Just A Bit Outside

Sabermetrics are sharpening their swords, preparing for battle against the "uninformed" journalists. Those journalists are brushing up on their nerd insults in return. And all the while, regular fans have to deal with the constant bickering between both sides that often doesn't get anywhere.

Yep, it's MLB awards season all right. It's the time of year where my opinion is righteous and true and your opinion (if you disagree with me) is worthless and invalid.

If you disagree with my award picks, though, I don't think you're an idiot. There's room for debate in most of my picks, so if you disagree, speak up.

American League Cy Young: Zack Greinke, Kansas City Royals

So Greinke only has 16 wins. So what? Greinke was unequivocally the best pitcher in baseball this year, striking out 242 batters in 229.1 innings with a 2.16 ERA. His K/BB ratio was an outstanding 4.75. And his FIP—which measures a pitcher's true success by removing defense from the equation—was a MLB-best 2.33, one point better than Tim Lincecum. Had Greinke pitched on a team with better offense and defense (the Royals had baseball's second-worst team UZR), his season would have gone down as one of the best ever.

Apologies to: Justin Verlander, Felix Hernandez, Roy Halladay National League Cy Young: Tim Lincecum, San Francisco Giants

Like Greinke, Lincecum didn't have a whole lot of wins. But like Greinke, he pitched on a team that had little offense, so wins shouldn't be a deal-breaker for his Cy Young candidacy. Lincecum's 261 strikeouts were the best in the National League and second-best in baseball to Justin Verlander and his 10.42 K/9 was the best in baseball. Despite a dip in velocity, Lincecum put together what was perhaps a more dominant season than 2008--a year in which he won the NL Cy Young. I see no reason why he shouldn't win it again this year.

Apologies to: Chris Carpenter, Adam Wainwright, Javier Vazquez

American League MVP: Joe Mauer, Minnesota Twins

This was actually a lot closer than I expected between Mauer and Derek Jeter, but there's no chance the Twins are playing in game No. 163 without Mauer. The 26-year-old catcher finally developed a power stroke this year, belting out 28 home runs all while maintaining a pristine .364 batting average and .442 OBP. His OPS going into game 163 sits at a career-high 1.027, too. And he did this all while handling the demanding duties of being a catcher very well, as usual. Just think of how much better Mauer's stats would have been had he not missed the first month or so of the season.

Apologies to: Jeter, Ben Zobrist (yes, Ben Zobrist), Verlander

National League MVP: Albert Pujols, St. Louis Cardinals

There's not a whole lot of debate here. Pujols nearly won the "real" triple crown, leading the NL in on-base percentage and home runs while finishing six RBI behind Prince Fielder and Ryan Howard. And he was an above-average defender at first base to boot. There's not a whole lot of debate over this award--Pujols easily deserves it, as he's rated at 8.5 wins—0.9 more than the second-highest-rated player.

Apologies to: Prince Fielder, Hanley Ramirez, Chase Utley

American League rookie of the year: Elvis Andrus, Texas Rangers

There's something to be said for defense, and Andrus rated as the second-best defensive shortstop in baseball in 2009 (Jack Wilson rated as the best). His offensive numbers may not have been very impressive, but he did swipe 33 bases--nothing to sneeze at. There's no telling where the Rangers would have been without Andrus' defense, as good defense was one of the main reasons why the Rangers had success in 2009. And I know this isn't the "most valuable rookie" award and Andrew Bailey deserves to win this too, but in the end, I'm going to stick to my guns and value Andrus' defense very highly.

Apologies to: Bailey, Gordon Beckham, Rick Porcello, Jeff Niemann, Nolan Reimold, Brett Anderson

National League rookie of the year: Andrew McCutcheon, Pittsburgh Pirates

This was my toughest pick to make. I waffled for a long time between McCutcheon, J.A Happ, Chris Coghlan, Casey McGehee, and Randy Wells before going with the Pirates outfielder. In 493 plate appearances in his rookie campaign, McCutcheon posted a .286/.365/.471 line, good for a .836 OPS. He hit 12 home runs, 26 doubles, and stole 22 bases all while playing about league-average defense in center. And really, that league-average defense was the deal-breaker for McCutcheon over Coghlan and McGehee. Happ and Wells both had excellent seasons and I strongly, strongly, strongly considered Happ...but in the end, my gut told me McCutcheon.

Apologies to: Happ, Coghlan, McGehee, Wells, Dexter Fowler, Tommy Hanson

American League manager of the year: Mike Scioscia, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

The Angels could have folded after the tragic death of Nick Adenhart and nobody would have blamed them. They could have folded when their starting rotation was decimated by a slew of injuries and, again, nobody would have blamed them. And yet, the Angels perceived through all of that to hold off the upstart Rangers and win the AL West once again. Major credit is due to Scioscia for keeping his team together through all the rough times the Angels experienced this year.

Apologies to: Ron Gardenhire, Joe Girardi, Ron Washington

National League manager of the year: Jim Tracy, Colorado Rockies

The Rockies were dead in the water when Tracy took over May 29. Colorado was in last place in the NL West at 18-28, 14 games behind the Dodgers. All the Rockies did since then is go 74-42 to storm to winning the NL Wild Card for the second time in three years. I don't know how Tracy did it, but he energized a team that looked on pace to finish 2009 in disappointing fashion.

Apologies to: Tony La Russa, Fredi Gonzalez, Joe Torre

The Gold Glove awards are often a joke—players usually win on name recognition (or offensive ability) more than actual defensive ability. That's partly because there isn't a widely-accepted defensive statistic to measure fielding ability.

However, there is a stat out there that is extremely useful for evaluating defense. Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR) takes into account a player's range and errors and converts those into run values. So, for example, a player with a 6.0 UZR prevents six runs from scoring with his defense, while a player with a -6.0 UZR allows runs to score because of his defense.

That's just a basic definition of UZR, but it's pretty wide accepted in the sabermetric community and by a number of MLB teams, from what I understand. So, that being said, here's a look at what my Gold Glove ballot would look like:

1B, AL: Kendry Morales, Los Angeles. His current 3.2 UZR is best among first baseman who have played all year in the American League (Casey Kotchman has a 6.5 UZR but has split time between Atlanta and Boston this year).

1B, NL: Adrian Gonzalez, San Diego. His 4.4 UZR is over a run and a half higher than second-place Ryan Howard, who has a 2.8 UZR.

2B, AL: Dustin Pedroia, Boston. His 12.6 UZR still could be overtaken by Placido Polanco (11.5 UZR) before the year is out, but Pedroia's defense is a huge part in what makes him such a valuable player.

2B, NL: Chase Utley, Philadelphia. Utley's 10.6 UZR narrowly edges Felipe Lopez' 10.1.

3B, AL: Evan Longoria, Tampa Bay. Longoria is fast becoming one of baseball's best players, and his 16.4 UZR is a huge reason why. Side note: Chone Figgins and Adrian Beltre rank second and third among AL third basemen in UZR, and both should be rewarded handsomely in the free agent market for it (Figgins will, but Beltre could be a huge bargain).

3B, NL: Ryan Zimmerman, Washington. Zimmerman's 17.9 UZR is by far the best of any third baseman in baseball. He often gets overlooked because of where he plays, but Zimmerman really is one of baseball's better players.

SS, AL: Elvis Andrus, Texas. My pick for AL Rookie of the Year has a 8.2 UZR, tops among full-season AL shortstops. (Like Kotchman, Jack Wilson gets the shaft because he's played in both leagues this year).

SS, NL: Rafael Furcal, Los Angeles. His 8.2 UZR has been a big part in the Dodgers' success this year. Another side note: JJ Hardy, who was demoted by Milwaukee for poor offense earlier in the year, has baseball's fourth-best UZR among shortstops at 7.6

OF, AL: Franklin Gutierrez, Seattle; Ryan Sweeney, Oakland; David DeJesus, Kansas City. Gutierrez has maybe been baseball's most underrated player this year, as his sparkling defense in center for Seattle was a huge part of the Mariners' pitching staff having some sort of success this year. Don't believe me? Ask Jarrod Washburn. Gutierrez' has a 24.7 UZR while Sweeney is at 20.5 and DeJesus 18.3.

OF, NL: Nyjer Morgan, Pittsburgh/Washington; Randy Winn, San Francisco; Mike Cameron, Milwaukee. Nyjer Morgan has been one of baseball's most valuable players this year, and his 27.6 UZR is just as important as his offensive production. Seeing the aging Winn here surprised me, but his 15.6 UZR doesn't lie. Cameron has always been a defensive stalwart, and his 11.3 rating this year is par for the course.

C, AL: Joe Mauer, Twins. There's no UZR rating for catchers, so this is the most subjective I can get here.

C, NL: Yadier Molina, Cardinals. Again, I feel like I'm pulling a cop out by picking a well-known player here, but this just demonstrates the problem most voters have without a stat to gauge defense.

It's hard to imagine why the Washington Nationals deliberated over whether to keep interim general manager Mike Rizzo or hire a new GM before last week. While Rizzo hasn't magically turned the Nationals into a winner in the few months in which he's cleaned up for Jim Bowden's messes, he's begun to do a few things right that could help the Nats win some games down the road. And hey, at this point, losing might be okay for the Nationals — at least for the rest of the year.

If Washington finishes the 2009 season with baseball's worst record — and barring a massive losing streak by, say, the Royals, they will — the Nats will get the first overall pick in 2010 draft. What does that mean? That they'll be able to draft Bryce Harper, who's being hyped as one of the best high school prospects to come along in, well, a long time.

So if that works out, the Nationals will have drafted Harper and the best college prospect in a long time (that guy named Stephen Strasburg) in the span of about a year. While Harper isn't the kind of MLB-ready talent that Strasburg is, there's a good chance he could have an impact quicker than most players drafted right out of high school.

And, who knows? Maybe by the time Harper makes his debut (with the Nationals, assuming they don't move out of MLB's basement this year), the Nats will have a respectable team ready to contend.

They already have a decent core to start with. Don't believe me? According to FanGraphs' Wins Above Replacement stat, the Nationals have two of the top 10 most valuable players in baseball on their team in Ryan Zimmerman (6th with a 5.8 WAR) and Nyjer Morgan (10th with a 4.9 WAR). Throw in Josh Willingham's 3.0 WAR and you have a pretty formidable trio of players who could anchor the Nats' lineup through at least 2012 (when Willingham is due to hit free agency).

For the record, the Morgan-for-Lastings Milledge swap was an absolute steal. Milledge has been worth a combined -0.4 wins between the Nationals and Pirates, meaning he's actually cost his teams about half a win with his play. That's not good. That's really not good.

While Morgan will be 30 next year, he's flourished in a starting role this year, displaying a knack for getting on base with excellent defense. This is just an amateur opinion, but I've seen him play in person and was blown away with his play on both offense and defense. He's everything any team could want in a centerfielder — he gets on base, he's fast and he's a heck of a defender. That's why I'm calling the Milledge-for-Morgan trade the fleecing of the 2009 trade season.

Pitching-wise, Washington does have some good, young arms not named Stephen Strasburg. While 23-year-olds Jordan Zimmermann and Ross Detwiler have taken their lumps this year, both rate nicely with FIP (long story short: a stat that measures how good a pitcher is regardless of the fielding behind him) which is reason to hope that they can improve in their second or third full seasons of major league ball.

Conversely, John Lannan isn't rated highly by FIP, but despite that, he's had success in his first two years in the majors. Some pitchers find ways to have success despite a somewhat high FIP (see: Buehrle, Mark), and given that Lannan has kept the ball on the ground at a 52.8 percent clip in his career, it's not out of the question for him to continue his success down the road.

And then, of course, you have Strasburg. If he makes a major impact in, say, 2011, the Nationals could find themselves with a very competitive starting rotation.

Once thing is for sure: the Nationals are no longer a dead-in-the-water franchise. They may play like it this year, but three or four years from now, there's a good chance this team has a roster that's ready to compete for a NL East crown.