A Game of Inches and Balls: Assessing Risk

  • Tuesday, November 17, 2009 4:23 PM
  • Written By: Andy Wasif

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"The hoodie." Coach Bill Belichick. What can I say that hasn't already been said? Well, I can say that he's still a genius. People have been glossing over that fact with reckless disregard.

The media loves to prop someone up and then bash him down before you can say "Milli Vanilli." Well, I'm not going to do that. I'm going to stand by the coach, objectively and impartially (and certainly not because he has a copy of one of my books on the shelf in his office).

What is risk? Is it spitting orange juice at Kimbo Slice? Is it roller-blading down Broadway through midtown during rush hour? Is it mixing your mom's lemon meringue cookies recipe with your four-alarm chili ingredients?

One looks at these and thinks risk, whereas others look at these and think opportunity! (Actually, these might be bad examples because there's no risk inherent there. It almost certainly will turn out 100 percent bad. Though, the possibility of creating a new four-alarm lemon meringue tart may simply be too enticing to pass up.)

The "experts," who have as much expertise as a blogger does ... er, um ... that is to say, an "expert" blogger ... do not really constitute the "best of the best." If they did, they'd be coaching.

Did Bill Belichick make a bad decision? Absolutely not. He drew up a play that was designed to gain two yards and not an inch less. Watch the replay. The execution of such a play would have worked.

It's easy to make a knee-jerk reaction without any knowledge or insight on the play. It's the nature of the media to give immediate feedback, before all the facts come in. Or before they are given a chance to ruminate on the unique situation for which their brains are unaccustomed.

I mean, asking the experts -- one of whom, when asked what his main key to victory for the Patriots, answered, "The Patriots are going to have to protect Tom Brady." Really? I figured that's just what the Colts would expect. Perhaps they should throw a curve and just lay down when the Colts rush. Thanks, expert! -- isn't exactly going to get you clear insight.

They've been dumbed down by athletes regurgitating the same phrases like, "We've gotta give 110 percent." (Impossible.) "God was on our side today." (He wanted the other team to fail miserably.) And

"we're in for a battle today. They're a great team." (You're playing the Browns. No, they're not.)

So as further review would have revealed, Belichick's role in the decision -- displaying the balls to go for it -- worked perfectly. He's a master of the "growing a pair" play.

Watching the play over and over, you'll see that the Colts sent a rusher unchecked to Brady's blind side. (Speaking of which, how many other sports movies have been released while the subject is still playing? "The Blind Side" could be a winner, but if Michael Ober of the Ravens really sucks it up, it may not have as much oomph.) That left single coverage on three of his receivers on the left side, including the ever-deadly Wes Welker cutting across the middle. He had a step and, if the pigskin was thrown his way, could have possibly had a free path to the "house."

But Brady chose to throw it to Faulk. Now Faulk caught the ball. So Belichick calls for a pass to be caught. Check. And he calls for it to gain two yards. Where did Faulk catch it? Two yards deep. Check.

But Faulk bobbled it. Did he recover his bobble in time? No one will ever be able to tell.

Spotting the football is one of the toughest things to do in football. (It's up there with reviving Terrell Owens' career.) And there's nothing definitive to say that the final award of possession to the Colts was accurate. It's inconclusive, at best.

Most say that accuracy doesn't matter once the officials make the decision. But still, where does Bill Belichick deserve the blame in that scenario we've just reenacted?

Let's say he decided to punt. If Peyton Manning marches down the field again after having just done that a few minutes earlier, there is no blame, only credit to one of the greatest commercial pitchmen of all-time. (Oh, yeah, and signal-caller.)

Or let's say Brady decides to throw it to Welker. Or Faulk lunges forward. Or the officials spot it differently. Or Michael Vick chooses macrame instead of dogfighting. Then Belichick continues to be "the genius." And given the percentages for victory, he actually played a 79 percent chance compared to a 70 percent chance by going for it.

There have been so many times he's made the curious decision and it's worked out, including one Monday Night game against Denver when he called for a ball to be snapped out of the end zone on a punt for a safety, even though they were already losing at the time. It worked and the legend grew.

It worked, of course, because the Patriots defense held up and Brady was able to march his team down the field.

Other coaches set themselves up to fail with ridiculous decisions such as when Tom Cable sends his team onto the field for a game. There's less of a chance of success there than Belichick had decided to leave his offense on the field, especially if Cable continues to use JaMarcus Russell at quarterback. Yet no one questions the Raiders head coach.

When it's time for Coach Belichick to hang up his playbook, with three Super Bowl rings as head coach and two others as an assistant, there's one thing that Canton should ready a case for -- Bill's balls.

On second thought, just send the hoodie.





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