about going into a key away game crippled ...

I was really ready to mail this one in. I didn't feel that given the circumstances the Steelers had the proverbial snow ball's chance last night. I was prepared for a blowout. In fact, I would have been much less disappointed this morning had it been a blowout. But, lo and behold, the Steelers played a very credible game. Dixon was a very pleasant surprise. He seemed to be very poised and in control. His passes were somewhat errant. But I am sure that the Baltimore defensive coordinator was doing everything he could to confuse Dixon. Dixon has one dimension that has been missing from the Steeler quarterback position since Kordell Stewart was here. He can tuck it in and take off. I was disappointed that Arians didn't have him call his own number more often. I think it could have made a difference. My guess is that they didn't want the kid to get hurt given the backup situation. But the game plan was crying for more Dixon carries last night.

One positive came out of the game. The Steelers didn't give up a punt or kickoff return for a touchdown. That's a revelation. But the nagging negative is that while leading in the fourth quarter, a miracle in itself, they gave up a long drive. Of their five losses, long drives in the fourth quarter have been their undoing in four of them. This is frustrating and unacceptable. I don't know what can be done about this short of getting Polamalu healthy this season. But I am wondering whether Farrior and Harrison are losing a step.

I am also wondering, given the added and obviously deserved attention the league, Congress, etc. are giving to the long-term effect of concussions, how long Ben will continue to play NFL football. One only needs to see the cases of John Mackey and Paul Martha. Martha was a receiver with Pitt and the Steelers in the late '60s and early '70s. He went on to become a respected lawyer in Pittsburgh and was also president of the Penguins. Now, he is suffering terribly from memory problems. Was this due to concussions he suffered in football? I don't know. But it could be. I also remember that Lynn Swann was advised to retire from football after enduring multiple concussions. If Ben hangs it up relatively soon, who could blame him. But Dixon looks like a pretty suitable replacement. Wouldn't you say?

The playoff picture is becoming very clear. New Orleans, New England, Minnesota and Cincinnati look like the cream. Each has an A-No. 1 quarterback. San Diego is coming strong. To me, these are the outstanding teams that will vie for the ultimate prize. Of course, there will be surprises. There always are. But my money is on those four.

-- JIM REICH

There comes a time in an NFL season when reality begins to dawn. Today was such a day. With the Steelers facing the "hapless" Chiefs, the game looked like money in the bank. Then, despite the Chiefs taking the opening kickoff to the house, the fourth time this season that such a nightmare has occurred, the Steelers seem to have turned it around. At halftime they had possessed the ball an overwhelming period of time and were clicking on all cylinders and led 17-7.

With the second-half kickoff coming to the Steelers, one had the feeling that they would march down the field and put the game out of reach. Well, this is the NFL, and things didn't turn out that way. The Chiefs discovered the blitz. Ben did evade the blitz on several occasions, but he couldn't avoid all of them. Then, there were errant throws and the run wasn't called for nearly enough. They allowed the Chiefs to tie the score at the end of the game, and even though they got the opening kickoff in overtime, they couldn't make a third-and-two. Instead of running straight ahead, they went outside with Melwelde Moore who lost three yards and put them out of field-goal range. The Chiefs took the punt and threw a pass that got them to the Steelers' 3-yard line from where they kicked a field goal. Game over.

You can look at this game and see the Steeler season as being finished or holding just a glimmer of hope. I see real problems. One is the Ravens next Sunday in Baltimore. At their worst, the Ravens give the Steelers hard time, particularly in Baltimore. Then, there's another game with Baltimore. It's not pretty. After defeating Denver in Denver on a Monday night two weeks ago, they have lost to Cincinnati and Kansas City. Things are going the wrong way.

So, it's time to say that 2009, post-Super Bowl championship, is going down as many seasons like this do, with disappointment. That's the downside. What's the upside? The 2010 draft. It's time to reload next April. If the season goes as it is presently going, the Steelers will not be drafting as late as they have in recent years. It could give them a chance to pick up some high quality players. Don't forget, they drafted Roethlisberger at 11th overall after a lackluster season. This draft pick set up some awfully good seasons. They also got Polamalu by trading up to 16th, and when healthy, he is a joy.

One last observation: There's a cliche around the NFL that there is a thin line between winning and losing. It might be trite, but there's a lot of truth to it. In today's game, a yard here or there, a successful kickoff defense, a defensive player holding on to an interception instead of dropping it ... and there could have been a different outcome. But it didn't happen that way and this season is sliding away.

I can tell you this morning that I will never again give any credence to the so-called experts who predict the outcome of an NFL season before the season starts. Practically all pundits base their opinions on the previous season's results, and year after year, with some exceptions, they fail to see what is going on with various teams. Of course, injuries play a major part in how a season unfolds, but who figured:

1. New Orleans having a perfect season so far as guided by the passing arm of Drew Brees? Boy, did they undress the previously unbeaten Giants this past Sunday.

2. Minnesota also having a perfect season so far. And I thought that adding Favre would be a disruptive force in the land of the Vikings. I wondered what they were thinking bringing in an over-the-hill quarterback. But with Favre's arm and Peterson's running, they have been unstoppable so far.

3. Indianapolis' perfect record isn't quite as astounding given that Peyton Manning is at the helm. But the Colts had many changes, including the head coach. But there they are.

4. The Broncos? I thought their new head coach was in such disarray before the season started that I would have paid him off and brought someone else in. But Orton seems to have gotten new life in the thin air and they dominated San Diego last night IN San Diego. I saw Cowher predict that San Diego would rise up to defeat Denver last night. Hey, it didn't happen.

5. The demise of the Titans? How can a team that had something like 13 wins last year start off 0-6 this year? I know Haynesworth is gone. But could he have made that big a difference? And they have one of the best coaches in the league in Jeff Fisher.

6. The Ravens defense. Has the Ravens defense finally pooped out? The front doesn't seem too bad, but the backs are getting beat time after time. Are they missing Rex Ryan that much? And this happens to the defense when the offense is really doing a job.

7. The Jets' rise and fall? I thought the Jets were going to roll at the beginning of the season. Their defense was blitzing like crazy and Sanchez seemed to be a phenom. But things have settled down there. Rex will have to inject something into that group.

8. What's that noise out of Cincinnati? The Bengals look like the real thing.

The Steelers had a ho-hum game against one of the league's most pitiful franchises, the Browns. I thought Cleveland was on the right track when it got Savage from Baltimore to take over football operations. But it shows in sports where a guy can be a genius in one place and a dunce in another. Tom Donahoe is another example. He did great things in Pittsburgh before his run in with Bill Cowher. The Rooneys went with Cowher, and Donahoe was out. After a year or so, he caught on at Buffalo. But he couldn't work his magic there and after a few years was out of a job again.

The Steelers are emerging in 2009 as a passing offense. That's what they were last year, too, as a result of the meltdown of the running game. Ben was forced to pass last year with success. He also got to run the no-huddle offense, which he loves. This year, while the running game has shown some spark, it's the passing game that has moved them back to a tie for first place in the AFC North. Hines Ward is as good as ever, and when they double-team Holmes, the Steelers have found a new kid, Mike Wallace.

But of all things, the Steelers, yes, the Steelers have discovered the tight end! For years and years, the Steelers used their tight ends as another blocker, seldom, if ever, throwing to them. But Heath Miller is second in the league in catches by a tight end right now. It's been effective, too. So, as Bruce Arians says, we'll take what they give us.

The Browns were not a true test. But the upcoming three games are going to be pivotal for the Steelers. They have Minnesota at home this Sunday, and they go on the road after a bye week to take on the Broncos. Then they have Cincinnati at home. That's two undefeated teams in two games and one on a roll. A tall task if you ever saw one. At least Polamalu is back and the triumverate taking over for Aaron Smith are holding their own. The season could come down to these three games.