10 Feet High

After transferring to Syracuse from Iowa State, small forward Wesley Johnson was expected to start right away. But Johnson has done much more than just start. He is averaging 16 points and 9 rebounds while leading the Orange to a top three national ranking and potential national title.

During his two years in Ames, Johnson averaged 12 points and 6 rebounds – decent numbers on a bad Big 12 team. Now playing for a far better team in perhaps an even better league, Johnson has excelled. The Texas native is on the short list for Player of the Year, contributing in a variety of ways and developing into one of college basketball’s most multi-faceted players.

We will explore what has made him so effective, the elements he must tweak to his game, and why ultimately, he will be a really good pro.

The small forward position in today’s NBA game is one of creativity (LeBron James), scoring (Carmelo Anthony), defense (Gerald Wallace) and shooting (Rashard Lewis). Although Johnson is a capable shooter with NBA range, he isn’t the type of shot creator you can rely on, and he doesn’t yet have the predatory scoring instincts to garner the top five selection he is projected as.

At a long 6-7, Johnson has the body to finish at the rim and create off the dribble, but at this point, he just doesn’t have the skills. While he does take advantage of his quickness mismatches at the collegiate level, he fails to show the necessary counter-move if his first move is deterred. In other words, when he decides to jab right and make a move going left that’s cut off, he doesn’t know what to do.

(Expect to see Johnson's high-flying act in NBA arenas for a long time)

Sometimes he’s able to create good separation using a step-back or even a spin move, but usually, he gets in trouble. Since he’s not a sound ball-handler yet, this is where many of his turnovers come, or when he takes a contested shot.

The other concern I have for him is a lack of overall grit. The toughness we recently examined with Kansas center Cole Aldrich is not something that Johnson shows. I don’t it’s a matter of not liking contact, but rather that he’s simply not sure what to do in traffic.

In the Syracuse sets, so much of his offense comes from the 5-15-foot range that he hardly finds himself exposed to getting hit. When you’re as athletically gifted as he is with an NBA-ready body, I find it hard to believe that he can’t play through contact. Johnson’s confidence to shoot the ball is rare for a college player with his athleticism (often times these guys are merely raw drivers), and he seems to prefer the mid-range game rather than scoring in the interior. That said, against a feisty UConn team Wednesday night, he had a monstrous dunk late in the game, proving he isn’t afraid to mix it up.

I mentioned Rashard Lewis as a small forward who can stretch the floor with his three-point range. Although a bit taller, he reminds me of Johnson in that he’s a long wing who at 22 didn’t have the body to utilize all of his athletic traits. Early on in his career, all Lewis could do was shoot the triple. He was too frail to drive and even if he wanted to, he didn’t possess the handle. Fast-forward 10 years, and you see the progression of Lewis’ offensive repertoire. He still can’t handle the ball, but he has expanded his capacity to score from just being a three-point shooter, to a three-man who loves to work on the block. This is where Johnson needs to improve.

The ball-handling is important yes, but if he can develop a comfort level from the post, his prospects as an NBA player will skyrocket. He already has the leaping ability and length to create mismatches – something that can’t be taught. What he must do at the next level is learn the necessary – albeit extremely challenging – footwork of a back-to-the-basket scorer. The little wrinkles in his game that will open up everything else – up and unders, scoring off both shoulders, and perhaps toughest of all, keeping defenders off balance, and getting them up in the air are vital to him realizing his immense potential.

Johnson doesn’t have to be a dominant post scorer, but if he consistently gets 4-6 points a game there, then his entire offensive game will open up, from threes to drives to pull-ups, everything. This would be instrumental to his success because he has already proven to show a consistent shooting stroke, at 53 percent from the field and 41 percent from three.

On the other side of the ball, I don’t have many concerns other than the fact that we’ve never really seen him play man defense. The Syracuse system under Jim Boeheim is so 2-3-match-up oriented - even more this season - that I can’t make a concerted evaluation of Johnson’s one-on-one defensive skills. That said, here’s what I can decipher thus far.

At 6-7, 195 lbs, this is a kid that moves very well. His lateral quickness is evident even in the zone, which should tell scouts that he has the tools to be a quality defender. What stands out most is that he appears versatile enough to play either the top or the bottom of the match-up, meaning he is long enough to bother shorter guards and quick enough to disrupt bigger and stronger players.



This is evident when you consider he is averaging nearly 2 blocks and 2 steals per game, great versatility from the small and power forward (he plays both in college) slots.

Another element to Johnson is his durability. Playing in the rugged Big East against a perilous schedule, Johnson has proven to hold up physically even though he is rather frail. He leads the team in minutes, at 33.6, including six games of playing the full 40 minutes.

As we know, the NBA game is about exploiting mismatches and taking advantage of poor defenders (otherwise scorers like JJ Redick and Flip Murray would play more minutes). Even recently named All-Star David Lee of the Knicks, as good as he’s been this season, gets abused defensively and has difficulty guarding on the block.

Because there are so many talented scorers at this level, coaches must harp on defense as they do, otherwise you’ll just be another high-octane offense that can’t stop anybody – think the Golden State Warriors. Why do you think the Phoenix Suns never do anything in the playoffs? They cannot get the stops late in games when they need them.

Even more pertinent than his offensive arsenal is Johnson’s ability to guard multiple positions. Whether it’s guarding 1s, 2s, or 3s, this versatility will pay dividends in regards to early playing time, and ultimately, to his success as an NBA player.

All of this considered, Wesley Johnson is a fine prospect who can immediately contribute in the NBA. At 22 years old and essentially a fifth-year junior (he went to prep school and sat out a year after transferring), now is the time to turn pro.

Upside is highly over-valued by GMs, particularly in the lottery, and realistically I’d ask how much better will Johnson get by playing another year in college? Scouts love to draft based on potential (just take a glace at my list of busts), and because he is older than most if not all of his lottery counterparts, his upside is a question mark. Assuming Johnson fuels a deep tourney run for the Orange, his stock will never be higher than after March.

Despite his older age, I still think the upside is there to become a high motor, yet very skilled and productive NBA player. While I don’t think he’s a future All-Star, Johnson has all the tools to be a top two defender, and a double-digit scorer who can both rebound and pass the ball – the perfect combination of skills from the small forward position. In other words, he won’t become a 20 and 5 guy, but he will sprinkle across the stat sheet, something like 16, 6, and 4, while providing all of the essential intangibles winning teams require in the NBA. A valuable and safe pick worth using in the top 10.