A Degenerate Gambler's Take On Pats Vs. Bills

  • Saturday, September 25, 2010 1:39 PM
  • Written By: Mike Stiriti

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Some weeks on Blog Blitz I will be playing the role of football analyst, sometimes I'll be a comedian, and other times it will be the fantasy guru. But this week I will putting on the hat that probably fits me the best: Expert Degenerate Gambler, which is why this column is running here instead of there. "Expert" doesn't mean that I win a lot of money gambling (far from it), it just means that I am an expert when it comes to gambling degenerately. This week I will tackle the Pats-Bills game and give you my hints for getting the most out of your offshore online gambling account.

First let's look at the spread. As of noon on Friday, bodog.com had the Pats listed as 14.5 point favorites. I would LOVE it at -13.5, as I loved the Packers to crush the Bills with a -13.5 spread last week. Sadly, this Patriots team is not nearly as ruthless as the 2010 Packers and a shell of themselves from 2007, when they would have won this game 77-0. Until the Pats show that they can do ANYTHING in the 2nd half, there is no reason to believe that they will be able to cover more than 2 touchdowns. My guess is that it's 21-3 at halftime and finishes up at 27-13. I'm taking the Bills +14.5.

Now for the over/under, currently sitting at 42.5. Now, I just predicted the final game score to total 40, so it seems like an easy under, but degenerate gamblers never bet on what makes sense ... not right away anyway. We need to toil with it. Can I see the Pats coming out and scoring 35? I guess, but the Bills held a decent Miami team to 13 offensive points and didn't even give up 35 in Green Bay last week. Can I see the Bills scoring points against the Pats defense that we witnessed during the 2nd half of last week's loss to the Jets? Absolutely. The Little Giants could probably put up 21 against our secondary, even if Icebox decided to stick to cheerleading. So as you see, I've talked myself into a conundrum. Is the Pats offense so good and defense so bad that 42.5 will get crushed? Or is the Bills offense so bad and our 2nd strategy so ill-conceived that the game is sloppy and actually does finish at 27-13 or lower? I'm going to take option B and hope that the Bills' benching of Trent Edwards in favor of Ryan "Obligatory Smart Joke Because He Attended Harvard" Fitzpatrick won't do much to improve the league's worst passing attack. Under 42.5.

Finally, this is the part where I usually get a little crazy. I like to scour the prop bets to see if anything looks like easy money. Brady is 5/1 to record the most passing yards in the 1:00 games, but I'm expecting a shootout in Houston so I'll leave that one alone. The over/under on Fitzpatrick's passing yards is 165.5, but I refuse to put money on anything that Darius Butler is so directly involved in. That leaves the bet on which receiver will compile the most yards during the 1:00 games. I would love to go with Moss at 11/2 or Welker at 15/2 but I just can't do it, mostly because I don't think it will be a close game. Give me the Carolina version of Steve Smith at 15/1, he's due for a big game and the Bengals secondary didn't impress me in Week 1.

So there you have it, a quick detour into an addicted mind. If I don't post a links column by Tuesday on Blog Blitz, it means that I had to sell my laptop. The game is the game.

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The Parish Awards: Part II and Beyond

  • Thursday, December 31, 2009 6:28 PM
  • Written By: Mike Stiriti

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While the 00s were a very successful decade for Boston sports, they were not without some heartbreak and disappointment. Our next category is Most Devastating Loss.

And the nominees are...

Game 7 of the 2003 ALCS: Red Sox @ Yankees

2007 AFC Championship Game: Patriots @ Colts

Super Bowl XLII: Patriots vs. Giants

Game 3 of the 2009 ALDS: Angels @ Red Sox

Well this isn't nearly as much fun to write about. The next couple paragraphs are going to be like a therapy session but without anybody to hug me and tell me that it isn't my fault.

I threw the Angels game on there for 3 reasons, even though I know it doesn't have the magnitude of an ALCS or Super Bowl: 1) We blew a lead in a game that was over. 2) We crumbled with Jonathan Papelbon on the mound. 3) I was there.

The reason this game can't win a Parish is because we were down 2-0 and it was just a Division series. Even if we won a few in a row to take the series there is no way we were getting past the Yankees. It just wasn't happening last season. What stung was the way we lost the type of game that we had been winning consistently for years, and we that it all went down with our best guy on the mound. There had been subtle cracks in Papelbon's perfection since 2008 when he began to blow a save here and there, but it all came crashing down on that October afternoon. He is still a great pitcher but his aura of dominance (and perhaps his tenure in Boston) took a significant (if not irreversible) blow.

AND, to top it all off, I had been in a wedding the night before and woke up at 7:00 AM to drive from Long Island to Boston in order to make it to Yawkey Way in time to properly pregame. AND, to top it all off AGAIN, the Patriots lost to Denver later that day which led to Josh McDaniels fist-pumping to the crowd with more aggression than Ronnie and J-Woww on a Saturday night at Karma. Black Sunday indeed.

But, like I said, this is an easy first elimination. The next game I'm going to knock out of the running is the 2007 ('06 season) AFC title game in Indy. When you blow a 21-3 lead to Peyton Manning in a playoff the only world for it is devastating. I don't think I have ever been as angry after a loss as I was that night. It didn't help that I watched it in Tampa with a couple fake-tanned douche bags who bet on the Colts, but that's a tangent for another day. Still, despite the obvious lack of devastation, the Colts were a great team and the Lombardi trophy wasn't on the line so it doesn't make the cut.

Down to the finals. Let me first say that you can make a great case for either of these games because they were about as devastating as they come. Some call it "The Grady Little Game" while others call it "The Aaron Boone Game," but whatever your chosen nickname this was as tough a loss to take as any in professional sports. The series had been epic, complete with plenty of drama and no team winning back-to-back games. We knocked out Clemens in the 4th inning and took a 5-2 lead into the 8th. Pedro had been lights-out with the exception of a pair of Jason Giambi solo shots, but was obviously tiring. It was time to hand the ball to Alan Embree, Mike Timlin or Scott Williamson, who had been dominant in the playoffs. Everybody knew it. The fans knew it. Pedro knew it. Somehow Grady Little didn't.

I have never been as emotional after a loss as I was that night. I'd be lying if I said that there weren't a few tears (fine, more than a few). And they weren't like Marley and Me tears either, they were Skylar-when-Will-says-he-doesn't-love-her tears. It was bad.

But then 2004 happened. As bad as this loss was, 2004 erased almost all of the pain and 2003 became one of the seasons that we talked about when people asked why everyone in Boston was so excited about winning a World Series. The devastation only lasted a year, which is why it isn't winning a Parish.

tyree The Pats entered the Super Bowl against the Giants carrying an 18-0 record and a -12.5 point spread. They were the team with the MVP at the helm of an unstoppable offense and a genius calling the shots. They were supposed to win. Only problem is, nobody told the Giants. Brady was pressured for the first time all year and the wheels began to come off the wagon. The crazy thing is, despite how poorly the Pats played they were still in the game. Scratch that, they still should have won the game. It took one of the most inexplicable plays by Eli Manning to turn 19-0 to 18-1. ELI FREAKING MANNING!!! That would be like the Tattaglia family killing Luca Brasi, Sonny, Michael, Clemenza and Tessio only to be taken down by Fredo. The "Tyree Play" or whatever you want to call it is still the most absurd thing I have ever seen in sports, and I saw Mick Foley and the actor from Gridiron Gang win the tag team belts with the help of a sock hand puppet.

Never before has a loss brought a fan base down as many notches as that game. We went from the cockiest group of people on the planet to salty, angry and depressed within about 45 seconds. This game wins the Parish Award because we didn't get a championship the next season to ease the pain, instead we got a torn ACL, and the team has yet to fully recover from either.

So we've had some great games and some not so great games, but how about the players? I think it's time to give out a Parish for Boston's Athlete of the Decade.

The nominees were decided based on tenure, team success, individual success and memorable moments. They are Tom Brady, David Ortiz, Paul Pierce, and Manny Ramirez.

I'm going to start picking up the pace a bit as the producers have told me that we're already running 15 minutes over.

While I feel that the Patriots have had some truly great defensive players over the last 10 years I can't bring myself to nominate any of them. I won't say that they're simply "products of a system", but when you have the greatest defensive mind in the history of football telling you where to stand and what to do it makes your life easier. If Monet meticulously instructed me brush stroke for brush stroke I would probably come up with a decent painting but that doesn't make me a decent artist. Still, I will give Tedy Bruschi, Richard Seymour, and the Lawyer Milloy/Rodney Harrison combination a more-than-honorable mention, but they just don't get any hardware.

The only reason Pedro Martinez isn't on this list is because he only played half the decade in Boston, and the same goes for Kevin Garnett and probably Randy Moss as well. And I apologize for leaving off all the great Bruins of the 00s...I just didn't know who they were.

But we're getting off topic and I promised to pick up the pace, so back to the nominees. I was going to give it to Manny because he is the most feared right-handed hitter in team history and because without him Yankees fans would still be chanting "1918!" Then I remembered that he was a selfish jackass who probably caused permanent health issues for Terry Francona, and character is always a factor when determining a Parish.

David Ortiz leads the other nominees in memorable moments, as his bevy of walk-off homers were as exciting as anything in sports, but he most likely did it dirty. Do I care? No, I don't. Would I put HGH in his mango salsa if it meant we wont another World Series in 2010? Yes, I would. But that's just my opinon. I'm a blogger. We have no morals. You should know that. Still, with what slight morality I have left I am not taking an award away from TB or the Truth and giving it to a guy who used a needle to put the Big in Big Papi.

Paul Pierce has started 748 games in Boston uniform this decade, more than any other athlete. That includes anyone in a Red Sox uniform, and they play twice as many games in a season. He currently sits 3rd behind a couple guys named Havlicek and Bird on the Celtic's all-time scoring list and was the MVP of their first NBA finals since the '80s. In any other city this would make him the player of the decade, but #34 happens to play in the same town as #12, which means he is just the first runner-up.

SUPER BOWL 3-time Super Bowl champion. 2-time Super Bowl MVP. League MVP. Most touchdown passes in a season. And that's just what he has done on the field. He is just as successful off of it, impregnating every super model he shares an elevator with. People always try to compare him with Peyton Manning, but the comparison's end at their position. If you really want to compare Brady with a rival athlete it should be with a guy in the Bronx named Jeter.

The theme of this decade in Boston was new found success, and nobody embodies that better than Tom Brady.

OK folks, 2010 is putting the cocktail weenies in the oven and the champagne on ice so we need to wrap this up quickly. I'll be shifting to rapid fire mode to close this out.

Play of the Decade: Dave Roberts Steals 2nd.

Vinatieri hit some monster field goals and David Ortiz hit some clutch homers. Paul Pierce hit some great game-winners and Johnny Damon's Game 7 grand slam in the Bronx was epic. But nothing in my mind tops Roberts' steal. Everything that happened in the '04 ALCS prior to that was awful and everything that happened after was legen- wait for it...

Wait for it...

DARY.

Coach of the Decade: Bill Belichick.

I love Terry Francona like a 2nd father. I could listen to his press conferences for hours upon hours. He manages players egos as well as any coach in professional sports and handles the Boston media better than anyone ever has. But Bill has 1 more ring and a lot less talent, so the mad genius takes it home. I called him to congratulate but apparently he's busy doing what he needs to do to prepare for Houston.

Well it looks like it's time for me to go get ready to get my mingle on. Thanks for reading and I hope to write a lot more for SFL next decade. Here are a few more Parish Awards for you to read while pregaming. Happy New Year!

Haircut of the Decade:

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Dance of the Decade: (tie) The Secondary Dance (Ty Law, Lawyer Milloy, Chris Canty) and the Rolling Dice Intro (Paul Pierce and Eddie House).

Doctor of the Decade: Whoever gave Big Papi HGH.

Acquisition of the Decade:

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Blog of the Decade: the original "Sports Fan Paradise" blog.

The Parish Awards

  • Wednesday, December 23, 2009 4:58 PM
  • Written By: Mike Stiriti

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When SportsFanLive's editor asked me to do a decade retrospective on Boston sports I was shocked. Not that he asked me to do it, but that the decade was already over.

It's not that the last 10 years have been uneventful, just that they went by faster than Usain Bolt on steroids Usain Bolt. The 00s were by far my most productive decade ever, but seeing that I could barely read when the '90s began that isn't saying much. A lot happens to a guy from age 15 to 25, and I will always look back at the goose eggs with a certain fondness, because of how I grew and how my favorite teams developed with me.

Still, it seems like just yesterday that the Sox were coming off another disappointing playoff loss to the Yankees, extending the World Series drought to 91 years, the Patriots fell to 7-8 after an overtime loss to the Buffalo Bills in which Adam Vinatieri missed a pair of potential game-winning field goals, and Antoine Walker was shooting 25 percent from beyond the arc and leading the Celtics in scoring.

Oh, how times have changed.

To commemorate the last 3,645 days in Boston sports I have decided to hand out some awards. Naturally, I named them after Robert Parish, the greatest 00 of all time.

First up, Game of the Decade.

The nominees are...

2002 AFC Divisional Playoff Game: Oakland Raiders @ New England Patriots

Super Bowl XXXVI: New England Patriots vs. St. Louis Rams

Game 7 of the 2004 ALCS: Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees

Game 4 of the 2008 NBA Finals: Boston Celtics @ LA Lakers

Narrowing the nominees from 20+ to four was very difficult. The list leaves off two Super Bowls, all the great Red Sox playoff games in 2007, the 2004 World Series and the rest of the epic games of the 2004 ALCS. This job isn't easy, but somebody has to do it.

I'm eliminating the Celtics because I believe they would have won the series with or without that comeback. They were clearly the better team and destined to win the title. I am also knocking off the ALCS, because while it completed the amazing comeback it is impossible to say that it stood out more than any of the other amazing games. The comebacks in Games 4 and 5 were epic, and of course the Bloody Sock Game 6. Plus, if they had gone on to get swept by St. Louis it would have just been an upbeat chapter in Dan Shaughnessy's Curse of the Bambino 2: The Steroid Years.

So that leaves the Patriots. While the Super Bowl victory over the Rams was an epic upset and the first championship for the city since the mid-'80s, it would never have been possible if it weren't for the Tuck Rule Game. This was not only the most exciting game of the decade, but it was the most important. It was the first time in recent memory that a Boston team had been on the receiving end of a lucky break in a huge situation. As soon as the refs ruled that Brady's arm was moving forward everything changed. Adam Vinatieri went from a solid kicker to the most clutch kicker in the history of football, Tom Brady went from a back-up and former sixth-round pick to a Super Bowl MVP, and Bill Belichick went from a coach with a .470 career winning percentage to a certified genius.

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If that call goes the other way, the Patriots lose that game and never face the Rams. Maybe Brady would never have gained the confidence necessary to become an MVP quarterback. Maybe Belichick doesn't attract veteran free agents and can't command the same type of respect that he did after he won the big one. Maybe they never win a title, let alone three. And maybe without the positive momentum from that ice-breaking championship the Sox never break the curse and David Ortiz never calls Kevin Garnett and tells him that Boston is the best city to play in.

Maybe, just maybe, that was the most important game a city has ever won, which is why I think it deserves a Parish Award.



Read more of Mike Stiriti at the original "Sports Fan Paradise" blog.

I Hate Fantasy Football

  • Thursday, November 12, 2009 8:27 PM
  • Written By: Mike Stiriti

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You want to know my true fantasy? A world in which I don't care whether or not Brian Westbrook's ankle injury will prevent him from starting. A world in which it doesn't matter to me which receiver Tom Brady chooses to throw a touchdown pass to. A world in which leaving DeSean Jackson on the bench as he racks up 136 yards and 2 touchdowns wouldn't completely ruin my week.

I fantasize about a world without fantasy football.

Sounds crazy, doesn't it? Especially coming from such a sports-obsessed blogger who enters every fantasy league he can get his hands on. The resume speaks for itself. I have been doing fantasy baseball since 7th grade, when my buddy Klinky added up the scores by hand. I am in 2nd place in my fantasy Real World/Road Rules Challenge league thanks to a huge performance by Sarah in The Ruins last night and don't get me started on my 2008 ESPN.com golf fantasy team 2 Girls 1 Couples.

But yet, at the end of the day, fantasy football makes me miserable. And it's not because I lose all the time, because I know that's what you're thinking. While I have had a very disappointing run in my current keeper league with my best friends from home, I still manage to stay competitive and finish in the middle of the pack, and I completely dominated a league with my college buddies last year. (I still don't know how you guys let me draft Westbrook, Chris Johnson, Matt Forte, Larry Fitzgerald, Andre Johnson AND Steve (CAR) Smith, but you still owe me the prize money. No, I didn't forget. Quit ducking me).

After winning that championship was when it hit me: This shit just isn't worth it. Week to week I stress over what lineup I'm going to start on Sunday. I spend hours upon hours at work on our Yahoo! league homepage, scour the free agent wire like a cure for cancer is about to pop up, and negotiate trades like I'm freeing hostages from North Korea. And for what? For the minor tinge of joy that I feel when I win? After a victory my emotions rank at about a 2 or 3 on the happiness scale. After a loss it's about a 40 on the depression scale.

Is there any other area of life where the positive result of an event is so disproportionate to the negative? The only thing I can think of is when a plane lands safely. As my plane pulls up to a stop at the gate I quickly reflect on the fact that I didn't die, but I don't dwell on it for more than 3 seconds. If it were to crash, well, it would be a much bigger deal, like when my opponent's kicker drills 3 field goals on Monday night to beat me by 1 point.

Now that I have finally come to terms with how miserable fantasy football makes me, does that mean I'll stop? Probably not. When you're hooked you're hooked, and I'm hooked bad. Is there a 12-step program for quitting fantasy sports? Today I finally began to accept my problem, tomorrow I will come to believe that a power greater than myself can restore me to sanity.

But first I need to finalize a trade for Kurt Warner.

Read more of Mike Stiriti at the original "Sports Fan Paradise" blog.