10 Feet High

Welcome back to the race for NBA Executive of the Year, Kevin Pritchard!

With all the Tracy McGrady and Amare Stoudemire talk, Portland’s GM just made an excellent move to acquire veteran do-everything center Marcus Camby from the reeling Clippers.

The best part?

Camby has an expiring deal so this won’t hamper any potential free-agent luring come summer time, and furthermore, the Blazers didn’t have to give up any marquee guys. Trading the pesky, albeit starkly average, Steve Blake immediately makes this a better team by allowing last summer’s free agent Andre Miller to assume full point guard responsibilities in lieu of splitting time.

Ridding themselves of chronic black hole Travis Outlaw was another key. Outlaw is a gifted scorer and athlete, but for a kid who came straight of high school, he never really learned how to play the game. Despite his occasional scoring outbursts, he was such a streaky player and enigmatic defender that he really didn’t fit in Nate McMillan’s system. In other words, he will mesh perfectly in dysfunctional Clipperland, playing with the offense-thwarting Al Thornton, Baron Davis and Ricky Davis.

We will get to Camby in a second, but by merely trading away Blake and Outlaw, Portland automatically improves, leaving more touches for All-Star Brandon Roy and the versatile LaMarcus Aldridge both in the paint and at the high post. This team is no longer the eighth seed out west.

Getting Camby was a downright theft. When the Blazers lost Joel Przybilla and Greg Oden to season-ending knee injuries, this team’s title hopes went down the drain. Both provided stellar rebounding and defense, and more importantly, they clogged the paint, a necessity to compete for a title.

The value of Camby is immense in that his presence is felt all over the floor. He can do what Przybilla and Oden can ... and a whole lot more as well.

Perennially one of the game’s best shot blockers (career average of more than 2.5), the two-time All-NBA Defensive Team selection may not be the hefty five-man like a Przybilla, but his superior length in the lane is responsible for several altered shots every game. When Shaq was “the real” Shaq, you’d always hear announcers comment on how guys wouldn’t drive when he was in the game. Camby is near that level.

(Even leaper extraordinaire Josh Smith isn't immune to Camby's interior presence)

His presence alone deters drivers and forces offenses into jump shots, ultimately allowing for long misses and for this athletic Portland team to get out in transition and take advantage of fast break numbers.

Because he runs the floor so well and is so dexterous for a 7-footer, he also becomes a viable scoring option on the break. He certainly doesn’t have the conventional set shot, but Camby is more than capable of knocking down 14-footers, an upgrade from both Przybilla and Oden, two traditional centers who prefer operating on the block and in the paint. And unlike Oden for example, who completely disrupts the flow of the offense with his awkward and delayed post touches, Camby doesn’t need the ball on offensive sets. He doesn’t need to score to be effective. By the end of the game, you will check the box score and see he had 8 points, 16 rebounds, 4 blocks and 3 assists.

The other value of Camby is in the pick-and-roll, which will surely to free up Miller and Roy, who will be able to attack the basket more frequently, as well as create open shots for Camby when the defense hedges too high.

Look, we all know the Western Conference runs through the Lakers. They are the champs and have looked every bit the part thus far. All-Star Pau Gasol and Andrew Bynum have been stellar this year, proving to be the ultimate twin tower escapade in the league. Portland is talented enough on the perimeter with Miller and Roy, alongside the gifted LaMarcus Aldridge and now a true center in Marcus Camby, that they can challenge LA the way we thought they would when the season began.

The NBA playoffs are all about home court, and LA’s troubles at the Rose Garden (lost nine of ten) cannot be overlooked. I’m still not sold on Dallas, Denver or San Antonio. Caron Butler should help the Mavericks, but this team is too finesse with Dirk, who as great as he is, can’t be the best player on a championship team. George Karl teams never win the big one. And the Spurs are too old, fragile, and slow.

Don’t say you weren’t warned. Watch out, Western Conference. The Portland Trail Blazers just put themselves right back in the contending hunt.

(I try not to be too mean, but it can prove quite challenging).

A lot is made about busts, so I have to ask, what exactly is one? To me, a bust is a very specific type of player, the guy that fans think is the savior of their franchise and more importantly, the player scouts dub as "can't miss prospects" - the next big thing.

The thing about football or baseball is that each team is loaded with bench players. MLB rosters have 25 guys, while NFL rosters keep 53. NBA rosters are only permitted to have 15 (12 active). In other words, the “scrubs” on an NBA team have a much less likelihood of making the league than those at the NFL or MLB level.

All of this in mind, the nature of a bust is undeniable.

Chronic under-achievers – fair or unfair – are a part of the game, just as much as pick-and-rolls and the up-and-under. Some are bigger than others, but the following list is composed of the players analysts thought as the truest gems of the future, and in turn, the guys who failed to realize their potential on the grandest stage of all. Let’s go…

Felipe Lopez – Heralded as the second coming when he landed the cover of SI and committed to St. John’s in 1995, Lopez actually had a very solid career for the Red Storm.

He was named to the All-Big East First Team as a senior, but he never realized his vast stardom, despite being the No. 24 pick in the 1998 NBA Draft. Lopez’s career as a pro was a failure, playing on three NBA teams and averaging just 5 points and 2 rebounds. Word is, he’s still playing overseas, which I commend. It’s very tough swallowing your pride like that.

Jason Williams – Not the guy involved in the shooting of his limo driver charge and not “White Chocolate,” but the All-American Dookie, who was selected second overall in the 2002 Draft, and the guy everyone thought would be the next great point guard in the NBA. The man made a bad choice and never recovered from a career-ending motorcycle accident. I remember this especially well, because I was at Duke Basketball Camp when it happened. Coach K came in to speak to the kids, and appeared about as devastated as a human being can look. It would have been special to see J-Will play in the NBA. The former Naismith, Wooden and Oscar Robertson Award winner, was recently named to the Sports Illustrated All-Decade Team in college basketball, and deservedly so. His orchestration of the 10-point-comeback with 1 minute left versus Maryland in 2001 will always live on.



Greg Oden – Injuries, injures, injuries. Although it’s still too early to call him another Sam Bowie, we’re definitely getting closer. I hate to include him on this list because Oden was actually having a very good season, averaging nearly 9 points and 11 rebounds, but let’s face it, for a guy as hyped as he was, he has been a monstrous disappointment, especially when you consider the start to the career Kevin Durant has had. Unfortunately for Oden, he seems to lack the smoothness and sheer understanding of the game the upper echelon of big men have - for example, his teammate LaMarcus Aldridge. He’s still not even 22 years old, but unless he dramatically alters his approach to the game and figures out a way to stay healthy, Oden is definitely on his way to becoming a major bust.

Emeka Okafor – The former Wooden Award winner and another member of SI’s All-Decade Team has not lived up to the billing he garnered out of UConn. Okafor was a shot-blocking machine when the Bobcats selected him second overall behind Dwight Howard in the 2004 NBA Draft.

He ran the floor, rebounded the ball, and displayed an uncanny ability to time his blocks. But since coming into the league, Okafor has failed to make an All-Star team and doesn’t appear to ever materialize into elite status.

Tyson Chandler – Staying on the topic of under-achieving centers, Chandler is certainly at the top of the list. Although he’s been to the playoffs four times and has had some decent seasons, Chandler was thought of as an absolute lock. The 7-footer has an abundance of tools and should be a dominant player, but he hasn’t ever come close. Despite having a premier point guard in Chris Paul for several years and an All-Star forward opposite his block in David West, Chandler never became a consistent go-to guy with his back to the basket. While he did highlight many of Paul’s alley-oops, he failed to put on the bulk or develop the touch necessary to translate into the type of player he should have been. His career statistics stand at 8 points, 9 rebounds and just 1.4 blocks, hardly justifiable for a No. 2 pick with his size and athletic ability.

Kwame Brown – Perhaps the ultimate bust of this decade, Brown represents the beginning of the end for Michael Jordan as an NBA executive. Heralded as a future All-Star, the big man spurned his commitment to Florida to become the No. 1 overall pick by the Washington Wizards in 2001. His career statistics include averages of 7 points and 6 rebounds, and a 58 percent FT percentage. Worse, he may be the most booed player by home fans I’ve ever witnessed. Side Note: I wonder what he’s doing these days off the court in Detroit? Wouldn’t that make for some good reality TV?

Darko Milicic - Darko should have his own category – that’s how much this dude has underachieved. The astronomical hype around him began when he was just 17, at the height of America's love-affair with another teenager, LeBron James. When Joe Dumars selected him second overall (after James) in the 2003 NBA Draft, he passed Carmelo Anthony, Chris Bosh, Dwayne Wade, Chris Kaman, David West and Josh Howard. (Wow, I swear I could be an NBA GM). Since entering the NBA, Milicic has averaged 5 points, 4 rebounds, and shot 59 percent from the line. That means that combined, him and Kwame Brown are averaging 12 and 10 for their careers. There is some solace in that right? Okay, you’re right, maybe not. In a recent interview, the outspoken Serbian swore about 30 times while complaining about his career and lack of opportunities to play. This 2007 exchange though - after an international affair between Serbia and Greece - is absolutely priceless:



We wish him well on his pending voyage back to Europe. Thanks for the memories Darko!

Darius Miles – Thought by some “experts” to literally be the second-coming of MJ, Miles has “slightly” underperformed. Now out of the league, the No. 3 pick in the 2000 draft by, of course, the Clippers, D-Miles averaged a staggering 10 points and 5 rebounds throughout his un-illustrious 9-year-career. At least he has maintained a viable career as an actor, most notably in “The Perfect Score” (2004), where he plays the role of a high school hoops star that needs to steal the SAT scores in order to qualify for college. Other than the stealing part, this is a direct parallel to his life, where he struggled mightily in his SAT bout. Miles is undoubtedly one of the worst picks of many by the Clips – a truly disturbing notion when you consider their history of clouded judgment.

Mike Bibby – This is a little tricky because Bibby has had a rather successful career, just not the type of one many people thought. One of the most decorated stars in Arizona high school history with the pedigree of Henry Bibby and Point Guard U, the former collegiate All-American reminds me a lot of Reggie Bush, an under-sized but effective player, a No. 2 pick, and a guy that will always – if unfairly - be thought of for what he didn’t do, not what he did do. Strange to think he’s never been named to the All-Star team. Even so, I felt it necessary to include him on this list.

Kenyon Martin – Another excellent college player who never became the star in the NBA many figured he’d become. Martin won every award possible during his tenure at Cincinnati, yet the top pick of the 2000 draft has failed to reach this level of success as a pro. A one-time All-Star, he has had a productive, yet unspectacular career, playing for both the New Jersey Nets and Denver Nuggets. He has however, found himself mired in several on, and off the court issues, where the volatile forward has been known to receive many fines, technicals, and flagrant fouls and infamously mock the kidney condition of Alonzo Mourning. Despite all of this, K-Mart’s real value stems from his “lips” tattoo on the left side of his neck – it’s glorious really. A true piece of art.

Eddy Curry – Forget the fact that he could never keep in shape. Weight issues are just the beginning for Mr. Curry. He is the first player I’ve seen where it actually seems like he’s doing you a favor by just showing up at the gym. Just watch him in pre-game warm-ups or in huddles during time-outs. He literally looks bored, as if to say, “I’m just hear to collect my check. I could give a shit about basketball.”

Talk about a guy who just never figured it out. The fourth pick in the 2001 draft has played in just 69 games over the past three seasons, and is averaging under 4 points and 2 rebounds each of the last two. Keep grinding Eddy…

Jonathan Bender – I just gave major props to Bender for his recent return to the NBA after being out of the league for four seasons, but let’s face it, Bender has unquestionably been a massive bust. The fifth pick in the 1999 NBA Draft out of high school, Bender was seen as a Tracy McGrady – Kevin Durant type, an athletic and long wing who could score the ball and defend multiple positions. He hasn’t been such. Bender’s best statistical season as a pro came during his 2000-01 campaign as a Pacer, where he averaged 7.4 points and 3.1 rebounds. Yikes! Did I mention I could be an NBA GM? Just saying.

Stromile Swift – He may not have been looked at as the brute force of Shaq, but this former LSU big man had all of the aptitude and flair to become an NBA star. Athletic and dexterous, Swift was taken second overall by the then Vancouver Grizzlies in 2000. His career highlights include an 8 point and 5 rebound average, a grossly failed performance in the 2001 dunk competition, and a recent victim of the vaunted NBA release, thanks to the 76ers. See, I told you this was difficult! We got some serious busts on our hands.

Steve Alford – This guy did it all at Indiana. The local hero received cult status when he was named a First-Team All-American as a senior in Bloomington while leading the Hoosiers to the 1987 National Title. The Sporting News ranks Alford as the 35th best college player of all time.

He was picked 26th (second round back then) by Dallas in the 1987 draft, and holds career averages of 4 points and 1 assist. Not quite the bust as his counterparts on this list, who were mostly top three selections, but nevertheless, worth mentioning. His coaching career hasn’t exactly been superb either.

Christian Laettner – Believe it or not, Laettner was a member of the original USA Dream Team in 1992 (as the only collegian) featuring the likes of MJ, Magic and Larry Bird, among others. Laettner is best known for his improbable game-winner against Kentucky in the 1992 regional final, but for me, he just breathes more light into the fact that Duke players are bad pros. Considering the outrageous success of the program, the list is rather freaky: William Avery, Mike Dunleavy, Jr., Jay Williams, Roshown McLeod, Chris Carrawell, Josh McRoberts, Shavlik Randolph, Shelden Williams, J.J. Redick, Daniel Ewing, Bobby Hurley, Johnny Dawkins, Trajan Langdon, Cherokee Parks and Danny Ferry. Now those are some busts! (To be fair, a lot of these guys – Redick and Langdon for example – weren’t projected to be great pros. But still, you can’t ignore the surplus of tarnished Dookies in and out of the league).

Laettner – who is still one of the most celebrated collegians ever with his abundance of awards - was chosen third overall by the Minnesota Timberwolves in the ’92 Draft, after leading Duke to four straight Final Fours, and back-to-back national titles in 1991 and ’92. He holds career averages of 13 points, 7 rebounds, and 2 assists in the NBA; very solid numbers for most, but not for the hype he garnered out of school and not for the player scouts pegged him as. He has since been the benefactor of a role playing none other than himself, in a recent Vitamin Water advertisement. (I advise to watch this with extreme caution, as it may actually make you sick, as it did to me. My proposal? Deem it as inappropriate behavior, and take it off the air forever.



Honorable Mention – Guys who the scouts declared future stars, and guys sure to have you saying, “Who? Oh yeah, I remember him”- Chris Mihm, Antonio Daniels, Shawn Respert, Marcus Fizer, Robert “Tractor” Traylor, Raef LaFrentz, Kent Benson, Ed O’Bannon, LaRue Martin, Bill Garnett, Chris Washburn, Joe Smith, Ken Durrett, Denis Hopson, Sam Bowie (he probably deserves his own essay, but I refuse to waste space on him), and Ralph Sampson (not a total bust, and I hesitate to put a four-Time All-Star on this list, but he didn’t revolutionize the game the way many people figured he would).

One note: I’ve left out Michael Olowokandi on purpose, as many scouts – obviously the Clippers not included – felt he was a project nowhere near top pick talent.

So, about that GM job . . .

Cole Aldrich is the best pure center in college basketball.

What I like best about the Kansas big man is his tenacity and passion at the defensive end. His ability to read shots as they're released and to time his jumps for blocks is unparalleled at the collegiate level. Aldrich understands driving lanes and knows precisely how to close them with his sheer size. His length above the rim causes at least five extra misses and failed lay-up attempts in addition to nearly four blocks per game.

While point guard Sherron Collins may be the heartbeat and soul of the national-title-contending Jayhawks, Aldridge is the best player.

He runs the floor with ease and is very coordinated for a young center, unlike his Big 12 counterpart Dexter Pittman, for instance. Many big guys have trouble adapting to their bodies as they fill out, but Aldridge is both strong and extremely agile. His dexterity in the half-court at both ends of the floor stands out immediately.

The NBA is all about creating mismatches and exploiting weaknesses. What will propel Aldrich to succeed is his versatility and propensity to create these problems. While he can step away and shoot the 18-footer, he is also a nasty presence down low, a guy who bodies up and angrily snatches rebounds away. Now a junior, he is on pace to average another double-double for the season, averaging close to 12 points and 10 rebounds.

This versatility was in full effect recently against conference foe Missouri, when he dominated the whole game with his 16 rebounds, 12 points, and seven blocks. Often, he’ll only take five or six shots in one game (something we’ll explore later) and still be remarkably effective. Many players - especially young ones – overvalue their scoring to the point where other facets of their game suffer if they either aren’t getting touches or simply aren’t making shots.

This is not the case for Aldrich. Perhaps even more encouraging for scouts is that he’s not turnover-prone (just 1.5 per game) despite being doubled nearly every time he touches the ball on the block. The NBA game – although much faster – will provide him with more opportunities to operate down low against single coverage because of the talent around him. When he does establish himself as a post threat that garners doubles, his court vision and unselfishness will pay dividends.

Passing big men have become a rarity, and Aldrich is one of the exceptions. A perfect example of this occurred against trap-heavy Missouri. Aldrich caught the ball in the paint and was immediately swarmed. Instead of panicking, he re-assessed the situation, turned and faced, and hit teammate Tyrell Reed on the wing who buried a triple. This pace and court vision translates very well to the next level.

(Aldridge's patience in the post will earn him the trust of his coaches, and the respect of his teammates, who will benefit playing off him)

In the NBA, young centers often struggle early on taking care of the ball. Just take Greg Oden for example. Although improved, he’s still in a hurry to score every time he gets a post touch, like he’s playing hot potato or something. Aldrich though, is calm and collected, willing to slow down first before accelerating into his move or find the open shooter. Thus, he’s not the turnover liability most rookies are, and he can actually make his teammates better.

The biggest hurdle that Aldrich has to overcome is improving his lateral quickness and overall post skills. Although a top-notch shot blocker, he will struggle guarding quick 4s and 5s in the NBA who can face up from 12 feet and attack the basket. In other words, there’s no way he can guard Nene or Amare Stoudemire given their fleet-footed nature.

You might ask why I didn't mention his strange shooting stroke. While he may not have the most fundamentally correct shooting form or an aesthetically pleasing game, Aldrich is effective. When you’re almost 7-feet and shoot 55 percent from the floor, and 72 percent from the line, the unorthodox motion isn’t a concern. Plus, he releases the ball at such a high point that he'll never get his shot blocked.

When operating on the block, Aldrich – although marketably improved – isn’t a dump-the-ball-in-and-get-you-a-bucket type of guy. He’s not the center who can score at will. Part of this is because the Kansas system is so guard-oriented that Aldridge doesn’t get a ton of post touches. Too often down the stretch of games he doesn’t demand the ball, instead deferring to clutch shot-maker Sherron Collins. Part of this is unselfishness, but at some point, it can also become plain stupid. He needs to realize that his team needs him to dominate in the key moments of games, something he has been inconsistent with throughout his career. This will come in time.

When you break him down and consider his toughness, physicality, soft hands, wide skill set and overall agility for his size, I think Aldrich has all the assets to become a really good NBA player. He’s not unlike the Lopez twins from Stanford when they came out two years ago in that they all have the mean streak and grit necessary to be a starting center in the NBA. I view Aldridge as a cross between the two – Robin with his rather raw offensive game and Brook with his resolve and ability to alter games defensively.

Assuming he bolts this June, Aldrich is probably the first center off the board and within three years, I think he becomes a third or fourth scoring option, while also developing into a premier defensive stopper, the perfect last line of defense. At his best, he probably won’t average more than 10-12 points, but what he will do is disrupt cutters, take away driving lanes, and hedge high ball screens just about as good as anyone in the league.

This isn't to say that he can't score, because he can at times. When things got heated against Kansas State this past Saturday, he had several key buckets, including a beautiful fake to the right and baby hook off the left shoulder, which shows that perhaps he is beginning to embrace his role as a go-to weapon. All together, I really like his game and all of the intangibles he brings to a team. Aldrich is the kind of kid you can stick in there for a good decade and actually have confidence in.

That’s something to be said in today’s age of subpar centers.

With the NBA Draft Lottery set for Tuesday, I thought we should take a closer look at the major issues surrounding it and propose my solution to fix a system that is obviously broken.

Every year teams with no chance of making the playoffs start tanking with 15-20 games left.

Citing injuries that are invisible to the naked eye, they pull their best players out of the line-up (see Michael Redd and the Milwaukee Bucks), and appear to do everything possible not to win. They might not exactly be fixing games, but watch a Raptors-Wizards game in April and you’ll see what I mean. Undrafted guys from the D-League are all of a sudden starting in the NBA. “Ladies and gentlemen, now your starting line-ups for your Washington Wizards, from Fresno State University, No. 5, Dominic McGuiiirrrreeee!!!” And the worst part of this behavior is that the NBA’s weighted lottery system makes these teams’ actions not only rational but also wise.

Accordingly, the answer is an un-weighted lottery with the first five picks available to all non-playoff teams.

The first obvious question is why there is a need for a lottery in the first place. In every other American professional sports league (not counting the NHL), the worst team automatically gets the No. 1 pick.

The NBA doesn’t do this due to the nature of basketball. Because a basketball team only has five players on the floor at once, the impact of one player is greater, and one superstar can single-handedly alter the fate of a franchise. By contrast, no matter how great a quarterback is, a team cannot win without a solid offensive line. Put Peyton Manning or Tom Brady on the Raiders and they aren’t even close to the caliber of players they are right now. Quarterbacks must be protected to be successful. Similarly, in baseball, Albert Pujols or Alex Rodriguez might hit you 50 home runs, but their teams still need decent pitching to win. And a great pitcher cannot carry a franchise because he only takes the mound every fifth game. Just ask Tim Lincecum or Cliff Lee about that.

But in the NBA, if you add LeBron James to any roster on the Eastern Conference, you can pencil that team into the playoffs every season. A look of the No. 1 overall picks since 2002 in each league demonstrates the greater significance of the top pick in the NBA:

NBA – Yao Ming (Houston Rockets), LeBron James (Cleveland Cavaliers), Dwight Howard (Orlando Magic), Andrew Bogut (Milwaukee Bucks), Andrea Bargnani (Toronto Raptors), Greg Oden (Portland Trail Blazers), Derrick Rose (Chicago Bulls).
NFL – David Carr (Houston Texans), Carson Palmer (Cincinnati Bengals), Eli Manning (New York Giants), Alex Smith (San Francisco 49ers), Mario Williams (Houston Texans), JaMarcus Russell (Oakland Raiders), Jake Long (Miami Dolphins).
MLB – Bryan Bullington (Pittsburgh Pirates), Delmon Young (Tampa Bay Rays), Matt Bush (San Diego Padres), Justin Upton (Arizona D-Backs), Luke Hochevar (Kansas City Royals), David Price (Tampa Rays), Timothy Beckham (Tampa Rays).

Before proposing a new scheme, it is important to look at the history of the lottery to help determine exactly what the NBA’s interests are in having it. Originally, the No. 1 pick used to be a coin flip between the last-place team in each conference. But after accusations that the Rockets tanked to get Hakeem “the Dream” Olajuwon first overall in 1984, the NBA created the draft lottery.

More controversy struck a year later when the New York Knicks won the lottery and drafted future Hall of Famer Patrick Ewing. That led to vigorous debate over whether the league rigged the lottery to send Ewing to New York. Additionally, many wondered about the fairness of the system when the league’s worst team, the Golden State Warriors, drew the seventh (and final) lottery slot.

As a result, in 1987, the NBA adjusted the process by having the lottery determine just the top three draft slots. This decreased the incentive to tank, and with the remaining non-playoff teams selecting in order of their finish, the team with the worst record was guaranteed to pick at least fourth.

In 1990, the NBA changed the format of the lottery again. This time it introduced a weighted system to give the worst team the best chance at the top pick. There were 11 non-playoff teams that season, so the team with the worst record had 11 chances and so on down the line. Starting in 1994, the chances were weighted even more in favor of the teams with the worst records. As these changes have been made, the heavy weighting has once again provided huge incentives for non-contending teams to tank in hope of the worst record.

A professional sports league’s first interest in any draft system is competitive balance. The need for it is more than just common sense, as it maintains legal relevance as well. Because a draft is by its very nature anti-competitive (think about it, a player loses all bargaining leverage by having a single team acquire his rights), such a system would be a violation of the anti-trust laws.

The courts have concluded that the unique nature of sports makes a draft pro-competitive because it promotes on-field competitive balance among the teams. Without a draft, the smaller market teams would be unable to survive. Any new draft lottery system would need to maintain this competitive balance.

However, as the NBA explicitly acknowledged following the Olajuwon incident, it’s imperative for the league to have a serious interest in maintaining the integrity of the game by eliminating the desirability of tanking. As the 2007 season demonstrated, when a true franchise player is believed to be available in the draft, the current lottery system fails to discourage teams from tanking. Why? Because the last place team still gets the most lottery balls - even though they may not get that No. 1 pick (whether they might waste it on Greg Oden is irrelevant at the time).
This past season, Gilbert Arenas suggested that it was in his team’s best interest for him to remain sidelined to allow the struggling Wizards to finish last with the hope of getting the first pick this summer.

In devising a new system, the NBA must also remember to consider the interests of its most important constituents. And who can be more important than the fans? A real fan should never have to root against his team. But let’s face it, this has become a common way of life for the followers of the NBA’s bottom feeders. After the All-Star break many fans begin to realize their team has no shot at making the playoffs, and go from losing sleep over losses to actually celebrating their team’s demise. Fans realize that the worse their team performs, the better player it will likely get in the draft. During 2007, I couldn’t bear to watch Sonic games because rooting against them made me sick.

In addition to these people, let’s not forget about the fate of fantasy basketball owners, which maintains monumental importance, at least for me. Perennially injured stars like Gilbert or Redd playing half a season ruins millions of fantasy squads every season. It’s beyond awful when your top point guard changes from “Hibachi” to Beno Udrih halfway through the season. It has gotten to the point where during a fantasy draft, I actually have to balance the risk of picking a player on a great team (who might sit out the last week of the season to rest for the playoffs), with the risk of picking a player on a lousy team, who might not play beyond February with some sort of swine-like ailment.

Don’t believe in tanking? Think I am being over-dramatic? Just take a peek at the 05-06 season. Consider a March box score from the Minnesota T-Wolves. They had Kevin Garnett, but their four other starters were Trenton Hassell, Mark Blount, Ricky Davis and Marcus Banks!

But don’t worry, Justin Reed – a former 2nd Round pick no longer in the league, came off the bench to score 14 points in 28 minutes. No, you did not misread that. Justin Reed did play 28 minutes in an NBA game. In case you’re wondering, Minnesota finished the year with the third worst record in the Western Conference and was “awarded” the sixth pick. The Wolves took All-Star Brandon Roy and traded him to Portland.

When the Oden/Durant sweepstakes took the NBA by storm during the 06-07 campaign, several teams notoriously tanked to try and get one of the top two picks. Memphis had the worst record and shut down Mike Miller. And the Bucks prematurely ended the seasons of Andrew Bogut and Charlie Villanueva, while benching Michael Redd in the fourth quarter of a game in which he had 34 points after three.

The Celtics were most guilty, though, having finished with the second worst record in the league, at 24-58, losing eight of its last ten games, and sitting out Paul Pierce and his bum elbow. During a home loss late in the season, head coach Doc Rivers left his starters on the bench for much of the second half while his reserves blew an 18- point lead to an abysmal Charlotte team which won just 28 games all season. Ironically, the C’s didn’t get either Oden or Durant, but things obviously worked out nicely for them.

The NBA must also consider the television networks’ interest. For local TV, it becomes pretty bad when Walter Herrmann is your starting three man, which was the case for Charlotte two years ago. Tanking is less of an issue for national TV because networks avoid scheduling bad teams in the first place. An exception would be this year’s Wizards, who were booked for national appearances but back-doored into tanking with the legitimate injuries of Gilbert and Brendan Haywood. However, a less obvious point is that the desire for competitive balance (in the sense of the worse team getting the best collegiate player) is not necessarily in the network’s best interest.
On the contrary, it can actually become good for national TV when a team that is close to making the playoffs improves and becomes good through the draft. For example, in the modern draft era, only two teams have really beaten the odds to get the No. 1 pick: Orlando with Penny (traded Webber) and Derrick Rose in Chicago. Do you really think the NBA is upset about that first-round series against the Celtics? Me neither. Such a series is clearly good for both the league and the game.

The last group to consider is the team owners. An owner of a small market team has a huge interest in ensuring that the worst teams have a shot at the best players because it is the only way that such a team will ever truly land a marquee talent. Lets face it, LeBron is not taking Herb Kohl’s phone call in 2010, and the same goes for Sacramento, Minnesota, Charlotte and Memphis. In truth, the only chance small market teams like the Bobcats have of landing an Amare Stoudemire type talent is by winning the lottery, which makes it the draft extremely important.

With all of the above considerations in mind, it becomes blatantly obvious that there is no perfect solution. However, the current system has failed in meeting both of the NBA’s two key concerns. As shown in the 2007 Tankapalooza and through Gilbert’s comments this season, the incentive to “cheat” is too great when a true franchise player is in the upcoming draft. Additionally, the current system has failed to offer any real measure of competitive balance. The same teams continually find themselves drafting in the top ten.

Since 2004, the Bucks, Wolves, Sonics (Thunder) and Grizzlies have all drafted in the top 10 three times. The Bulls have done so four times, and the Bobcats have done so every year. Clearly, in the case of the Bulls we see a team beginning to improve.

The Thunder have a ton of young talent but are several years away, while the Bucks, Wolves and Grizzlies are light-years away, and who knows when the Bobcats will start winning.

Thus, I am proposing a non-weighted lottery for all non-playoff teams for the first five picks in the draft. This eliminates the tanking problem because no team is going to throw a game to ensure itself the sixth pick (which is the lowest pick that the team with the worst record will end up with). And I do not foresee teams purposely avoiding the playoffs to ensure themselves a one in fourteen chance at the number one selection. Obtaining playoff experience, revenues, national exposure, etc are too great, even for a team with no real chance of getting out of the first round.

The current system is supposed to reward the worst teams by creating parity in the long run – but how are you providing that parity? By allowing bad teams to essentially throw games at the end of the season, the integrity of the game is completely lost. This fails to even mention the juiced up ticket prices.

My proposal would greatly help small market owners and their teams compete with larger franchises, improve local television ratings, and not force disgruntled fans to root against their beloved teams after the All-Star break. And of course, the lives of fantasy owners would be made much easier when deciding between what should be a no-brainer pick - Monta Ellis or Randy Foye.

Basketball purists or not, we cannot allow teams to fill rosters with D-League players in hope of getting the top pick every June. As a whole, an un-weighted lottery would help create balance in the association and redistribute the power of major market teams across the rest of the NBA. The best part about sports is having competitive balance and ensuring that all the franchises have an opportunity to compete for a championship. Let’s get back to that.