10 Feet High

The NBA Playoffs are well underway, and by now you’ve pretty much heard all of the postseason story lines of every team: Charlotte’s Stephen Jackson on “the brawl,” Dwight Howard and Orlando’s constant whining about fouls, Chicago’s Joakim Noah’s never-ending string of slurs, and the insanity of Oklahoma City’s fresh legs and infusion of talent – speaking of which, can everybody please STOP referring to Kevin Durant as the “Durantula?” That’s honestly the worst nickname in sports. It makes me physically sick.

Anyways, what often gets lost in the shuffle on the voyage to June’s finals are those teams that didn’t make the playoffs. Whether they tanked or not is another question, but that’s for another day. These teams are forced to grind it out in the lottery and hope the No.1 pick falls into their laps unexpectedly, a la Patrick Ewing to the Knicks in 1985 (conspiracy or non-conspiracy). And although their seasons may be finished, there is still a bevy of storylines for those teams. Hail to mediocrity!

Getting Warmer:

Memphis – A litany of question marks surrounds the Grizzlies this offseason. First, will head coach Lionel Hollins be back? Hollins did a marvelous job helping resurrect this team into playoff contention while maintaining chemistry within his ballclub. Personnel wise, what happens with Rudy Gay, a scoring machine coming off a banner season? He will command an influx of cash, but will GM Chris Wallace decide to shell out the dough?

Looking ahead, you have to wonder about Zach Randolph as well, whose contact expires after next season. This is not a franchise that traditionally gives big deals, but both of these guys are going to get paid in a big way, whether or not it’s in Memphis. Marc Gasol is one of the better young bigs around. His continued development will be critical to how much more the Grizz improve.

Houston – I’ve been critical of the Rockets trade of Tracy McGrady and more specifically, bringing on the massive contract of gunner Kevin Martin, but Houston will surely be competitive – if not contending – next season with the return of Yao Ming. Don’t expect too much out of GM Daryl Morey this summer. The main objective is to re-sign forward Luis Scola, who has proven to be a steady option at power forward both in the starting line-up and off the bench. Letting him walk would be a mistake.

New Orleans – With essentially zero cap room this summer, the significance of the draft becomes elevated for the Hornets, a franchise mired in bad contracts. Think about this: Predrag Stojakovic, Emeka Okafor, Morris Peterson and James Posey will combine to make nearly $39 million next season. Throw in Darius Songaila’s $4.5 mill and you have yourself a bona fide nightmare of deals. The good news for Hornet fans is they found two absolute gems last June during the draft in Darren Collison (21st overall), and Marcus Thornton (second round). Collison was so effective filling in for an injured Chris Paul this season that he sparked a point guard controversy; not that he was better than Paul, but that he was good enough (19 points and 9 assists as a starter) to supplant him in the starting line-up and allow Hornets execs to deal CP3 and extract maximum value. I don’t see this happening, but you can begin to understand the type of talent Collison is. While New Orleans should make the playoffs next season with David West and Paul at the helm, the following summer could bring about early Mardi Gras in the Bayou. Assuming they do keep their All-Star point (it’s hard to envision Paul being traded), the Hornets brass will be able to entice free-agents into signing for three key reasons; major cash of course, an all-pro point guard to seriously boost their stats, and a legitimate opportunity to contend.

New Jersey – It’s hard to believe this is a franchise just four years removed from a division title. Yes, they were one of the worst teams in NBA history, and yes they had one game where the fan base literally resembled that of a high school JV game (to be fair it was snowing), but good times are ahead in New Jersey, or should I say Brooklyn? Mikhail Prokhorov has made it clear he wants to spend money, and he’s picked an ideal time to do so. The plethora of free-agents this summer and next along with the potential drafting of John Wall or Evan Turner will almost certainly make the Nets a bolstered team in the near future. Their core base of Brook Lopez, Courtney Lee and Devin Harris is a quality young trio, and despite their atrocious season, the Nets aren’t as far away as their record and lack of attendance suggests.

Light-Years Away:

Washington – The Wizards may have had a blessing in disguise after the Gilbert Arenas debacle – a second chance to right the ship in a game where you never get second chances. Voiding his mega-deal seemed to be the move at the time, but such a move appears less and less likely now. Even so, Washington is one of just eight teams that can offer a max deal this summer, and there is something to be said for that. With Mike Miller, Javaris Crittenton and Josh Howard all likely gone, expect to see some serious fireworks in the nation’s capital in the coming months, and I’m not talking about Barack Obama. Although the Wiz struggled mightily all season, they have a great young talent in big man Andray Blatche, and two capable scorers – even if they are black holes – in Nick Young and Al Thornton.

Expect Washington to make a serious play on several top guns, including Chris Bosh, Amare Stoudemire and perhaps Dwyane Wade.

Detroit – Joe Dumars has experienced the ultimate high in sports helping orchestrate Detroit’s title in 2004, and the ultimate low as almost single-handedly destroying the Pistons with his poor judgment in both the draft and the free agent market. About the only positive to draw from last summer was drafting Swede Jonas Jerebko in the second round, certainly a nice pick but not a franchise savior to say the least. We knew the Ben Gordon and Charlie Villanueva experiments would fail (see link), but we didn’t know they’d be this bad. Had he not won a title back in 2004, Dumars inexplicably giving them a combined $90 million would surely have gotten him the ax by this point. With Tayshaun Prince and Rip Hamilton both due to earn a combined $22 million next year, Dumars finds himself locked into four non-All Stars with massive deals. Trouble looms in the Palace. Hey, at least annual cap-eaters Kwame Brown and Ben Wallace are both free-agents this summer!

Stuck in No-Man’s Land:

New York – GM Donnie Walsh has made it clear that he’s not necessarily going to go for broke this summer, despite the obvious attractions that feature the 2010 free-agent class, namely LeBron James. While the Knicks have a ton of cap room now, they also have Eddy Curry's fat deal off the books in 2011 (assuming he accepts his player option this summer). As a result, they may wait and see how low the salary cap goes this summer (common thought is anywhere between $52 and 55 million), and then get ultra aggressive in 2011. Then again, this is New York, and Knick fans have been growing increasingly inpatient with the woes of this franchise. Mike D’Antoni was supposed to invigorate this team with his helter-skelter attack, which has not yet happened. Then again, let’s not forget this was a team by season’s end starting D-League transplant Earl Barron and Bill Walker, while giving cast-offs Sergio Rodriguez and J.R. Giddens prominent bench roles. With enough money to sign two major studs like a Bosh and D-Wade, playing the waiting game seems unlikely. David Lee -- one of just three players in the NBA to average 20-10 -- is coming off an All-Star campaign, and will surely demand a ton of cash, and is probably not going to get it if he sticks around. With Chris Duhon and Al Harrington both gone, we can expect to see a ton of new faces in the orange and blue next season. But we know only one guy will make the big city happy.

Toronto – The Raptors can never seem to get over the hump. After Vince Carter was essentially forced out of town, you wondered when Toronto would get another superstar type of player again. But then came Chris Bosh, an exuberant talent who like Carter, also appears to be out the door. CB4 will command top dollar this summer, and you’d be hard-pressed to find anyone who thinks Bryan Colangelo is going to pay. His colossal mistake to sign Hedo Turkoglu seems unfixable, as nobody in their right mind is taking on a long-term contract of a declining high volume scorer. Plus, Jose Calderon and former No. 1 pick Andrea Bargnani are locked up with major deals through 2013 and 2015 respectively. Unfortunately for Raptor fans, this is a team that will continue to be mired in mediocrity for the foreseeable future; lucky to sneak into the playoffs as a low seed, but certainly not capable of winning a series.

Indiana – Just hang in one more year Pacer faithful! Big money-makers Troy Murphy (nearly $12 million in ’11), Mike Dunleavy ($10.5 mill in ’11), and Jeff Foster ($6.5 mill in ’11) will be free-agents and as we’ve documented, next summer’s free-agent class is very impressive, featuring the likes of Al Horford, Caron Butler, Aaron Brooks, and the ultimate prizes, Carmelo Anthony and Kevin Durant. With a star already in place in Danny Granger, it is unlikely Indiana will bring on a heavy hitter like Anthony, but it remains a real possibility for them to sign a quality second option to help Granger and instantly bolster this team back into playoff status. This summer however will be rather uneventful for Indiana, as GM David Morway doesn’t have much flexibility with the cap. Despite their resurgence in the second half of this season, the Pacers are at best a fringe playoff team next year, but certainly hold the keys to a potentially prominent future.

Minnesota – Ricky Rubio may have spurned them after the draft, but Minnesota did find itself another boisterously talented lead guard in Jonny Flynn. If they do wind up with the No. 1 pick, that will be three point guards in two years. With Kevin Love and Al Jefferson proving as formidable a frontline as any, the Wolves have a few very good pieces already in place, all of whom are 25 or younger. With salary chips Mark Blount and Darko Milicic expiring, GM David Kahn will have a surge of funds available to him this summer, (which may or may not be a good thing considering the mistakes he has made in the past). Corey Brewer finally came on this season, but the Wolves still seek another scoring threat on the perimeter. Wayne Ellington has been a disappointment, as has Ramon Sessions, who got a nice deal last summer but did little to warrant it this past season (although to be fair he didn’t get many opportunities either). If this organization is serious about building towards the future, acquiring a young scorer like Rudy Gay or Joe Johnson is the necessary play.

(Will Rudy Gay join the young core of Jefferson, Love, and Flynn this summer?)

Philadelphia – Donovan McNabb may have been traded, but let’s be clear this will be a rather uneventful summer personnel wise for the 76ers, unless you consider deciding whether or not to re-sign Rodney Carney a big deal. However, rumors swirling around Larry Brown returning as coach continue to make wind, and his arrival to the Liberty Bell would help. Elton Brand was a mistake, but even still this team will have an opportunity to improve itself over the next few years. Jrue Holiday and Marresse Speights are a very young and talented guard-forward duo, and Louis Williams and Thaddeus Young are nice young players with bright futures.

When offensively anemic Samuel Dalembert comes off the books next summer, Philly will be in a decent spot to sign a quality player and continue its rebuilding process. Andre Igoudala is what he is – a pretty good to very good player who you probably can win with as your second best player but definitely not as your go-to option. Brand was supposed to be just that, but we all know how that’s turned out.

Promising Future, but just that ... A Future

LAC – It’s hard to be a Clipper fan in LA. It really is. It’s not like in New York with the Mets – who’ve actually won a couple championships and had repeated success – or with the Cubs in Chicago – who are always entertaining and play in an amazing ballpark – or even like LA baseball circles where the Angels have actually had more success (e.g. a World Series title) during the past decade than the far more storied Dodgers. You see, being a Clipper fan is an entirely different bird. It’s almost like being at a high school prom and really wanting to dance with your buddy’s date but knowing you never will. You know it sucks, but you can’t do anything about it … Until now! Owner Donald Sterling is willing to pay to play, which doesn’t necessarily work – Boomdizzle anyone? -- but hey, it’s a start right? This summer means the expiration of several overpriced contracts in Clipper-Land, including Steve Blake, Rasual Butler and Drew Gooden. As a result, LA’s step-brother franchise is one of the eight teams capable of offering max money. In desperate need of another wing scorer to compliment Eric Gordon and help B-Diddy, look for the Clips to make a serious pursuit of either Dwyane Wade or Joe Johnson. If Blake Griffin can fully recover from his season-ending knee injury, the Clips certainly have some good pieces moving forward. Maybe they can dance with that prom date after all.

Sacramento – The Kings may have been putrid this year, but at least they were fun to watch. Rookie of the Year winner Tyreke Evans is a future All-Star, and the continued development of Carl Landry, Jason Thompson and Omri Casspi in the frontcourt is a welcome sign to Kings fans desperately craving their first trip to the playoffs since 2006. Let’s not forget this is an ownership group still paying the salary of retired Shareef Abdur-Rahim, as well as Kenny Thomas, who may as well retire he’s so bad. Akin to their California counterparts down south, the Kings need another wing scorer to compliment the talented Evans in the backcourt. Johnson would be a great fit, as would John Salmons to replace the traded Kevin Martin on the wing. Salmons you can get at a much bigger discount, and what type of dough the Maloofs want to spend remains to be seen. Simply put, the foundation to be successful in Cali’s capital is there for the first time in a long time.

Golden State -- The other team by the bay needs a good summer but has some nice pieces in place nonetheless. On one hand, they are one of the worst defensive teams we’ve ever seen; we can thank Don Nelson and “Nellie Ball” for that. On the other hand, they have two of the best young guards around in Monta Ellis and Stephen Curry, not to mention a potential superstar in 20-year-old jumping jack Anthony Randolph. With a little cap room this summer, look for the Warriors to bring in a high level athlete at a reasonable price who can both defend and run the break; think Ronnie Brewer. The former Jazz and Grizzlies small forward has seen his value deflate after constant struggles on the offensive end. But he could be a bargain for a team like the Warriors, with capable wing scorers (Ellis, Curry, Corey Maggette and Kelenna Azubuike) already in place. Andris Biedrins was a stat-stuffing machine two years ago when he averaged 12 points, 11 rebounds, and 1.5 blocks, but injury and Nellie’s doghouse prevented that from happening again this season. If they can get some production out of him next year along with the continued improvement of their young trio, the Warriors should be better in 2010-11 with a bright future looming.

In the day and age of early college exits and unrealized potential, Stanley Robinson is a revelation. When Robinson came to Jim Calhoun as a talented, albeit very green freshman, he was strictly an athlete. Four years later, he is a basketball player.

Robinson is the unquestioned leader of an improving UConn team that without him is nowhere near the NCAA Tournament bubble it currently sits on. Against second-ranked Syracuse recently, he showed why.

In a hellish game of the utmost importance for the Huskies, Robinson came out of the gate in a frenzy, dominating much of the first half with his aggressive takes to the basket and violent dunks. While his teammates seemed sluggish and unable to match the Cuse's intensity early on, Robinson’s strong will and intensity set the tone. Despite the tough loss, he made a case for the nation’s premier senior, and helped solidify his first-round draft status come June.

At 6-9, hovering around 220 pounds, Robinson is an excellent leaper, has a terrific first step, and is a very willing rebounder. An explosive driver who finishes above the rim, he has also developed a consistent mid-range game, seemingly comfortable out to 16 feet.

Not unlike his Big East counterpart Wesley Johnson, Robinson is a versatile player capable of defending multiple positions, offensively skilled enough to play both the three and the four. Some scouts say he’s somewhat of a tweener – which is the ultimate NBA no-no, at least in terms of draft stock. Guys that don’t really have a true position have a way of plummeting down the charts. Just ask DeJuan Blair. We’ve seen successful college players struggle as pros because of this, but then again, in today’s NBA game, there is a place for tweeners.

Players like Paul Millsap are in a perfect spot when they are on teams surrounded by scorers like Mehmet Okur, Deron Williams and Carlos Boozer because the Millsaps of the world take care of the intangibles - cleaning up the glass, hustle plays, helping maximize their abilities.

The bottom line is that there are more tweeners like this in the game today than there were 20 years ago – especially in the 6-6 to 6-9 range. Back then, you had a more traditional 3-5 line-up (think Boston Celtics with Bird, McHale and Parish). Case in point: what position does Josh Smith really play? Is he a three or a four? Is Stephen Curry really a point guard? Or is he a combo guy? There is a certain amount of juggling around versatile players today that didn't used to happen.

The aspect to consider with a player like Robinson is that the tweener status he has been deemed as can actually be a good thing. So he’s not your conventional small forward. That’s okay. He’s such a high-level athlete that he will disrupt scorers and create problems for defenses. He used four years of college to strengthen his body, so even though he’s not a bulky post defender, he is very capable to guarding guys on the block, as well as finish through contact.

Because he is an explosive athlete, Robinson is a high-ceiling, high-upside type of player. He is a senior, yes, but still just 21, there is plenty of room for growth. If he can extend his range out to the three and improve his handle, he will be a solid NBA player. Robinson reminds me a bit of Gerald Henderson, the Charlotte forward and rookie out of Duke. Although he doesn’t have quite the same feel and natural instincts, Robinson is the type of talent akin to Henderson that could have a similar impact contributing in all facets of the game.

The lack of a pure basketball feel is my largest concern with him. Against the aggressive, trap-oriented press defense of Villanova recently, Robinson was a turnover machine, hesitant to dribble and errant on his passes. It culminated midway through the second half when he literally walked with the basketball after looking extremely uncomfortable with the ball in his hands. All in all, Robinson finished the game with 7 turnovers to go along with his 10 points, 7 rebounds, 2 blocks and 2 assists.

This is the type of impact he can have, both negatively and positively. He has the talent to contribute immediately, but at what price? And is this is a kid who lacks the innate basketball feel necessary to fully develop and maximize his raw talents?

Despite his struggles, Robinson gives you more good than bad. He is a high energy kid who rebounds the ball (7.5 per game) and defend (more than 1 block per game and 1 steal).

He must work on his line-drive shot to become a more consistent outside shooter, but even so, he connects on over 36 percent of his threes. And because he attacks the rim so well, many of his field goal attempts are close to the basket, hence his staggeringly high 51 percent shooting percentage.

He is a rangy athlete with excellent length and decent enough quickness to guard smaller players. The emotional issues evident last season are apparently solved, as Calhoun has said this is one of his favorite kids he’s ever coached.

I don’t think he belongs in the lottery, but he should go in the late teens, as an immediate impact guy, who will never blossom into elite status, but will contribute at both ends of the floor and help you win ball games. If I had to give him a grade, right now it’d be a “C+,” with the potential to one day become a “B.” Robinson won’t be an All-Star, but neither will most of this draft class, so getting him in the 15-20 area could be a steal.

With the college hoops season approaching the heart of conference play, I will preview some of the elite prospects and their NBA futures. The Pac-10, for example, may be enduring one of its worst seasons in years, but it still has some very good NBA prospects worth watching.

One of them is Quincy Pondexter of Washington, who has emerged from an up-and-down underachiever to perhaps the best player in the conference. He is now a consistent scorer on the wing who can finish through contact, which is hardly what Husky fans saw during his first three years in Seattle. While he showed brief, albeit brilliant flashes of talent, Pondexter was more of an enigma than anything else. He was a guy with all the tools but not the production, a kid who needed to refine his skills.

But in watching Pondexter wax both Stanford and California last week (averaging 26 on an insane 61 percent shooting), I saw a kid who morphed into a brand new type of player, a guy who has used the four-year college system to the utmost of his advantage. He looked like a senior, like a leader, and for the first time over a two-game period, like he was by far the best player on the floor.

In scoring 21 points in the first half alone against Cal, the thing that jumped out to me the most was how calm he was with the ball. In year’s past, Pondexter was always in a race to score. But now, much more mature, he evaluates the defense, reads his defender, and then goes to work. This makes all the difference.

Pondexter is superb on the block posting up, using his 6-7 (now filled out frame) to abuse smaller defenders, and his quick feet to blow by slower ones. While he often slashes to the cup, Pondexter also makes the correct decision when help comes by pulling up, countering with the other hand, making a spin move, or dishing off to an open teammate.

Defensively, I think he may be the best wing defender on the West Coast, in that he uses his length very well both on the ball, when he harasses the opposition, as well as in the passing lanes, where many of his open-court steals lead to easy baskets. His ability to guard up to three NBA positions skyrockets his draft value. It is a rare blend of tools for a 6-7 wing laterally fluid enough to guard 2s and 3s, yet strong and athletic enough to defend 4s. It is perhaps even more relevant than his improved offensive repertoire.



(These are the types of break-outs Pondexter creates by playing the passing lanes - nothing but him and open space)


A key knock on Pondexter is his lack of a pure shooting stroke. I'd say he can hit the college three in rhythm; it’s just that he’s not a guy who can come off screens from 24 feet, which is okay. He hasn’t developed the range on his NBA three, but given his vast mid-range improvements since his freshman season, teams will see he is willing to put in the work. At this juncture, his scoring prowess (20.3 ppg) is best served from the 18-foot mark and in, where he mixes his pull-ups with dribble-drives and posting.

Even with his shooting and scoring improvements (more than 8 points per game from last year), I think his best selling point to scouts is his improved commitment to rebounding. I’d always wondered why Pondexter, always an excellent leaper, didn’t hit the glass harder. I no longer wonder this. In 17 games, this season, he has rebounded at an astounding 7.9 per game, one of the best in the Pac-10. All of this comes despite playing on the wing, and not being in traditional rebounding position. This serves him extremely well at the next level. His high energy play and non-stop motor will supplant the typical doubts teams have about one-year wonders such as Pondexter.

Given his aptitude to defend and create mismatches on the block, Pondexter has become one of the premier small forwards in June’s draft. The 21-year-old is a rising, sure-fire first round pick. If he continues his steady play and gets Washington into the tournament, I think the Fresno native will crack the lottery, (not unlike another off-the-radar wing from UW in 2006 ... Brandon Roy anyone?).

As an NBA player, there are two aspects of his game that Pondexter must improve immediately: the first is his overall handle. In the college half-court set, he’s able to jab and use one or two dribbles to get to the rim because his first step is simply that much better than the defender's recovery. This won’t always be the case in the league. An improved handle will allow him the opportunity to effectively run pick-and-rolls (a staple of the NBA offensive diet), as well as aid in certain situations when his team goes big and he's forced to assume more of a set-up role in the offense. Furthermore, in the open floor when he’s forced to handle the ball and make decisions in transition, his current skill set is not there. Right now he's a great finisher but not a great decision maker. If he adds the latter to his game as well, he will earn consistent minutes as a pro.

As I eluded to earlier, Pondexter is more of an 18-feet and in rhythm shooter. At this stage, his jumpers come from either beating his man off the bounce, or using a slight in-and-out dribble or step-back to create space and rise up. These are good traits to have at any level, but in order to fully maximize his potential, it is imperative for him to increase his range out to the NBA three either by spotting up, creating, or running off screens. In essence, doing so makes his athleticism that much more dynamic and dangerous. The more defenders respect him as a shooting threat, the more Pondexter is able to drive and make plays, something he's already apt at doing.

All in all, I believe Pondexter will become a very effective NBA starter. Between his natural gifts and tenacious nature, he possesses too many intangibles to keep out of the line-up. Potential All-Star? That’s a stretch, but if he lands in a quality organization where he can learn early on, I think he’ll have a really nice career. His best-case scenario is to go to an established, veteran team where ultimately, he doesn’t have to be a go-to guy, but rather a reliable third or fourth scorer who can guard the opposition’s best wing. Think Corey Brewer or James Posey - productive starter or first guy off the bench type of player. The kind of guy every successful team needs.

Ray Allen and all of ESPN - seriously the home page is decked out - agree with me on the All-Star voting debacle.

Sometimes the rare talents have a way of falling through the cracks. It’s easy enough to know about the McDonald’s and Parade All-Americans who commit to the Kentucky’s, Carolina’s, and Duke’s of the world. But how about that special player who goes to a smaller school and makes it big? How cool is that?

We witnessed it with Stephen Curry at Davidson and Eric Maynor at Virginia Commonwealth; both first-round draft choices last summer. Two-time NBA MVP Steve Nash – who went to Santa Clara – is another example. Certain kids just don’t get the hype during their prep days. Maybe they grow late or develop their games after high school. It doesn’t happen often, but when it does, I like to say, “I told you so.”

Keion Bell may be one of these kids. The Los Angeles native out of Pasadena High School went virtually un-recruited by the local powerhouses UCLA and USC, and accepted an offer to attend West Coast Conference cellar dweller Pepperdine, a small school that rests beautifully on the Malibu coastline.

Bell, now a sophomore with the Waves, has an unusual blend of power, speed and athletic ability from the point guard position. He is a confident player who attacks the rack with a vicious mentality, and uses his strength to absorb contact and finish around the rim. At 6-3, Bell was the leading guard rebounder in the conference last season, showing he isn’t afraid to mix it up down under with the trees.



The explosive athlete isn’t a consistent outside shooter yet but displays good technique and the ability to develop into one down the road. He must cut down his turnovers (nearly four a game), but this is not uncommon for a young player, especially one who was thrust into the starting point guard position as a true freshman. A source tells me that he is one of the hardest workers he’s ever seen, a true gym rat committed to reaching his ultimate destination – the NBA.

In his first season with the Waves, Bell averaged 13 points, five rebounds, two assists and two steals. In two games against national powerhouse Gonzaga, he totaled 37 points and 21 boards. Another encouraging sign was that Bell produced even more in the postseason, averaging 17 points in the WCC Tournament. Bell understands the game really well as a young point guard, and knows how to control a game on both ends of the floor. He is a tenacious defender who welcomes the opposition’s best guard, even if it means he has to sacrifice some of his offense – something very challenging for players at every level.

Pepperdine is in the midst of a major rebuilding phase. Despite producing 16 NBA players,and having gone to 13 NCAA tournaments, the proud program has fallen on hard times lately, consistently finishing at the bottom of the West Coast Conference. Having to compete with Gonzaga, St. Mary’s, Santa Clara, and San Diego for recruits is difficult, but in the case of Keion Bell, they may have found lightning in a bottle. It’s no stretch to say he could lead them right up the totem pole to the top of the league once again.

Keion Bell still has three years remaining, but if he continues to improve at his current rate, he without question has the natural ability to become the 17th Wave to make it to the league.

Don’t say you weren’t warned…

With the NBA Draft Lottery set for Tuesday, I thought we should take a closer look at the major issues surrounding it and propose my solution to fix a system that is obviously broken.

Every year teams with no chance of making the playoffs start tanking with 15-20 games left.

Citing injuries that are invisible to the naked eye, they pull their best players out of the line-up (see Michael Redd and the Milwaukee Bucks), and appear to do everything possible not to win. They might not exactly be fixing games, but watch a Raptors-Wizards game in April and you’ll see what I mean. Undrafted guys from the D-League are all of a sudden starting in the NBA. “Ladies and gentlemen, now your starting line-ups for your Washington Wizards, from Fresno State University, No. 5, Dominic McGuiiirrrreeee!!!” And the worst part of this behavior is that the NBA’s weighted lottery system makes these teams’ actions not only rational but also wise.

Accordingly, the answer is an un-weighted lottery with the first five picks available to all non-playoff teams.

The first obvious question is why there is a need for a lottery in the first place. In every other American professional sports league (not counting the NHL), the worst team automatically gets the No. 1 pick.

The NBA doesn’t do this due to the nature of basketball. Because a basketball team only has five players on the floor at once, the impact of one player is greater, and one superstar can single-handedly alter the fate of a franchise. By contrast, no matter how great a quarterback is, a team cannot win without a solid offensive line. Put Peyton Manning or Tom Brady on the Raiders and they aren’t even close to the caliber of players they are right now. Quarterbacks must be protected to be successful. Similarly, in baseball, Albert Pujols or Alex Rodriguez might hit you 50 home runs, but their teams still need decent pitching to win. And a great pitcher cannot carry a franchise because he only takes the mound every fifth game. Just ask Tim Lincecum or Cliff Lee about that.

But in the NBA, if you add LeBron James to any roster on the Eastern Conference, you can pencil that team into the playoffs every season. A look of the No. 1 overall picks since 2002 in each league demonstrates the greater significance of the top pick in the NBA:

NBA – Yao Ming (Houston Rockets), LeBron James (Cleveland Cavaliers), Dwight Howard (Orlando Magic), Andrew Bogut (Milwaukee Bucks), Andrea Bargnani (Toronto Raptors), Greg Oden (Portland Trail Blazers), Derrick Rose (Chicago Bulls).
NFL – David Carr (Houston Texans), Carson Palmer (Cincinnati Bengals), Eli Manning (New York Giants), Alex Smith (San Francisco 49ers), Mario Williams (Houston Texans), JaMarcus Russell (Oakland Raiders), Jake Long (Miami Dolphins).
MLB – Bryan Bullington (Pittsburgh Pirates), Delmon Young (Tampa Bay Rays), Matt Bush (San Diego Padres), Justin Upton (Arizona D-Backs), Luke Hochevar (Kansas City Royals), David Price (Tampa Rays), Timothy Beckham (Tampa Rays).

Before proposing a new scheme, it is important to look at the history of the lottery to help determine exactly what the NBA’s interests are in having it. Originally, the No. 1 pick used to be a coin flip between the last-place team in each conference. But after accusations that the Rockets tanked to get Hakeem “the Dream” Olajuwon first overall in 1984, the NBA created the draft lottery.

More controversy struck a year later when the New York Knicks won the lottery and drafted future Hall of Famer Patrick Ewing. That led to vigorous debate over whether the league rigged the lottery to send Ewing to New York. Additionally, many wondered about the fairness of the system when the league’s worst team, the Golden State Warriors, drew the seventh (and final) lottery slot.

As a result, in 1987, the NBA adjusted the process by having the lottery determine just the top three draft slots. This decreased the incentive to tank, and with the remaining non-playoff teams selecting in order of their finish, the team with the worst record was guaranteed to pick at least fourth.

In 1990, the NBA changed the format of the lottery again. This time it introduced a weighted system to give the worst team the best chance at the top pick. There were 11 non-playoff teams that season, so the team with the worst record had 11 chances and so on down the line. Starting in 1994, the chances were weighted even more in favor of the teams with the worst records. As these changes have been made, the heavy weighting has once again provided huge incentives for non-contending teams to tank in hope of the worst record.

A professional sports league’s first interest in any draft system is competitive balance. The need for it is more than just common sense, as it maintains legal relevance as well. Because a draft is by its very nature anti-competitive (think about it, a player loses all bargaining leverage by having a single team acquire his rights), such a system would be a violation of the anti-trust laws.

The courts have concluded that the unique nature of sports makes a draft pro-competitive because it promotes on-field competitive balance among the teams. Without a draft, the smaller market teams would be unable to survive. Any new draft lottery system would need to maintain this competitive balance.

However, as the NBA explicitly acknowledged following the Olajuwon incident, it’s imperative for the league to have a serious interest in maintaining the integrity of the game by eliminating the desirability of tanking. As the 2007 season demonstrated, when a true franchise player is believed to be available in the draft, the current lottery system fails to discourage teams from tanking. Why? Because the last place team still gets the most lottery balls - even though they may not get that No. 1 pick (whether they might waste it on Greg Oden is irrelevant at the time).
This past season, Gilbert Arenas suggested that it was in his team’s best interest for him to remain sidelined to allow the struggling Wizards to finish last with the hope of getting the first pick this summer.

In devising a new system, the NBA must also remember to consider the interests of its most important constituents. And who can be more important than the fans? A real fan should never have to root against his team. But let’s face it, this has become a common way of life for the followers of the NBA’s bottom feeders. After the All-Star break many fans begin to realize their team has no shot at making the playoffs, and go from losing sleep over losses to actually celebrating their team’s demise. Fans realize that the worse their team performs, the better player it will likely get in the draft. During 2007, I couldn’t bear to watch Sonic games because rooting against them made me sick.

In addition to these people, let’s not forget about the fate of fantasy basketball owners, which maintains monumental importance, at least for me. Perennially injured stars like Gilbert or Redd playing half a season ruins millions of fantasy squads every season. It’s beyond awful when your top point guard changes from “Hibachi” to Beno Udrih halfway through the season. It has gotten to the point where during a fantasy draft, I actually have to balance the risk of picking a player on a great team (who might sit out the last week of the season to rest for the playoffs), with the risk of picking a player on a lousy team, who might not play beyond February with some sort of swine-like ailment.

Don’t believe in tanking? Think I am being over-dramatic? Just take a peek at the 05-06 season. Consider a March box score from the Minnesota T-Wolves. They had Kevin Garnett, but their four other starters were Trenton Hassell, Mark Blount, Ricky Davis and Marcus Banks!

But don’t worry, Justin Reed – a former 2nd Round pick no longer in the league, came off the bench to score 14 points in 28 minutes. No, you did not misread that. Justin Reed did play 28 minutes in an NBA game. In case you’re wondering, Minnesota finished the year with the third worst record in the Western Conference and was “awarded” the sixth pick. The Wolves took All-Star Brandon Roy and traded him to Portland.

When the Oden/Durant sweepstakes took the NBA by storm during the 06-07 campaign, several teams notoriously tanked to try and get one of the top two picks. Memphis had the worst record and shut down Mike Miller. And the Bucks prematurely ended the seasons of Andrew Bogut and Charlie Villanueva, while benching Michael Redd in the fourth quarter of a game in which he had 34 points after three.

The Celtics were most guilty, though, having finished with the second worst record in the league, at 24-58, losing eight of its last ten games, and sitting out Paul Pierce and his bum elbow. During a home loss late in the season, head coach Doc Rivers left his starters on the bench for much of the second half while his reserves blew an 18- point lead to an abysmal Charlotte team which won just 28 games all season. Ironically, the C’s didn’t get either Oden or Durant, but things obviously worked out nicely for them.

The NBA must also consider the television networks’ interest. For local TV, it becomes pretty bad when Walter Herrmann is your starting three man, which was the case for Charlotte two years ago. Tanking is less of an issue for national TV because networks avoid scheduling bad teams in the first place. An exception would be this year’s Wizards, who were booked for national appearances but back-doored into tanking with the legitimate injuries of Gilbert and Brendan Haywood. However, a less obvious point is that the desire for competitive balance (in the sense of the worse team getting the best collegiate player) is not necessarily in the network’s best interest.
On the contrary, it can actually become good for national TV when a team that is close to making the playoffs improves and becomes good through the draft. For example, in the modern draft era, only two teams have really beaten the odds to get the No. 1 pick: Orlando with Penny (traded Webber) and Derrick Rose in Chicago. Do you really think the NBA is upset about that first-round series against the Celtics? Me neither. Such a series is clearly good for both the league and the game.

The last group to consider is the team owners. An owner of a small market team has a huge interest in ensuring that the worst teams have a shot at the best players because it is the only way that such a team will ever truly land a marquee talent. Lets face it, LeBron is not taking Herb Kohl’s phone call in 2010, and the same goes for Sacramento, Minnesota, Charlotte and Memphis. In truth, the only chance small market teams like the Bobcats have of landing an Amare Stoudemire type talent is by winning the lottery, which makes it the draft extremely important.

With all of the above considerations in mind, it becomes blatantly obvious that there is no perfect solution. However, the current system has failed in meeting both of the NBA’s two key concerns. As shown in the 2007 Tankapalooza and through Gilbert’s comments this season, the incentive to “cheat” is too great when a true franchise player is in the upcoming draft. Additionally, the current system has failed to offer any real measure of competitive balance. The same teams continually find themselves drafting in the top ten.

Since 2004, the Bucks, Wolves, Sonics (Thunder) and Grizzlies have all drafted in the top 10 three times. The Bulls have done so four times, and the Bobcats have done so every year. Clearly, in the case of the Bulls we see a team beginning to improve.

The Thunder have a ton of young talent but are several years away, while the Bucks, Wolves and Grizzlies are light-years away, and who knows when the Bobcats will start winning.

Thus, I am proposing a non-weighted lottery for all non-playoff teams for the first five picks in the draft. This eliminates the tanking problem because no team is going to throw a game to ensure itself the sixth pick (which is the lowest pick that the team with the worst record will end up with). And I do not foresee teams purposely avoiding the playoffs to ensure themselves a one in fourteen chance at the number one selection. Obtaining playoff experience, revenues, national exposure, etc are too great, even for a team with no real chance of getting out of the first round.

The current system is supposed to reward the worst teams by creating parity in the long run – but how are you providing that parity? By allowing bad teams to essentially throw games at the end of the season, the integrity of the game is completely lost. This fails to even mention the juiced up ticket prices.

My proposal would greatly help small market owners and their teams compete with larger franchises, improve local television ratings, and not force disgruntled fans to root against their beloved teams after the All-Star break. And of course, the lives of fantasy owners would be made much easier when deciding between what should be a no-brainer pick - Monta Ellis or Randy Foye.

Basketball purists or not, we cannot allow teams to fill rosters with D-League players in hope of getting the top pick every June. As a whole, an un-weighted lottery would help create balance in the association and redistribute the power of major market teams across the rest of the NBA. The best part about sports is having competitive balance and ensuring that all the franchises have an opportunity to compete for a championship. Let’s get back to that.