The Sports Intern

The Sports Illustrated Cover Jinx strikes again. After punishing Maria Sharapova for her swimsuit issue appearance in 2006, the mystery of the curse is still lurking around her. Rising American star Melanie Oudin handed Sharapova's the latest setback in her comeback Saturday at the U.S. Open by defeating her in the third round. Given the challenges Sharapova has faced since her serious shoulder injury, I decided to take a look at just how powerful the jinx is.

Among other intriguing facts, I discovered that Kurt Warner is afraid of black cats. While researching the jinx, I discovered that SI itself actually did a cover story about this in January 2002. The idea was for Warner to be on the cover holding a black cat (probably in two gloved hands, one holding the cat, the other stroking it Dr. Evil style). Sadly, he refused the opportunity to be on one of the funniest covers in SI’s history.

Even without Warner on the cover, Alexander Wolff did an in-depth study on the history of the curse. He and a team of three others went through every single one of SI’s 2,456 covers and studied the athlete's performance after appearing on the cover. An astounding 37.2 percent of the time, the athlete’s performance dropped off. So the cover jinx is true, right?

Wolff’s answer was maybe. Although he personally believes there is a jinx, the evidence is iffy. Michael Jordan has appeared on the cover 51 times, and, as well all know, he rarely suffered any thing remotely close to a fall off.

On the other hand, there is abundant evidence of struggles among the cover athletes. A truly sad story is that of golfer Andy Norris. After winning a tournament, he made the cover, then went cold for seven years, not winning another tournament in that span. Finally, he broke through and won another one, earning himself yet another cover, and sadly, also earning a winless streak for the rest of his career.

Theories range from mathematics to psychology. Regression toward the mean says that while some extreme measurements (like ones that might earn you the cover of SI) may be observed, often most measurements fall closer to average (like ones that would seem to indicate a fall off in performance). This makes sense, but several sports psychologists Wolff spoke with thought it might be mental. Athletes might feel pressured to live up to their cover-worthy performances and think themselves into a slump. Both theories would explain the jinx fairly well, in my opinion.

It’s more fun to chalk the SI jinx up to being one of the mysteries in sports, riding alongside the Madden Curse. While the video game version has yet to be studied, there is clearly at least some legitimacy to both.

Unfortunately, Wolff leaves one very important question unanswered. What about the swimsuit issue?

If 37.2 percent of athletes on the cover of SI fall off in performance after their cover, what happens to the beautiful models that grace the cover of the annual swimsuit issue? Do Marisa Miller or Heidi Klum put on a few pounds or trip on a walkway after they made the cover? Or perhaps an incidental farmer’s tan strikes them down? The public is dying to know.

The swimsuit issue clearly isn’t invincible. The likes of Anna Kournikova and Sharapova have both taken up SI on a chance to appear. After their shoots? Kournikova no longer plays professional tennis. Sharapova suffered a shoulder injury that cost her most of 2008, and the jinx has followed her into 2009, keeping her out of every major final this year.

So how do the real models fair? I want to send Wolff back to the drawing board, have him create measurements for modeling performance, and test for drop offs. If SI is hurting our models, I don’t want Adriana Lima on the cover. That’s a price I’m just not willing to pay. --- TSI.