2010 NFL Rookies Mid-Season Progress Report

  • Wednesday, November 10, 2010 11:15 AM
  • Written By: WhatIfSports

Share:

At the halfway point of the 2010 NFL season, so many questions are left unanswered. Which team is the standout in the AFC and NFC? Will the NFC West winner finish over .500? Can Brett Favre's ankle hold up? Will Randy Moss (finally) stay put in Tennessee? And, of course, How 'Bout Them Cowboys?

Back in April, we took a look at who we felt would be the best rookies this season. We comprised a list of the Top 50 Impact Rookies. We are now following up by narrowing the list to 25 to see who has made the biggest impact to this point.

Top 25 Impact NFL Rookies for 2010


25. Nate Allen - S - Eagles
  • 34 combined tackles (3 assists), 1 sack, 9 pass deflections, 3 INT

24. Bryan Bulaga - OL - Packers
  • Recently held Jared Allen and Demarcus Ware without a sack

23. Russell Okung - OL - Seahawks
  • The 6th pick in the draft has helped keep Hasselbeck upright

22. Tony Moeaki - TE - Chiefs
  • 30 catches, 344 yards, 2 TD

21. Trent Williams - OL - Redskins
  • The 4th overall pick has been a big part in rebuilding Washington's offensive line

20. Daryl Washington - LB - Cardinals
  • 46 combined tackles (9 assists), 1 sack

19. Perrish Cox - CB - Broncos
  • 25 total tackles, 11 pass deflections, 1 INT, 1 forced fumble

18. Devin McCourty - CB - Patriots
  • 37 combined tackles, 4 assists, 9 pass deflections, 2 INT

17. Maurkice Pouncey - C - Steelers
  • The best center prospect from the draft has not disappointed for the Steelers

16. Tyson Alualu - DT - Jaguars
  • 23 combined tackles (6 assists), 2.5 sacks

15. Rolando McClain - LB - Raiders
  • 42 combined tackles (16 assists), 0.5 sacks

14. Taylor Mays - S - 49ers
  • 32 combined tackles (4 assists), forced fumble

13. Kareem Jackson - CB - Texans
  • 44 combined tackles (12 assists), 9 pass deflections, 2 INT

12. Christopher Ivory - RB - Saints
  • 78 carries, 382 yards

11. Koa Misi - LB - Dolphins
  • 21 combined tackles (7 assists), 3.5 sacks, 2 fumbles recovered, fumble recovery TD

10. Ryan Matthews - RB - Chargers
  • 87 carries, 382 yards, 2 TD

9. Aaron Hernandez - TE - Patriots
  • 34 catches, 436 yards, 2 TD

8. TJ Ward - S - Browns
  • 67 combined tackles (15 assists)

7. Earl Thomas - S - Seahawks
  • 39 combined tackles, 7 assists, 9 pass deflections, 4 INT

6. Eric Berry - S - Cheifs
  • 45 combined tackles (11 assists), 2 sacks, 6 pass deflections, 2 INT, forced fumble


5. Dez Bryant - Wide Receiver - Cowboys

--->38 catches, 435 yards, 4 TD, 2 punt return TDS

Bryant was supposed to contributor on a Super Bowl contender. Now he is one of the very few brights spots on a 1-7 Cowboys team. Bryant has collected 435 receiving yards and four touchdowns and two punt return TDs. His potential to be a star in the NFL has been on display throughout the first half of the season. Bryant's first season resume indicates he may be more of a possession receiver than relied on for his speed. Moving forward, Dallas has at least one offensive piece to build around. The caveat to all this is all four of Bryant's TDs have come from Jon Kitna. Tony Romo is missing out on valuable bonding time with his future No. 1 wideout.


4. Jahvid Best - Running Back - Lions

--->107 carries, 345 yards, 4 TD, 41 catches, 356 yards, TD

Before the season, people laughed at the joke that there would be a shirt that read "Lions" on the front and "Best" on the back. The Lions traded back into the end of the first round to select the California Bears running back, who has, so far, exceeded expectations. Best has racked up 701 total yards and 5 TD between running and receiving. He has brought some much needed balance to the Lions offense by taking some pressure off of Calvin Johnson.



3. Mike Williams - Wide Receiver - Bucs

--->36 catches, 559 yards, 5 TD

Mike Williams did not make our pre-season list for a couple reasons. In 2008, Williams was suspended from Syracuse for academic reasons. He came back in 2009 and racked up impressive numbers, but quit the Orange after seven games. All the concern about character and question marks surrounding Williams have been temporarily swept under the rug. Williams leads all rookies with 559 yards and 5 TD. He has built up a nice rapport with Bucs first rounder from 2009, Josh Freeman. The Bucs also have two other rookies who have contributed nicely on offense - Arrelious Benn and LeGarrette Blount.


2. Ndamukong Suh - Defensive Tackle - Lions


--->30 combined tackles (5 assists), 6.5 sacks, 2 pass deflections, INT, Fumble Recovery TD

We initially projected Sam Bradford and Ndamukong Suh to have the biggest impact among NFL rookies in 2010. It might have seemed like an easy choice, considering they were the top two picks in the draft. Well flash forward halfway through the season, and these two men have truly impacted their teams, to the point that the Rams and Lions are competitive. Neither team should have any regrets on their major investments to this point.

Ndamukong Suh has proved worthy of the number two pick. Head Coach Jim Schwartz, who specializes in defense, has revamped Detroit's defense starting with the line. Suh has 25 solo tackles, 6.5 sacks, two passes deflected, an interception, and a fumble recovery for a touchdown. Suh's 6.5 sacks are two more than any other defensive tackle in the league. He is 4th overall in the NFL in sacks.


1. Sam Bradford - Quarterback - Rams

--->171-292, 1,674 yards, 11 TD, 8 INT

The Rams are 4-4 and actually tied for first place in the NFC West. Bradford has started every game for the Rams and has thrown for 1,674 yards, 11 TDs and 8 INTs. The $50-million man has exceeded expectations and under head coach Steve Spagnuolo the Rams are overachieving . Although he lost his top two receivers in Donnie Avery and Mark Clayton early on, Bradford has managed to spread the wealth to guys like Danny Amendola and Danario Alexander. You can cash that $50-million check now Sam.

The Rookies We Missed On

In hindsight, there are some players who were ranked a little too high from our initial Top 50 Impact Rookies.

1. We initially listed Demaryius Thomas third and Gerald McCoy fifth.

Thomas was the 22nd overall pick and the first wide receiver selected in the draft. Thomas has caught 16 passes for 215 yards and 2 TDs. A foot injury suffered at Georgia Tech has affected his rookie season growth on the field. Denver has also seen the emergence of Brandon Lloyd, who leads the NFL in receiving yards. We did not take into consideration breakout seasons from Lloyd and Jabar Gaffney.

Tampa Bay has had a breakout season this year, but McCoy has contributed little. McCoy has 12 total tackles and 0 sacks. The Bucs expected major things out of McCoy and so did we. Raheem Morris is a defensive guy and the Bucs have a lot invest in "The Next Warren Sapp" so we fully expect McCoy to have a big impact at some point down the road.

2. Thinking C.J. Spiller would be awesome.

C.J. Spiller was expected to do a little bit of everything for the Bills, from returning kicks running, and receiving. But Spiller, who was drafted 9th overall, has been a big disappointment. He has 81 yards receiving and 150 yards rushing and only two TDs - one receiving and one kick return.

3. We projected Kyle Wilson as the 11th best rookie and second best cornerback.

Wilson's confidence was shaken early in the year and with Revis Island and Antonio Cromartie, the Jets do not have an urgency to rush Wilson on the field if he cannot cover anyone. The Boise State product has struggled to get on the field after a rough couple of weeks where he could not contain anybody.

2010 NFL Rookie Fun Facts

  • Mike Williams is ranked third after not being mentioned in the original top 50.
  • Christopher Ivory appears at 12. He is the only undrafted rookie on our list.
  • The top 25 includes 15 first rounders, 5 second rounders, 1 third, 2 fourth, 1 fifth, and the previously mentioned 1 undrafted.
  • Of our initial 50 - 5 have been placed on season-ending injured reserved (Jared Odrick, Sergio Kindle, Monterio Hardesty, Derrick Morgan, Brian Price).
  • Seahawks, Lions, Cheifs, Patriots each have 2 rookies on this list.
  • College Conference Representation: 7 Big 12, 5 SEC, 4 PAC-10, 3 Big East, 2 Big Ten, 2 Mountain West, 1 WAC, 1 Divion II
  • College Team Representation: 2 Oklahoma State, 2 Oklahoma, 2 Iowa, 2 Florida, 2 Alabama
  • In 2010, four rookies quarterbacks have started (Sam Bradford, Jimmy Clausen, Colt McCoy, and Max Hall). Tim Tebow has seen action and has two rushing TDs.
  • Top 25 Postion Breakdown: 5 safeties, 2 wide receivers, 2 tight ends, 3 running backs, 1 quarterback, 4 offensive linemen, 3 linebackers, 2 defensive tackles, 3 corner backs
  • Tim Toone, aka Mr. Irrelevant (the 255th pick in the draft), is on injured reserved for the Lions. Toone played college football at Weber State.

A Youth Movement In Major League Baseball

  • Wednesday, October 13, 2010 12:21 PM
  • Written By: WhatIfSports

Share:

Months before Stephen Strasburg's name (and elbow) was mentioned in the same sentence as Tommy John, the hype surrounding him and the anticipation of his arrival into Major League Baseball rivaled fans consumption of Fernandomania in the 1980s.

Strasburg set the bar so high for the 2010 rookie class that most casual fans missed out on a handful of first-year talent making their mark prior to K-Burg's grand entrance in June.

In the National League, you had the amazing start for Cincinnati Reds' pitcher Mike Leake, Atlanta's Jason Heyward made the All-Star team and Buster Posey helped lead the Giants to the playoffs. In the American League, Detroit's Austin Jackson made possibly the catch of the year and the Rangers' Neftali Feliz was lights out in the closer's role.

Thanks to Whatifsports.com's MLB Dream Teams feature we were able to create a 2010 All-Rookies team, based on the statistical output and notoriety of the players, to face a collection of Rookies of the Year. We drafted ROY award winners over the past 15 years to construct a full roster.

2010 Rookies Roster
Player Position Stats
1 Austin Jackson CF .293 avg, 103 R, 10 3B, 27 SB
2 Jason Heyward RF .272 avg, .393 OBP, 18 HR, 72 RBI
3 Buster Posey C .305 avg, .505 SLG 18 HR, 67 RBI
4 Gaby Sanchez 1B .273 avg, 19 HR, 85 RBI, 37 2B
5 Pedro Alvarez 3B .256 avg, 16 HR, 64 RBI, 119 K
6 Brennan Boesch LF .256 avg, 14 HR, 67 RBI
7 Neil Walker 2B .296 avg, 12 HR, 66 RBI
8 Ian Desmond SS .269 avg, 10 HR, 65 RBI, 17 SB
Starting Pitcher Position Stats
9 Stephen Strasburg SP 5-3, 2.91 ERA, 92 K
Bench
1B Ike Davis, 3B Danny Valencia, OF Mike Stanton, SS Alcides Escobar, OF Tyler Colvin
Pitchers
Wade Davis, Jaime Garcia, Daniel Hudson, Jonny Venters, Hisinori Takahashi, Neftali Feliz, Madison Bumgarner, Mike Leake, John Axford, Drew Storen, Alfredo Simon


Past Rookies of the Year Roster
Player Position Stats
1 Ichiro Suzuki LF .350 avg, 56 SB, 127 R
2 Carlos Beltran CF .293 avg, 22 HR, 108 RBI
3 Ryan Howard 1B .288 avg, 26 HR, 63 RBI
4 Albert Pujols RF .329 avg, 37 HR, 130 RBI
5 Ryan Braun 3B .324 avg, 34 HR, 97 RBI
6 Geovanny Soto C .285 avg, 23 HR, 86 RBI
7 Hanley Ramirez SS .292 avg, 51 SB, 119 R
8 Dustin Pedroia 2B .317 avg, 39 2B, 86 R
Starting Pitcher Position Stats
9 Hideo Nomo SP 13-6, 2.54 ERA, 236 K
Bench
LF Jason Bay, SS Angel Berroa, LF Chris Coghlan, SS Rafael Furcal, LF Ben Grieve, 3B Evan Longoria
Pitchers
Kerry Wood, Dontrelle Willis, Justin Verlander, Jason Jennings, Andrew Bailey, Scott Williamson, Gregg Olson, Huston Street, Todd Worrell, Kazuhiro Sasaki
Austin Jackson Brennan Boesch

Using our MLB simulation engine, we welcome the spirit of the playoffs and created a Best-of-Seven series to determine which team would win: the 2010 All-Rookies or past Rookies of the Year.


Game 1: Rookie Game
TeamsRHEWIS Interactive
2010 All-Rookies171Boxscore
Rookies of the Year6100Simulate Game
WP: Hideo Nomo; LP: Stephen Strasburg
Player of the Game: Hideo Nomo - 8 IP, 6 H, 1 ER, 15 K

Stephen Strasburg had no issues with the Pittsburgh Pirates in his major league debut. He quickly learned in Game 1, this series wasn't going to be a walk in the park.

The kid with a rocket for an arm only lasted 2 2/3 innings giving up three runs before they pulled the plug on him. Hanley Ramirez hit a 2-run bomb in the second inning to push the Rookies of the Year up early. Baltimore's Alfredo Simon would inherit one of Strasburg's runners and allowed him to score to put the Rookies in a 3-0 hole.

Strasburg had a 1.35 K/IP in 2010, the highest in majors for rookie pitchers. Hideo Nomo was not impressed. The former Dodger ROY handcuffed the All-Rookies, going 8 innings, allowing 1 run on 6 hits and struck out 15.

Ichiro and Dustin Pedroia each had an RBI in the 4th inning and an Albert Pujols RBI single in the 7th added insurance the ROY's would not need.

The All-Rookies lone run came in the 7th inning off the bat of Neil Walker, who hit 12 dingers for the Piartes in 2010, a solo shot on this night.

Game 2: Rookie Game
TeamsRHEWIS Interactive
2010 All-Rookies370Boxscore
Rookies of the Year5110Simulate Game
WP: Andrew Bailey; LP: Wade Davis; SV: Kazuhro Sasaki
Player of the Game: Hanley Ramirez - 3-4, HR, 2 RBI

Flat Hanley

Hanley Ramirez Ramirez drove in two runs for the ROYs

It didn't take long for the scoreboard to light up in Game 2 as current teammates squared off in the first.

Detroit's Brennan Boesch cracked a 2-out, 2-run single to give the All-Rookies an early lead against current Tiger Justin Verlander.

Verlander lasted only 5 innings.

The ROY's would cut the deficit in half in the bottom of the first when Albert Pujols followed up Ryan Howard's triple with a double, driving in the Phillies' franchise player.

With the ROY's trailing 3-1 in the 3rd, Howard would lead the offensive charge again. A solo dinger in the inning would cut the All-Rookies lead to one and then a fielder's choice in the 5th would tie the game up at 3.

Hanley Ramirez continued to swing a hot bat and gave the ROYs the lead for good with his second home run in as many games.

AL Rookie of the Year from 2009, Andrew Bailey, pitched a hitless 2 1/3 innings and got the win. Former Mariners' closer, Kaz Sasaki got the save.

Game 3: Rookie Game
TeamsRHEWIS Interactive
Rookies of the Year5110Boxscore
2010 All-Rookies9142Simulate Game
WP: Jaime Garcia; LP: Jason Jennings
Player of the Game: Buster Posey - 3-4, HR, 3B, 3 RBI

Down 2-0 in the series, the Rookies made some lineup changes to help wake up their offense. Alcides Escobar replaced Ian Desmond at SS and batted 8th. Brennan Boesch was bumped up to 5th in the lineup, and Danny Valencia started at 3B replacing Pedro Alvarez.

These changes paid off as the 2010 All-Rookies got their first win of the series, breaking out for nine runs on 14 hits. The Rookies also received a much needed solid seven innings on the mound from Cardinals' pitcher Jaime Garcia.

The Rookies found their power in this game hitting three homeruns - Buster Posey, Brennan Boesch, and Neil Walker (his 2nd of the series) all went deep.

Posey's HR came in the 1st inning and was part of a 3-4, 3 RBI performance for the Giants catcher. Austin Jackson added three hits for the Rookies.

Former ROY, Jason Jennings, got rocked allowing 6 ER on 7 hits in 2 1/3 IP.

This was a much needed win for the 2010 All-Rooks who now trail 2-1 in the best-of-seven series.

Game 4: Rookie Game
TeamsRHEWIS Interactive
Rookies of the Year393Boxscore
2010 All-Rookies461Simulate Game
WP: John Axford; LP: Kazuhiro Sasaki
Player of the Game: Austin Jackson - Game-winning walkoff 2 RBI single

Mike Leake faced Kerry Wood in this pivotal Game 4. The connection between these two is they both debuted with Dusty Baker as their manager. Baker has had to answer a lot of questions about pitch counts throughout his career and perhaps hurt Wood's arm due to overuse in Chicago. He was very cautious with Mike Leake in 2010 keeping his innings and pitches under strict watch.

Austin Jackson

Leake would not get any help in the second thanks to an Alcides Escobar throwing error allowing the ROYs to take the early lead.

The Rookies would come back in the 3rd when Jason Heyward crushed a Kerry Wood fastball to center field allowing Austin Jackson and Alcides Escobar to score giving the 2010 All-Rookies a 2-1 lead.

That lead quickly vanished with a solo homerun by the ROYs Ryan Braun who made up for his two errors in this game.

Later, in the 6th inning, with Ryan Braun on 2nd base, Kerry Wood helped out his own cause with a single to left allowing Braun to score to give them a 3-2 lead.

Leake ended up throwing 90 pitches through 5 1/3 in this game only allowing two earned runs.

The game would remain 3-2 until the 9th inning. Kaz Sasaki came in for the save. Boesch and Valencia went down swinging for two quick outs as the Rookies of the Year seemed poised to take a 3-1 series lead. However, Sasaki would walk Neil Walker and Escobar followed up with a bloop single that advanced the tying run to third base. Pedro Alvarez came in to pinch hit for the pitcher and drew a walk.

Huston Street would come in to replace Sasaki with 2-outs and the bases loaded.

It was Austin Jackson's turn to play hero as he hit a line drive single into center. Walker scored easily from third. Escobar was waved around from second, Ichiro's throw was not in time and the 2010 All-Rookies walk off to victory and even the series at 2-2.

Game 5: Rookie Game
TeamsRHEWIS Interactive
Rookies of the Year10121Boxscore
2010 All-Rookies7141Simulate Game
WP: Todd Worrell; LP:Alfredo Simon; SV: Kazuhiro Sasaki (2)
Player of the Game: Albert Pujols - 2-3, HR, 4 RBI

After losing two straight, the Rookies of the Year bounced back in a big way scoring 10 runs on 12 hits. Madison Bumgarner started for the 2010 Rookies and was rocked as was Hisinori Takahashi, who took over in the 5th. The two combined for 5 IP, 9 H and 7 R (6 ER). Not a great performance in a crucial Game 5.

On the other side, the Rookies of the Year's pitching staff performed just as poorly. Dontrelle Willis started, but could not get out of the 5th inning either. Their bullpen struggled as well. Tim Worrell gave up a 3-run bomb to the Marlins' Gaby Sanchez in the 8th inning. All three runs were charged to reliever Andrew Bailey. Gaby's homer tied the game at seven.

Orioles closer Alfredo Simon came on in the 9th for the All-Rooks and served up a 3-run dinger to the Brewers' Ryan Braun to hand the ROYs a 10-7 lead.

Kaz Sasaki then entered redeeming himself with a lock down 9th to pick up his second save of the series.

Buster Posey had his second three hit game of the series going 3-6 with 3 RBI. In fact, the top 4 hitters for the 2010 All-Rookies (Jackson, Heyward, Posey, and Sanchez) combined to go 10-19 with 7 RBI. All of which comes in a losing effort.

The Rookies of the Year lead the series 3-2 heading into Game 6.


Game 6: Rookie Game
TeamsRHEWIS Interactive
2010 All-Rookies280Boxscore
Rookies of the Year6121Simulate Game
WP: Hideo Nomo (2-0); LP: Daniel Hudson (0-2)
Player of the Game: Hideo Nomo - 7 IP, 4 H, ER, 12 K
Hideo Nomo

When it mattered the most, Hideo Nomo delivered for the Rookies of the Year.

The ROY's received another phenomenal pitching performance from for the Dodgers' ace. Nomo struck out 15 in Game 1 and followed that up with 12 Ks in Game 6.

Stephen Strasburg was a late scratch due to a shoulder injury. Arizona's Daniel Hudson struggled in the spot start situation. He allowed three runs in three innings of work.

Ryan Howard and Albert Pujols each hit a homerun to help out the ROY's offensive cause.

Nomo's stuff was too much for the 2010 Rookies to handle. He was Player of the Game for Game 1 and Game 6 and also earns MVP of the Series.

The Rookies of the Year win the Best of 7 Series 4-2.

Hard to believe all this was accomplished with a talent like Evan Longoria spittin' seeds on the bench.

Make sure you give this match-up a whirl - just click any of the Simulate Game links located inside the box scores.

Bobby And The Braves: Celebrating The Career Of Bobby Cox

  • Monday, October 4, 2010 3:25 PM
  • Written By: WhatIfSports

Share:

Whatifsports.com presents Bobby and the Braves. From a World Series title to holding the record for most ejections, Atlanta Braves skipper Bobby Cox has blessed Braves' nation with memories to last a lifetime. To celebrate his impending retirement, we have created this 16-team tournament of Bobby's best Braves ball clubs.

Each best of 7 series was played out using our "MLB Simulation Engine". Final win/loss tallies for each series are provided in the main bracket. Below the main bracket is a summary of Bobby and the Braves championship series.

You can simulate any game in the tournament yourself by clicking on the underlined team name in the main bracket. In addition, you can create your own "Atlanta Braves Dream Team" by drafting past and present players. It's all free!

>>Game 7 Boxscore

>>Simulate Game Bobby Cox's career as a major league third basemen lasted two seasons with the New York Yankees. His 29-seasons as manager of the Atlanta Braves will last the test of time.

Much like you and I wake to see the sun in the sky, Braves' nation expects to see Bobby in the dugout. His bench is a throne to which he sits and remains humble until an umpire ignites a fire in his belly. His players, sandlot samurais, are happy to do the dirty work on the field. Eric Hinske recently told the Atlanta Journal Constitution, Cox is like a mob boss. People fetch him things whether it be a chair, coffee or water.

That's respect.

In turn, Whatifsports.com and Fox Sports South have partnered up to honor Bobby Cox in this his final season with the Atlanta Braves. We have created Bobby and the Braves: A 16-team Tournament featuring some of Cox's best rosters.

As you can see in the bracket above, we've whittled the field down to two. The 1997 Braves versus the 1993 Braves in the championship series is no big surprise. The two ball clubs combined for 205 wins. Though, in both seasons, neither captured the National League pennant.

The '93 Braves featured a starting rotation that caused many owners to drool. Greg Maddux, John Smoltz, Tom Glavine and Steve Avery won 75 games for the Braves that season. The pitching staff as a whole possessed the lowest ERA in the majors at 3.14. Atlanta also had a little pop to their bat leading the NL in home runs that season with 169 led by David Justice's 40 dingers.

Fast forward four seasons to 1997. Gone was Atlanta-Fulton County Stadium as the Braves moved across the street to Turner Field. But constants remained within the organization. Maddux, Smoltz, Glavine along with Denny Neagle anchored the rotation and once again the Braves led the majors in ERA at 3.18.

The other constant was Bobby Cox. The skipper was 52 and 56 years old, respectively, when he led these two teams to 100+ wins and deep into the post-season.

As you may have guessed, this series took 7 games to crown a champion. But in the end it came down to, of all things, pitching. So, cliche.

Tom Glavine

Game 1 Summary

Greg Maddux threw a complete game 2-hitter for the 1993 Braves and drove in two runs on a RBI double en route to a rout 9-0. Ron Gant and Jeff Blauser chipped in two ribbies apiece. The 1993 Braves led the series 1-0.

Game 2 Summary

This time it was Tom Glavine for the 1997 Braves handcuffing hitters. The southpaw threw 7 scoreless innings while his Atlanta teammates built him a 5-run cushion. Michael Tucker provided the offense, beating up John Smoltz and driving in four runs on the night. The 1997 Braves win 5-1.

Game 3 Summary

Ok, 1997 Glavine good, but 1993 Glavine bad. Tommy boy didn't make it out of the 5th inning of Game 3, allowing 6 earned runs on 8 hits in 4 1/3 innings pitched. Andruw Jones led the way on offense for the '97 Braves (4 RBIs) and Denny Neagle did some work on the mound only giving up 3 hits in his 7 innings of work. The 1997 Braves take a 2-1 series lead winning 9-1.

Game 4 Summary

It's a good thing the Braves traded for Kenny Lofton before the 1997 season because they really benefited from his services in Game 4. The speedy leadoff hitter smacked four base hits and drove in two runs. Greg Maddux 1997 matched his Game 1 counterpart by locking down the 1993 Braves for 7 innings. He struck out six, walked none and scattered six hits. Ron Gant crushed his second homer of the series for the 1993 Braves, but in a losing effort. The '97 Braves need one more win to win the best of 7 series, winning 6-2.

Game 5 Summary

In a must win Game 5, the 1993 Braves dealt with an early deficit, but rallied to send the game into extra innings tied at 5. In the top of the 12th, Rafael Belliard smoked a double to the gap in right. Ron Gant scored, but Sid Bream was gunned down at the plate. Clinging to a one run lead in the bottom half of the 12th, the 1997 Braves moved the tying run into scoring position. Mark Lemke had a chance to be the hero, but ended up a zero. He flew out to end the ball game. The 1993 Braves force a Game 6, winning 6-5 in 12 innings.

Game 6 Summary

If the 1993 Atlanta Braves truly wanted to win the Bobby and the Braves tournament, they had a funny way of proving it. In their second win or go home elimination game, the '93 Braves fell behind 4-0 though 5 innings. But they did not panic and rallied back in the top of the 7th, behind a 3-run burst, all with two outs in the inning. Once again these two ball clubs would need extra innings to decide a winner. Tied at 4 in the top of the 10th, and again with two outs, the 1993 Braves come up clutch. Otis Nixon hit a single back up the box and into center plating Bill Pecota. Then with the bases loaded, Ron Gant was hit by a pitch. The 1997 Braves needed two runs in the bottom of the 10th to further the game, trailing 6-4, but their bats fell silent. The 1993 Braves were one win away from the improbable. The series was all square at 3 games apiece.

Game 7 Summary

Two harmless solo home runs in the first two innings of an epic pitching duel ended up being the difference in Game 7. Jeff Blauser's 1st inning dinger barely cleared the wall and David Justice hit a long ball to center the following inning for the 1993 Braves.

Denny Neagle did all he could to keep his 1997 Braves in the ball game. Besides the two home runs, he only rendered two more hits in his 7 innings of work.

Tom Glavine just happened to be in the zone on this night. He pitched 8 2/3 of scoreless baseball making way for Mike Stanton to close the door on the game and complete an incredible come back in the best of 7 series.

The 1993 Braves win Game 7, 2-0 the final.

The 1993 Atlanta Braves rally back to win the title and Bobby Cox exits baseball's grand stage the way he should: a winner.

0 Takes  Submit Your Take   |   View All Takes

2010 NFL Week 4 Picks and Predictions

  • Tuesday, September 28, 2010 2:59 PM
  • Written By: WhatIfSports

Share:

Each Tuesday morning, Whatifsports.com's NFL simulation engine will provide you with predictions, box scores and statistics for every NFL game that week. The NFL simulation engine generates detailed information including the home team's chances of winning (Home Win %), average score and comprehensive box score link. If you want to share your new found NFL knowledge with friends and family, make sure to check out our NFL Widgets on the WhatIf To Go page or click on the social networking share bar located at the top and bottom of the article.

The statistical inputs to the thousands of NFL games simulated are based on rigorous analysis of each team's roster, depth chart and statistically based player ranking. Roster modifications have been made for injuries and suspensions and those players are not part of their team's game simulation.

To account for injuries and roster moves announced late in the week, we will be re-simulating some games on Thursdays throughout the 2010 NFL season.

Check out our 2010 NFL Season-to-Date page to follow our accuracy week-to-week and find Locks and Upsets of the Week.

We encourage you to interact with our 2010 NFL SimMatchup feature (which is FREE) to simulate any of the games below as many times as you want. You also have the option of adjusting the depth charts to your liking.

Game of the Week: Bears vs Giants

One was shipped out of Denver in favor of our quarterback who once backed up Rex Grossman. The other had been fired by the Rams, the 49ers, and (gasp!) the Lions. Suffice it to say, Chicago fans had their doubts about the beginning of the Jay Cutler-Mike Martz Era. These apprehensions were not alleviated after protection problems surfaced in the preseason, which included embarrassing losses to Arizona, Oakland, and Cleveland.

Yet heading into Week 4, the Bears remain the last unbeaten NFC team in the 2010 season. And while Chicago did face Detroit in Week 1, the Bears have battled against projected playoff teams Dallas and Green Bay.

The defense has played admirably in the first three weeks of the season, keeping Aaron Rodgers and Tony Romo relatively at bay. But the big story is the resurgence of Cutler, who was raked through the coals this offseason after a 26-INT, 7-win performance in 2009. Making matters worse was the early success of Kyle Orton in Denver, as well as remarks from Brian Urlacher expressing disappointment in the departure of Orton in favor of the Bronco QB. However, through three games in 2010, Cutler has thrown for 870 yards and 6 touchdowns with just two interceptions and a QB rating of 109.7. While it's too early to coronate Cutler as Chicago's savior, the former Vanderbilt product is showing why Denver drafted him with the 11th overall pick in the 2006 Draft.

Cutler's resurrection is owed in no small part to Martz, who has turned into somewhat of a coaching vagabond in the past decade. Though his hubris occasionally rubs others the wrong way, there's no questioning the results derived by Martz. Celebrated as the architect of "The Greatest Show on Turf" in St. Louis, Martz additionally engineered offensive attacks in Detroit and San Francisco. While he was not able to replicate his success with the Rams, a genuine indication of Martz's talents is illustrated by his former teams' performances the year after Martz's departure. For instance, Detroit went from a 7-9 team in Martz's last year in 2007 to the first 0-16 squad in NFL history in 2008.

For now, it appears that Cutler and Martz have translated this "us-against-the-world" mentality into prosperity. The Bears currently have the most efficient passing game in the NFC, and are second only to Dallas in passing yards. The first half of the season should prove to be opportunistic for Chicago, with upcoming matchups against Carolina, Seattle, and Buffalo. The last month will be a true litmus test, as the Bears encounter New England, Minnesota, New York (Jets), and Green Bay.

But before the Windy City faithful can begin to have Super Bowl aspirations, the Bears must journey to New Jersey to combat the Giants. New York is 1-2 following a discombobulated defeat to Tennessee over the weekend, as the Giants committed five personal fouls and were negligent with the ball (three turnovers). A loss to Chicago would place Tom Coughlin on the proverbial hot seat for the sixth time in seven years in New York. One would think the Giants, a team that features veteran-laden lineups on both sides of the ball, would be too proud to start the campaign 1-3. Apparently the WhatIfSports engines shared this sentiment, as the simulations indicate New York as victors with a 65% winning percentage. Cutler and company were held in check, as the average score computes to 25-18 in favor of the Giants.

For the rest of this week's predictions from WhatIfSports, check below:

NFL Week 4
MatchupWin%Avg Score
Detroit Lions 5.08Boxscore
@ Green Bay Packers95.028Simulate Game
Arizona Cardinals 7.214Boxscore
@ San Diego Chargers92.833Simulate Game
Carolina Panthers25.718Boxscore
@ New Orleans Saints74.328Simulate Game
Chicago Bears35.018Boxscore
@ New York Giants65.025Simulate Game
Washington Redskins39.918Boxscore
@ Philadelphia Eagles60.123Simulate Game
Denver Broncos41.920Boxscore
@ Tennessee Titans58.124Simulate Game
San Francisco 49ers43.919Boxscore
@ Atlanta Falcons56.123Simulate Game
Cincinnati Bengals53.122Boxscore
@ Cleveland Browns46.921Simulate Game
Baltimore Ravens58.517Boxscore
@ Pittsburgh Steelers41.516Simulate Game
New York Jets62.918Boxscore
@ Buffalo Bills37.114Simulate Game
New England Patriots66.125Boxscore
@ Miami Dolphins33.922Simulate Game
Houston Texans68.326Boxscore
@ Oakland Raiders31.722Simulate Game
Indianapolis Colts72.525Boxscore
@ Jacksonville Jaguars27.519Simulate Game
Seattle Seahawks76.024Boxscore
@ St. Louis Rams24.016Simulate Game

0 Takes  Submit Your Take   |   View All Takes

College Football Week 5 Picks and Predictions

  • Tuesday, September 28, 2010 11:45 AM
  • Written By: WhatIfSports

Share:

Each Monday morning, Whatifsports.com's NCAA college football simulation engine will provide you with game predictions for every D-1 FBS game that upcoming week. The college football simulation engine generates detailed information for each game including the home team's chances of winning (Home Win%) and the average points scored for both teams. Make sure to share the college football information you gained here with your friends by either checking out our NCAA football widgets on the WhatIf To Go page or clicking on the social networking share bar at the top and bottom of this article.

Check out our 2010 College Football Season-to-Date page to follow our accuracy and for Locks and Upsets of the Week available on Wednesdays.

The statistical inputs to the thousands of college football simulations are based on rigorous analysis of each team's roster, depth charts and statistically based player rankings. Roster modifications are made in cases of injury or suspension and those player's are removed from their team's game simulation for that week.

Game of the Week: Stanford (12) vs Oregon (7)

If you have the chance to procure a ticket to this Saturday's showdown in the PAC-10, you are one Lucky Duck.

Thanks, try the veal.

As tired as that one liner is, the Stanford Cardinal and Oregon Ducks are ready for the first of the month to wake-up, wake-up the rest of the country. With the SEC "down" this year, the Cardinal versus Ducks in primetime on national television hands the left-coast a platform to make a mark and prove that they do belong in the power-conference discussion. All of this is attainable without USC assistance. Sometimes fresh blood can be good for the game.

As I pointed out in last week's Heisman Trophy piece with Whatifsports.com's college football insider, Chris Rix, Stanford quarterback Andrew Luck may be the best college football player you don't know much about. Trying to stay up for the 11:15pm EST kick-offs are part of the reason he flies below the radar.

Luck did throw his first two interceptions of the season last Saturday at Notre Dame. However, those two aerial errors pale in comparison to his full body of work. Through four games this year he has tallied 11 touchdowns and thrown for 912 yards with a 62.7 completion percentage. Whatifsports.com staff writer, Joel Beall, had the privilege of watching Luck in person against the Irish and says he's the real deal. Bear in mind, this analysis is coming from a Notre Dame fan.

Stanford, ranked 9th in the AP, is starting the season 4-0 for the first time since Ronald Reagan was in office and is averaging the 4th most points per game in the country (48.0ppg) while holding opponents to just 13.8 points per game (12th/country).

Oregon proved it could handle the heat, literally, and stayed in the kitchen with a big road win at Arizona State. Game-time temperature in Tempe Saturday night was announced as 100-degrees.

The ball-hawking Ducks' defense, ranked 3rd in the country in points allowed (11.0/gm), forced the Sun Devils to turn the ball over seven (7!!) times. Steven Threet threw four interceptions and the team lost three fumbles. Two of the turnovers were returned for six points.

The unusual part of the Ducks' offensive attack, first in points scored (57.8/gm), was they went to the air instead of the ground against Arizona State. Oregon ranks third in the country in rushing yards (321.8/gm). Yet, in this contest, Darron Thomas (Jeremiah who?) threw for 260 yards and two touchdowns. The air game outgained the ground by over 100 yards.

The main question in Saturday's game will be: Can these two teams break the scoreboard - as the 1st ranked offense hosts the 4th ranked offense? Then there's the chance it becomes a defensive battle (highly unlikely) with the 3rd ranked defense taking on the 12th.

The Whatifsports.com college simulation engine "played" this game 101 times and the computer likes the Oregon Ducks 62.4-percent of the time by an average score 37-28.

NOTABLE GAMES

Saturday's football buffet includes two other premiere match-ups that are worth highlighting.

The Red River Rivalry takes a back seat this season. Texas and Oklahoma did not help the hype with their underachieving performances against UCLA (Longhorns loss) and Cincinnati (Sooners gave up 305 passing yards) on Saturday. Still this game invokes a lot of interest and Mack Brown's team will have the chance to save face one week after being exposed. In 101 simulations, the college football simulation engine likes Texas 69.3-percent of the time upsetting Oklahoma at home.

Alabama survived their own scare by rallying back to beat Arkansas in their toughest test this season. Mark Ingram showcased his skills as he tries to earn a second Heisman Trophy and the Tide washed away Ryan Mallett's chances of winning the coveted trophy by picking the QB off three times. Some thought the Florida Gators were ripe for the picking at Kentucky. Urban Meyer sent a message begging to differ. Freshman quarterback/running back Trey Burton accounted for six of Florida's seven touchdowns against the Wildcats. In 101 simulations, the college football simulation engine likes the Crimson Tide 76.2-percent of the time.

College Football Week 5
MatchupWin%Avg Score 
East Carolina Pirates 6.911Boxscore
@ North Carolina Tar Heels93.134 
Miami (FL) Hurricanes49.525Boxscore
@ Clemson Tigers50.526 
Duke Blue Devils57.429Boxscore
@ Maryland Terrapins42.628 
Notre Dame Fighting Irish64.427Boxscore
@ Boston College Eagles35.624 
Virginia Tech Hokies73.336Boxscore
@ North Carolina State Wolfpack26.731 
Florida State Seminoles75.231Boxscore
@ Virginia Cavaliers24.824 
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets84.236Boxscore
@ Wake Forest Demon Deacons15.820 
Vanderbilt Commodores 5.012Boxscore
@ Connecticut Huskies95.037 
Florida International Golden Panthers 5.06Boxscore
@ Pittsburgh Panthers95.050 
Tulane Green Wave 9.916Boxscore
@ Rutgers Scarlet Knights90.134 
Florida Atlantic Owls13.924Boxscore
@ South Florida Bulls86.139 
Penn State Nittany Lions49.520Boxscore
@ Iowa Hawkeyes50.522 
Wisconsin Badgers62.438Boxscore
@ Michigan State Spartans37.637 
Michigan Wolverines70.333Boxscore
@ Indiana Hoosiers29.727 
Northwestern Wildcats92.131Boxscore
@ Minnesota Golden Gophers 7.916 
Ohio State Buckeyes95.039Boxscore
@ Illinois Fighting Illini 5.012 
Ball State Cardinals 5.010Boxscore
@ Central Michigan Chippewas95.034 
Wyoming Cowboys60.426Boxscore
@ Toledo Rockets39.625 
Buffalo Bulls71.324Boxscore
@ Bowling Green Falcons28.719 
Kent State Golden Flashes78.223Boxscore
@ Miami (OH) RedHawks21.813 
Northern Illinois Huskies82.227Boxscore
@ Akron Zips17.817 
Idaho Vandals92.140Boxscore
@ Western Michigan Broncos 7.922 
Ohio Bobcats95.035Boxscore
@ Eastern Michigan Eagles 5.010 
Washington State Cougars 5.08Boxscore
@ UCLA Bruins95.041 
Washington Huskies13.922Boxscore
@ USC Trojans86.138 
Arizona State Sun Devils14.919Boxscore
@ Oregon State Beavers85.133 
Stanford Cardinal37.628Boxscore
@ Oregon Ducks62.437 
Alcorn State Braves 5.09Boxscore
@ Mississippi State Bulldogs95.054 
Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks 5.015Boxscore
@ Auburn Tigers95.043 
Tennessee Volunteers13.914Boxscore
@ LSU Tigers86.129 
Florida Gators23.819Boxscore
@ Alabama Crimson Tide76.229 
Kentucky Wildcats35.622Boxscore
@ Mississippi Rebels64.430 
Cal Poly Mustangs 5.07Boxscore
@ Fresno State Bulldogs95.057 
California-Davis Aggies 5.06Boxscore
@ San Jose State Spartans95.033 
Louisiana Tech Bulldogs41.627Boxscore
@ Hawaii Warriors58.434 
Brigham Young Cougars64.428Boxscore
@ Utah State Aggies35.627 
Boise State Broncos95.060Boxscore
@ New Mexico State Aggies 5.08 
Temple Owls88.131Boxscore
@ Army Black Knights11.916 
Kansas Jayhawks33.725Boxscore
@ Baylor Bears66.335 
Texas A&M Aggies52.532Boxscore
@ Oklahoma State Cowboys47.531 
Texas Longhorns69.328Boxscore
@ Oklahoma Sooners30.722 
Georgia Bulldogs77.232Boxscore
@ Colorado Buffaloes22.824 
Texas Tech Red Raiders85.134Boxscore
@ Iowa State Cyclones14.921 
Marshall Thundering Herd25.726Boxscore
@ Southern Miss Golden Eagles74.335 
Tulsa Golden Hurricane58.429Boxscore
@ Memphis Tigers41.627 
Southern Methodist Mustangs95.037Boxscore
@ Rice Owls 5.022 
Navy Midshipmen23.818Boxscore
@ Air Force Falcons76.231 
UTEP Miners58.426Boxscore
@ New Mexico Lobos41.624 
Nevada Wolf Pack92.143Boxscore
@ UNLV Rebels 7.925 
TCU Horned Frogs95.047Boxscore
@ Colorado State Rams 5.011 
Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns34.717Boxscore
@ North Texas Mean Green65.326 
Louisville Cardinals68.329Boxscore
@ Arkansas State Red Wolves31.725 

0 Takes  Submit Your Take   |   View All Takes

College Football Week 4 Picks And Predictions

  • Monday, September 20, 2010 2:20 PM
  • Written By: WhatIfSports

Share:

Each Monday morning, Whatifsports.com's NCAA college football simulation engine will provide you with game predictions for every D-1 FBS game that upcoming week. The college football simulation engine generates detailed information for each game including the home team's chances of winning (Home Win%) and the average points scored for both teams. Make sure to share the college football information you gained here with your friends by either checking out our NCAA football widgets on the WhatIf To Go page or clicking on the social networking share bar at the top and bottom of this article.

Check out our 2010 College Football Season-to-Date page to follow our accuracy and for Locks and Upsets of the Week.

The statistical inputs to the thousands of college football simulations are based on rigorous analysis of each team's roster, depth charts and statistically based player rankings. Roster modifications are made in cases of injury or suspension and those player's are removed from their team's game simulation for that week.

Game of the Week: Arkansas (10) vs Alabama (1)


And with the first pick of the 2011 NFL Draft the Cleveland Browns select...

Ryan Mallett - Quarterback - University of Arkansas.

Woo Pig Sooie.

It's hard to avoid placing the cart before the horse in college football. Heck, America was ready to crown Denard Robinson the Heisman Trophy winner after week two before he ran into that FCS juggernaut Massachusetts last Saturday. Coincidentally, it was also the Wolverines who saw Mallett and his 6-7 frame walk out of the Big House following the arrival of Rich Rodriguez and his spread offense.

After sitting out the 2008 campaign, Mallett made Bobby Petrino's second year in Fayetteville a bit easier. The former back-up to Chad Henne racked up stats hefty enough to rank him in the top ten in most passing categories. He possessed a QB-rating of 152.5 and tossed 30 touchdowns his red-shirt sophomore season.

That was just an appetizer of what was to come this season. Although, Tennessee Tech and Louisiana-Monroe aren't the definition of college football excellence, the Razorbacks caught the attention of many with their win over Georgia on the road last weekend. Mallet's NFL stock continued to soar by throwing for 380 yards, three touchdowns and no interceptions against the Dawgs.

Now ranked 10th in our weekly power rankings, Mallett will try to lead Arkansas to the biggest win in the Petrino era by beating top ranked Alabama on Saturday.

The Tide didn't miss a beat with reigning Heisman Trophy winner, Mark Ingram, watching from the sidelines in weeks one and two. Back-up bulldozer Trent Richardson picked up the slack and proved he has the talents to lead this team to another BCS win. Well, Ingram returned this week against Duke. Let's just say the knee looks fine.

It took Ingram 3 plays to rush for over 100-yards against the Blue Devils. He later scored two touchdowns on rushes of one and 17 yards.

Not a bad first quarter.

Now the 3-0 Tide faces their second challenge in three weeks. Alabama controlled the tempo in their game against Penn State and dominated on both sides of the ball. They'll need more of the same to survive this SEC test and the uber-pass-happy Razborbacks.

Using our college football simulation engine, we simulated Arkansas versus Alabama 101 times. In the end, the Crimson Tide won over 79-percent of the time by an average score of 37-30. Taking a closer look at the box score, the Tide does their damage on the ground (5.1 ypr), while Mallett focuses his efforts on the passing game (342 yds pass/game).

College Football Week 4
MatchupWin%Avg Score
Florida International Golden Panthers 5.011
@ Maryland Terrapins95.038
Virginia Military Keydets 5.07
@ Virginia Cavaliers95.044
North Carolina State Wolfpack 7.922
@ Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets92.141
Wake Forest Demon Deacons 9.921
@ Florida State Seminoles90.141
Army Black Knights20.816
@ Duke Blue Devils79.229
Virginia Tech Hokies77.231
@ Boston College Eagles22.821
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers 5.011
@ South Florida Bulls95.045
Colgate Raiders 5.07
@ Syracuse Orange95.054
Buffalo Bulls 6.913
@ Connecticut Huskies93.136
Miami (FL) Hurricanes34.726
@ Pittsburgh Panthers65.334
Oklahoma Sooners73.335
@ Cincinnati Bearcats26.729
North Carolina Tar Heels80.224
@ Rutgers Scarlet Knights19.815
Ball State Cardinals 5.07
@ Iowa Hawkeyes95.044
Northern Colorado Bears 5.09
@ Michigan State Spartans95.060
Eastern Michigan Eagles 5.05
@ Ohio State Buckeyes95.058
Austin Peay Governors 5.06
@ Wisconsin Badgers95.065
Bowling Green Falcons 7.916
@ Michigan Wolverines92.138
Central Michigan Chippewas19.817
@ Northwestern Wildcats80.229
Toledo Rockets23.819
@ Purdue Boilermakers76.231
Temple Owls28.720
@ Penn State Nittany Lions71.329
Akron Zips35.620
@ Indiana Hoosiers64.428
Northern Illinois Huskies70.326
@ Minnesota Golden Gophers29.721
California Golden Bears38.628
@ Arizona Wildcats61.432
Oregon Ducks92.133
@ Arizona State Sun Devils 7.913
USC Trojans95.039
@ Washington State Cougars 5.016
Kentucky Wildcats 8.916
@ Florida Gators91.138
UAB Blazers 9.919
@ Tennessee Volunteers90.136
South Carolina Gamecocks31.723
@ Auburn Tigers68.333
West Virginia Mountaineers49.524
@ LSU Tigers50.525
Fresno State Bulldogs55.433
@ Mississippi Rebels44.632
Georgia Bulldogs78.233
@ Mississippi State Bulldogs21.823
Alabama Crimson Tide79.237
@ Arkansas Razorbacks20.830
Charleston Southern Buccaneers 5.06
@ Hawaii Warriors95.055
Oregon State Beavers24.832
@ Boise State Broncos75.242
Southern Miss Golden Eagles66.333
@ Louisiana Tech Bulldogs33.730
Stanford Cardinal62.438
@ Notre Dame Fighting Irish37.634
New Mexico State Aggies 5.011
@ Kansas Jayhawks95.035
South Dakota State Jackrabbits 5.04
@ Nebraska Cornhuskers95.061
Northern Iowa Panthers 5.09
@ Iowa State Cyclones95.044
Miami (OH) RedHawks 5.09
@ Missouri Tigers95.043
UCLA Bruins10.912
@ Texas Longhorns89.131
UCF Knights43.622
@ Kansas State Wildcats56.427
Central Arkansas Bears 5.09
@ Tulsa Golden Hurricane95.036
Tulane Green Wave 5.922
@ Houston Cougars94.144
Memphis Tigers21.821
@ UTEP Miners78.234
Ohio Bobcats61.425
@ Marshall Thundering Herd38.621
Baylor Bears87.133
@ Rice Owls12.921
TCU Horned Frogs95.041
@ Southern Methodist Mustangs 5.024
San Jose State Spartans 5.08
@ Utah Utes95.044
New Mexico Lobos34.719
@ UNLV Rebels65.327
Utah State Aggies55.426
@ San Diego State Aztecs44.625
Nevada Wolf Pack63.435
@ Brigham Young Cougars36.631
Air Force Falcons84.231
@ Wyoming Cowboys15.819
Idaho Vandals94.141
@ Colorado State Rams 5.923
Southeastern Louisiana Lions 5.09
@ Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks95.046
Arkansas State Red Wolves 6.919
@ Troy Trojans93.138
North Texas Mean Green26.726
@ Florida Atlantic Owls73.334
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders86.129
@ Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns13.915


0 Takes  Submit Your Take   |   View All Takes

2010 NFL Week 1 Picks and Predictions

  • Tuesday, September 7, 2010 4:00 PM
  • Written By: WhatIfSports

Share:

Each Tuesday morning, Whatifsports.com's NFL simulation engine will provide you with predictions, box scores and statistics for every NFL game that week. The NFL simulation engine generates detailed information including the home team's chances of winning (Home Win %), average score and comprehensive box score link. If you want to share your new found NFL knowledge with friends and family, make sure to check out our NFL Widgets on the WhatIf To Go page or click on the social networking share bar located at the top and bottom of the article.

The statistical inputs to the thousands of NFL games simulated are based on rigorous analysis of each team's roster, depth chart and statistically based player ranking. Roster modifications have been made for injuries and suspensions and those players are not part of their team's game simulation.

To account for injuries and roster moves announced late in the week, we will be re-simulating some games on Thursdays throughout the 2010 NFL season.

We encourage you to interact with our 2010 NFL SimMatchup feature (which is FREE) to simulate any of the games below as many times as you want. You also have the option of adjusting the depth charts to your liking.

Game of the Week: Minnesota vs New Orleans

Lakers-Celtics. Federer-Nadal. Bills-Cowboys. Balboa-Creed.

While not as ballyhooed as the examples above, the rematch of the 2009 NFC Championship has nevertheless sent football aficionados into a frenzy. The Minnesota Vikings travel to the Big Easy to battle the Saints on Thursday, officially signaling the start of the 2010 NFL season.

New Orleans will consummate their seven-month celebration of their Super Bowl success with - what else? - a parade. While not exactly the second coming of Mardi Gras, the festivities will feature musical performances, a procession strolling through the French Quarter to the Superdome, and culminate with Drew Brees and company raising their title banner in front of 73,000 Who-Dat faithful. (Allegedly, Taylor Swift and Dave Matthews will be two of the featured acts for the made-for-TV spectacle. Because when I think of the New Orleans jazz scene, I think of Taylor Swift belting out, "When the Saints Go Marching In.")

Although fan favorite Scott Fujita left via free agency, the Saints kept their championship squad relatively intact. All-Pro Darren Sharper begins the year on the PUP list, but with the Brees/Payton tandem back in action, the Saints will be looking to repeat as NFC South champs.

To the surprise of absolutely nobody, Brett Favre has comeback for a 20th year, returning to the scene of his ill-advised attempt that ended Minnesota's 2009 championship hopes. Yet while #4 is back in the saddle, the Minnesota landscape has altered. Star Sidney Rice is sidelined for eight weeks after hip surgery. Chester Taylor, a favorite target of Favre's, has left for rival Chicago. Speculation abounds about the long-term health of 2009 Rookie of the Year Percy Harvin. The offensive line, once considered the foundation of the franchise, is suddenly vulnerable. (Which theoretically could pose a problem when employing a 40-year-old QB with ankle issues.)

But for all the question marks surrounding the Viking offense, Minnesota still has the services of one Adrian Peterson. The former Sooner garnered 18 TDs and rushed for nearly 1,400 yards in '09, and projects as one of the top RBs in the league in 2010.

So who does the WhatIfSports engine predict will emerge victorious? The last ten Super Bowl champions have commenced their title defenses with Ws; according to our simulations, that trend will continue in 2010. The Saints come out on top 61.9% of the time, with an average score of 28-22.

Game of the Week: Falcons vs Steelers

Thanks to Favre's annual "Will he or won't he?" watch, Ben Roethlisberger's "situation" was temporarily put on the media backburner. But with Roethlisberger serving a suspension and Byron Leftwich suffering a MCL sprain, Pittsburgh has turned to 3rd stringer Dennis Dixon to start the season opener against Atlanta. Dixon, a onetime Heisman hopeful at Oregon, has just one start under his belt in his young NFL career. However, Dixon was impressive in the preseason, completing 23 of 32 passes for 327 yards, two touchdowns, and two interceptions.

After winning the 2008 Rookie of the Year, Matt Ryan fell into somewhat of a sophomore slump in 2009. Though accumulating six more touchdowns, Ryan dropped in yards, completion percentage, and QB rating. "Matty Ice" and the Falcons will try and recapture their 2008 form, a year which saw them go 11-5 and earn a playoff invite.

In the matchup of young gunslingers, Ryan shines while Dixon struggles as our projections indicate an Atlanta victory. The Falcons win at a 55% rate, with the average score of 19-18.

Here is the rest of the Week 1 schedule:

NFL Week 1
MatchupWin%Avg Score
Oakland Raiders23.315Boxscore
@ Tennessee Titans76.727Simulate Game
Detroit Lions24.915Boxscore
@ Chicago Bears75.124Simulate Game
Indianapolis Colts37.721Boxscore
@ Houston Texans62.325Simulate Game
Minnesota Vikings38.122Boxscore
@ New Orleans Saints61.928Simulate Game
Carolina Panthers50.623Boxscore
@ New York Giants49.422Simulate Game
Miami Dolphins52.120Boxscore
@ Buffalo Bills47.919Simulate Game
Cincinnati Bengals52.921Boxscore
@ New England Patriots47.120Simulate Game
Denver Broncos54.923Boxscore
@ Jacksonville Jaguars45.122Simulate Game
Green Bay Packers54.923Boxscore
@ Philadelphia Eagles45.122Simulate Game
Atlanta Falcons55.319Boxscore
@ Pittsburgh Steelers44.718Simulate Game
Cleveland Browns61.519Boxscore
@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers38.518Simulate Game
Dallas Cowboys65.422Boxscore
@ Washington Redskins34.618Simulate Game
San Francisco 49ers67.316Boxscore
@ Seattle Seahawks32.713Simulate Game
Baltimore Ravens68.917Boxscore
@ New York Jets31.113Simulate Game
Arizona Cardinals72.423Boxscore
@ St. Louis Rams27.617Simulate Game
San Diego Chargers87.529Boxscore
@ Kansas City Chiefs12.516Simulate Game

0 Takes  Submit Your Take   |   View All Takes

College Football Week 2 Picks and Predictions

  • Tuesday, September 7, 2010 12:09 PM
  • Written By: WhatIfSports

Share:

http://www.whatifsports.com/beyondtheboxscore/default.asp?article=2010CFB_Week2Picks

Each Monday morning, Whatifsports.com's NCAA college football simulation engine will provide you with game predictions for every D-1 FBS game that upcoming week. The college football simulation engine generates detailed information for each game including the home team's chances of winning (Home Win%) and the average points scored for both teams. Make sure to share the college football information you gained here with your friends by either checking out our NCAA football widgets on the WhatIf To Go page or clicking on the social networking share bar at the top and bottom of this article.

Check out our 2010 College Football Season-to-Date page to follow our accuracy week-to-week.

The statistical inputs to the thousands of college football simulations are based on rigorous analysis of each team's roster, depth charts and statistically based player rankings. Roster modifications are made in cases of injury or suspension and those player's are removed from their team's game simulation for that week.

Game of the Week: Miami (FL) vs Ohio State

The 2003 Fiesta Bowl is still considered one of the greatest college football games of all-time.

Miami, on a 34-game winning streak, was surely the favorite in what was also the 2002 Bowl Championship Series national championship game. The Hurricanes matched up with Ohio State, a team that matched the Hurricanes' undefeated season and were looking to put Jim Tressel on the map.

The game featured two overtimes, a controversial call and one upset as the Buckeyes topped the Canes 31-24 to win the championship.

This week, they'll square off again for the first time since that memorable outing. And while it may not have the streaks, the hype or the championship on the line, it's certainly an intriguing game featuring two quarterbacks with Heisman Trophy potential early on in the college football season.

Both teams opened their seasons last Thursday with unsurprising routs featuring nearly identical scores. For No. 2 Ohio State, it was a 45-7 drubbing of Marshall, while Miami throttled Florida A&M 45-0.

Miami didn't need to leave Jacory Harris in very long for him to put the Hurricanes in cruise control or for him to remind national pundits why he's a candidate for college football's most prestigious award. Harris completed 12 of 15 passes for 210 yards and three quick touchdowns before giving way to his reserves.

Miami racked up more than 400 yards of offense and averaged nearly 10 yards per pass attempt, but less than five yards per carry, somewhat troubling considering the opponent.

Meanwhile, Ohio State signal-caller Terrelle Pryor was busy matching Harris. Pryor needed a few more attempts to get there, but threw for 247 yards and three touchdowns of his own.

The Buckeyes amassed more than 500 yards of total offense and looked much better running the ball, going for more than six yards per carry.

It's that running game that helps Ohio State prevail once again in the 2002 title game rematch.

In this week's simulations, the Buckeyes don't quite get to five yards per carry, but they stifle the Hurricanes to just over 100 yards on the ground and an average of just 3.8 yards per touch.

As for the Heisman hopefuls, they just about put up matching numbers, but chalk one up for Pryor for being on the winning side.

His Buckeyes win the matchup more than 70 percent of the time by an average of eight points.

Game of the Week: Penn State vs Alabama

The nation's top-ranked team didn't need its Heisman Trophy-winning running back in the season opener.

Whether the Alabama Crimson Tide will have Mark Ingram this time around hasn't yet been announced. But even if he is cleared to play, should Alabama use him against Penn State? Or can they beat the Nittany Lions without him?

If there is one thing that Week 1 proved, and it surely wasn't a shock, it's that Trent Richardson doesn't present a significant dropoff from Ingram at running back.

Richardson ran the ball 10 times for 66 yards and two touchdowns as Alabama cruised to a 48-3 victory over San Jose State in the opener.

That said, it's certainly hard to gauge the prolific numbers that Bama put up. The Tide amassed nearly 600 total yards, ran for 6.3 yards per carry and averaged more than 11 yards per pass attempt. Similarly, they held San Jose State to just 175 yards of offense, less than five yards per pass attempt and just 3.1 yards per carry.

Clearly, the competition level wasn't there in what was basically a tune-up. A date with Penn State will be anything but - though the Nittany Lions' numbers from the first week hardly painted a clearer picture.

The Nittany Lions rolled to a 44-14 victory over Youngstown State in which the Penguins tacked on a late touchdown and Penn State seemingly needed a first-half wake-up call.

It got it from true freshman quarterback Rob Bolden as he threw for 239 yards and a pair of touchdowns. It was the first time Joe Paterno had ever started a true freshman quarterback and Bolden answered the call, though the numbers were far from as outlandish as those put up by Alabama.

Now, the rookie will likely make his second career start against the nation's top team. Can he spring the upset?

Not likely.

And Alabama could probably considering resting Ingram instead of risking bringing him back too soon.

The rushing numbers for the two teams - Bama without Ingram since they haven't confirmed he will play -- are nearly identical.

And in all actuality, the Crimson Tide's passing game that appears to give them the advantage. Alabama throws for an average of nearly 50 more yards per game, but more importantly needs fewer passing attempts to do it.

In this week's simulations, the nation's top-ranked team stays atop its perch easily. The Crimson Tide win more than 82% of the time by an average margin of more than two touchdowns.


College Football Week 2
MatchupWin%Avg Score
James Madison Dukes 5.06
@ Virginia Tech Hokies95.066
Presbyterian Blue Hose 5.05
@ Clemson Tigers95.061
Morgan State Bears 5.08
@ Maryland Terrapins95.044
Kent State Golden Flashes14.011
@ Boston College Eagles86.028
Duke Blue Devils57.926
@ Wake Forest Demon Deacons42.125
New Hampshire Wildcats 5.06
@ Pittsburgh Panthers95.064
Indiana State Sycamores 5.07
@ Cincinnati Bearcats95.063
Texas Southern Tigers 5.07
@ Connecticut Huskies95.058
Eastern Kentucky Colonels 5.08
@ Louisville Cardinals95.047
Iowa State Cyclones 5.010
@ Iowa Hawkeyes95.038
Southern Illinois Salukis 5.09
@ Illinois Fighting Illini95.047
South Dakota Coyotes 5.06
@ Minnesota Golden Gophers95.041
Illinois State Redbirds 5.08
@ Northwestern Wildcats95.052
Western Illinois Leathernecks 5.08
@ Purdue Boilermakers95.049
San Jose State Spartans 5.012
@ Wisconsin Badgers95.048
Florida Atlantic Owls12.331
@ Michigan State Spartans87.746
Miami (FL) Hurricanes29.826
@ Ohio State Buckeyes70.234
North Dakota Fighting Sioux 5.09
@ Northern Illinois Huskies95.046
Nicholls State Colonels 5.010
@ Western Michigan Broncos95.032
Gardner-Webb Runnin' Bulldogs 5.08
@ Akron Zips95.034
Liberty Flames 8.89
@ Ball State Cardinals91.231
Central Michigan Chippewas12.315
@ Temple Owls87.734
Toledo Rockets19.320
@ Ohio Bobcats80.734
Eastern Michigan Eagles45.617
@ Miami (OH) RedHawks54.420
Northern Arizona Lumberjacks 5.07
@ Arizona State Sun Devils95.044
Citadel Bulldogs 5.06
@ Arizona Wildcats95.065
Montana State Bobcats 5.010
@ Washington State Cougars95.035
Colorado Buffaloes 8.821
@ California Golden Bears91.238
Virginia Cavaliers19.319
@ USC Trojans80.735
Stanford Cardinal56.134
@ UCLA Bruins43.933
Syracuse Orange86.033
@ Washington Huskies14.024
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers 5.08
@ Kentucky Wildcats95.038
Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks 7.026
@ Arkansas Razorbacks93.045
South Florida Bulls 7.021
@ Florida Gators93.039
Penn State Nittany Lions17.514
@ Alabama Crimson Tide82.530
Georgia Bulldogs63.230
@ South Carolina Gamecocks36.828
Oregon Ducks86.033
@ Tennessee Volunteers14.019
Auburn Tigers91.236
@ Mississippi State Bulldogs 8.819
LSU Tigers95.032
@ Vanderbilt Commodores 5.09
Idaho State Bengals 5.06
@ Utah State Aggies95.047
Colorado State Rams 5.318
@ Nevada Wolf Pack94.746
San Diego State Aztecs93.031
@ New Mexico State Aggies 7.013
Georgia Southern Eagles 5.07
@ Navy Midshipmen95.048
Michigan Wolverines33.328
@ Notre Dame Fighting Irish66.736
Hawaii Warriors75.432
@ Army Black Knights24.623
McNeese State Cowboys 5.09
@ Missouri Tigers95.051
Wyoming Cowboys 5.07
@ Texas Longhorns95.037
Missouri State Bears 5.08
@ Kansas State Wildcats95.050
Louisiana Tech Bulldogs19.322
@ Texas A&M Aggies80.737
Buffalo Bulls24.622
@ Baylor Bears75.432
Idaho Vandals31.629
@ Nebraska Cornhuskers68.436
Troy Trojans36.823
@ Oklahoma State Cowboys63.230
Florida State Seminoles61.439
@ Oklahoma Sooners38.638
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets95.048
@ Kansas Jayhawks 5.021
UTEP Miners 5.026
@ Houston Cougars95.051
Prairie View A&M Panthers 5.08
@ Southern Miss Golden Eagles95.053
Memphis Tigers17.519
@ East Carolina Pirates82.536
UAB Blazers26.329
@ Southern Methodist Mustangs73.740
Bowling Green Falcons40.425
@ Tulsa Golden Hurricane59.628
North Carolina State Wolfpack49.130
@ UCF Knights50.934
West Virginia Mountaineers86.033
@ Marshall Thundering Herd14.022
Mississippi Rebels87.738
@ Tulane Green Wave12.321
UNLV Rebels 5.012
@ Utah Utes95.041
Tennessee Tech Golden Eagles 5.05
@ TCU Horned Frogs95.069
Brigham Young Cougars40.422
@ Air Force Falcons59.626
Texas Tech Red Raiders95.039
@ New Mexico Lobos 5.011
Austin Peay Governors 5.09
@ Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders95.046
Rice Owls42.126
@ North Texas Mean Green57.930
Arkansas State Red Wolves64.923
@ Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns35.120
Rutgers Scarlet Knights95.036
@ Florida International Golden Panthers 5.09

http://www.whatifsports.com/beyondtheboxscore/default.asp?article=2010CFB_Week2Picks

0 Takes  Submit Your Take   |   View All Takes

College Football Week 1 Picks And Predictions

  • Monday, August 30, 2010 12:25 PM
  • Written By: WhatIfSports

Share:

Each Monday morning, Whatifsports.com's NCAA college football simulation engine will provide you with game predictions for every D-1 FBS game that upcoming week. The college football simulation engine generates detailed information for each game including the home team's chances of winning (Home Win%) and the average points scored for both teams. Make sure to share the college football information you gained here with your friends by either checking out our NCAA football widgets on the WhatIf To Go page or clicking on the social networking share bar at the top and bottom of this article.

The statistical inputs to the thousands of college football simulations are based on rigorous analysis of each team's roster, depth charts and statistically based player rankings. Roster modifications are made in cases of injury or suspension and those player's are removed from their team's game simulation for that week.

Game of the Week: Boise State vs Virginia Tech

The national championship obviously won't be won this week.

It could be lost.

For teams from non-Bowl Championship Series conferences, a loss in Week One generally means that team no longer has a chance to win a national title.

When that team is actually considered a contender, the drama is just that much greater.

And that scenario is exactly what we'll see in the first week of the college football season as Boise State - a top-five team entering the season - plays almost undoubtedly its toughest game of the season against Virginia Tech at FedEx Field in Washington, D.C.

A win this week for the Broncos and they'll likely be the talk of college football for the next three months, or at least as long as they continue winning. The big question, of course, will be whether an undefeated Boise State team would be worthy of a championship shot despite playing in the Western Athletic Conference.

A first-week loss, however, and championship thoughts are completely out the window.

So what'll it be?

For Boise State, it's more of the same. The Broncos return almost all of their starting unit from a Fiesta Bowl appearance in January and a team that some thought deserved consideration for the national championship as they finished the season undefeated. Quarterback Kellen Moore garnered national attention for a monster year, throwing for more than 3,500 yards with 39 touchdowns compared to just three interceptions. And defensively, the key to staying unbeaten seemed to be stifling their toughest opponents. They allowed just 18 points combined against Oregon and TCU a year ago.

For the defense to match its lockdown "D" against Virginia Tech next Monday, they'll have to slow down a team that seems to be on the rise offensively. Veteran quarterback Tyrod Taylor returns with a stable of wide receivers and running backs, including Ryan Williams, who broke the program's single-season rushing record as a freshman. Virginia Tech returns far less experience on the defensive side of the ball, but the program has been one of the most consistent defensively since the turn of the century and particularly in the last half-dozen years.

Neither team is a stranger to playing a monumental game in the first week of the season as both did just that a year ago. Boise State toppled Oregon in a game remembered more for a post-game punch than the outcome, while Virginia Tech couldn't get by Alabama, a game that had the Crimson Tide as some voters' No. 1 team in the country for the rest of the year.

Might Boise State follow the same pattern in 2010?

It doesn't look like it.

According to 55 simulations of the first-week matchup, we can shelve any thoughts of the Boise State Broncos winning it all - but it's close.

Real close.

In fact, the box score couldn't be much closer.

Both the Hokies and the Broncos rack up 26 first downs. They rush the ball exactly the same amount of times (29) for almost the exact same results (156 yards for Boise State, 147 for Virginia Tech). And each team completes almost two-thirds of nearly identical passing attempts.

Moore and Taylor each air it out for nearly 350 passing yards, but that stat means that the Broncos aren't able to keep their high-caliber opponent out of the end zone.

This time around, the victory belongs to the team from a BCS conference.

The Hokies win the matchup nearly 58% of the time, but by an average margin of just four points.

And either way, the game will surely have the whole college football world talking.

OTHER NOTABLE GAMES

The Boise State Broncos aren't the only team from a non-automatic qualifying conference simply hoping to keep national championship dreams alive at the start of the year.

The Mountain West Conference's "Big Three" have similar ideas and all three - TCU, Utah and BYU - start their years off with difficult opponents.

The computers think the Horned Frogs, also undefeated in the regular season last year, will start this campaign by beating Oregon 73.7% of the time by an average of nearly two touchdowns.

The Utes, expected to be TCU's top challenger in college football's top non-AQ conference, lose a tight one to Pitt, the Panthers winning more than 61% of the time but by an average of just a single point.

And the Cougars, still in the news amidst rumors of wanting to go independent, open up with a victory against Washington 82.5% of the time.

Elsewhere, it's a big week for team's with new head coaches.

Notre Dame's Brian Kelly starts off on the right foot as the Irish take care of Purdue 70.2% of the time by nearly a 10-point margin. And Cincinnati, with Butch Jones replacing Kelly, follows suit with a nice win at Fresno State nearly 72% of the time.

The USC Trojans won't be able to win a national championship this year, but new coach Lane Kiffin wins his debut at Hawaii more than 70% of the time. And his successor at Tennessee, Derek Dooley, cruises to an easy win over Tennessee-Martin.

College Football Week 1
MatchupWin%Avg Score
Presbyterian Blue Hose 5.09
@ Wake Forest Demon Deacons95.043
Samford Bulldogs 5.08
@ Florida State Seminoles95.066
Weber State Wildcats 5.06
@ Boston College Eagles95.047
South Carolina State Bulldogs 5.07
@ Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets95.066
North Texas Mean Green 5.08
@ Clemson Tigers95.045
Western Carolina Catamounts 5.07
@ North Carolina State Wolfpack95.046
Richmond Spiders 5.07
@ Virginia Cavaliers95.043
Elon Phoenix 5.08
@ Duke Blue Devils95.044
Florida A&M Rattlers 5.06
@ Miami (FL) Hurricanes95.062
Boise State Broncos42.138
@ Virginia Tech Hokies57.942
LSU Tigers54.417
@ North Carolina Tar Heels45.616
Navy Midshipmen56.129
@ Maryland Terrapins43.928
Stony Brook Seawolves 5.06
@ South Florida Bulls95.049
Coastal Carolina Chanticleers 5.07
@ West Virginia Mountaineers95.061
Norfolk State Spartans 5.07
@ Rutgers Scarlet Knights95.047
Kentucky Wildcats50.929
@ Louisville Cardinals49.128
Towson Tigers 5.09
@ Indiana Hoosiers95.041
Eastern Illinois Panthers 5.04
@ Iowa Hawkeyes95.056
Western Michigan Broncos 5.017
@ Michigan State Spartans95.045
Youngstown State Penguins 5.05
@ Penn State Nittany Lions95.061
Marshall Thundering Herd 7.010
@ Ohio State Buckeyes93.040
Missouri Tigers78.932
@ Illinois Fighting Illini21.125
Connecticut Huskies87.738
@ Michigan Wolverines12.323
Wofford Terriers 5.07
@ Ohio Bobcats95.047
Villanova Wildcats 5.07
@ Temple Owls95.054
Southeast Missouri State Redhawks 5.09
@ Ball State Cardinals95.033
Rhode Island Rams 5.06
@ Buffalo Bulls95.039
Hampton Pirates 5.07
@ Central Michigan Chippewas95.043
Murray State Racers 5.08
@ Kent State Golden Flashes95.037
Army Black Knights87.728
@ Eastern Michigan Eagles12.314
Syracuse Orange89.532
@ Akron Zips10.517
Arizona Wildcats95.039
@ Toledo Rockets 5.016
Sacramento State Hornets 5.08
@ Stanford Cardinal95.062
Portland State Vikings 5.07
@ Arizona State Sun Devils95.042
California-Davis Aggies 5.06
@ California Golden Bears95.065
New Mexico Lobos 5.09
@ Oregon Ducks95.043
Miami (OH) RedHawks 5.06
@ Florida Gators95.053
Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns 5.010
@ Georgia Bulldogs95.043
San Jose State Spartans 5.07
@ Alabama Crimson Tide95.054
Tennessee Tech Golden Eagles 5.09
@ Arkansas Razorbacks95.065
Arkansas State Red Wolves 5.08
@ Auburn Tigers95.047
Tennessee-Martin Skyhawks 5.07
@ Tennessee Volunteers95.051
Jacksonville State Gamecocks 5.06
@ Mississippi Rebels95.053
Memphis Tigers 5.314
@ Mississippi State Bulldogs94.737
Southern Miss Golden Eagles15.826
@ South Carolina Gamecocks84.238
Northwestern Wildcats89.531
@ Vanderbilt Commodores10.516
North Dakota Fighting Sioux 5.07
@ Idaho Vandals95.059
Grambling State Tigers 5.06
@ Louisiana Tech Bulldogs95.044
Eastern Washington Eagles 5.07
@ Nevada Wolf Pack95.061
USC Trojans70.236
@ Hawaii Warriors29.829
Cincinnati Bearcats71.941
@ Fresno State Bulldogs28.135
Purdue Boilermakers29.827
@ Notre Dame Fighting Irish70.236
Sam Houston State Bearkats 5.06
@ Baylor Bears95.045
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers 5.08
@ Nebraska Cornhuskers95.048
Utah State Aggies 5.017
@ Oklahoma Sooners95.044
North Dakota State Bison 5.08
@ Kansas Jayhawks95.043
Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks 5.08
@ Texas A&M Aggies95.058
Washington State Cougars10.515
@ Oklahoma State Cowboys89.533
Southern Methodist Mustangs22.826
@ Texas Tech Red Raiders77.239
Northern Illinois Huskies68.427
@ Iowa State Cyclones31.624
UCLA Bruins71.929
@ Kansas State Wildcats28.122
South Dakota Coyotes 5.07
@ UCF Knights95.046
Southeastern Louisiana Lions 5.09
@ Tulane Green Wave95.038
Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions 5.09
@ UTEP Miners95.042
Texas State Bobcats 5.06
@ Houston Cougars95.061
Tulsa Golden Hurricane21.123
@ East Carolina Pirates78.934
Florida Atlantic Owls45.634
@ UAB Blazers54.439
Texas Longhorns95.045
@ Rice Owls 5.09
Southern Utah Thunderbirds 5.08
@ Wyoming Cowboys95.046
Nicholls State Colonels 5.09
@ San Diego State Aztecs95.037
Northwestern State Demons 5.06
@ Air Force Falcons95.053
Washington Huskies17.521
@ Brigham Young Cougars82.535
Oregon State Beavers26.326
@ TCU Horned Frogs73.739
Pittsburgh Panthers61.433
@ Utah Utes38.632
Colorado Buffaloes86.028
@ Colorado State Rams14.015
Wisconsin Badgers95.044
@ UNLV Rebels 5.017
Bowling Green Falcons12.316
@ Troy Trojans87.735
Minnesota Golden Gophers35.119
@ Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders64.930

3 Takes  Submit Your Take   |   View All Takes

Jordan-Bird-Magic Vs. LeBron-Wade-Bosh

  • Friday, July 30, 2010 1:38 PM
  • Written By: WhatIfSports

Share:

"There's no way I would've ever called up Larry, called up Magic and said, 'Hey, look, let's get together and play on one team.'" - Michael Jordan

Jordan, Bird, Magic

Since his elected exodus from Cleveland, LeBron James' decision has been universally vilified (save for those living in the greater Miami area). Cavalier fans felt betrayed and bamboozled, particularly with the hindsight of their hometown hero's performance against Boston in the playoffs. Almost anyone with a sense of self-image mocked the man's hubris of proclaiming his destination in a prime-time TV forum. Basketball legends shook their heads at LeBron's priority of improving his "brand" rather than his jump shot.

Yet the most belittling battle cry hurled at James concerns his contentment in playing second banana rather than maintaining his alpha-dog status in pursuit of a championship. This attitude was echoed by His Airness, who delivered the above quote when asked his thoughts on the matter. If any doubt remained, this damning declaration settled the debate. In the words of the Grail Knight from Indiana Jones and the Last Crusade, "He chose poorly."

But 23's proclamation initiated an intriguing inquiry: What IF Jordan, Bird and Magic had united forces? Better yet, what if we could hop into Doc Brown's DeLorean and have Jordan-Bird-Magic test Miami's refurbished roster?

Wade, James and Bosh will be entering their eighth seasons with only one ring among them. To put that truth in perspective, Bird and Magic won championships in SIX of their first seven years, with Philadelphia's '83 triumph as the lone outlier. Add Jordan's '91 title during his seventh year in the league, and suddenly the accomplishments of the boys from South Beach look feeble. (Although I'm sure if a statistic monitored the amount of stares and chest-thumps executed after dunks, blocks and welcoming parties, Miami's numbers would be off the charts. Alas.)

To settle the debate, we entered the current Heat lineup into the Whatifsports.com Simulation Engine to compete against Magic, Jordan, Bird. To complete the legends' roster, we added solid complimentary players from their championship teams, a la Luc Longley, A.C. Green, etc. We pitted the two foes in a seven-game series, and here's what transpired.

Best of Seven Series

Michael Jordan

Game 1: Legends 110, Heat 101

Miami went into halftime with the lead; however, like most LeBron James' teams, the Heat faded in the clutch. Jordan led the Legend squad with 30 points, 8 assists and 7 boards, with Bird adding 16 points and 11 rebounds in the winning effort. Bosh took advantage of the Legends' lack of a power-forward presence, racking up 26 points and 9 rebounds in the losing cause. But the real noteworthy stat comes to us via Wade, who accumulated a jaw-dropping 17 assists. Some of the early speculation concerning the Heat revolves around ball-handling duties. If Game 1 is any indication, it appears No. 3 is aptly suited for this responsibility.

Game 2: Heat 113, Legends 92

LeBron was the story in this battle, as James lit up the scoreboard with 26 points, 13 rebounds and 12 assists. While the destruction of James' popularity appears to have a prolonged shelf life, the Chosen One's witnesses will return if triple-doubles become the norm in the first few weeks of the 2010-2011 season. As ridiculous as the premise may sound, if James was averaging 30/7/8 with the likes of Mo Williams, offensively-challenged Anderson Varejao, and a washed-up Shaquille O'Neal, imagine his possible carnage with Wade, Bosh and sharpshooter Mike Miller in his arsenal.

Game 3: Legends 108, Heat 98

The Hick from French Lick finished with a triple-double (19 points, 12 rebounds, 10 assists) as the Legends take a 2-1 lead in the series. Basketball pundits have hypothesized that in a theoretical 2011 Finals matchup, Dwyane Wade has the defensive prowess to shutdown Kobe Bryant. Unfortunately, this opinion does not carry over to the simulation engine, as Jordan torched D-Wade for 40 in Game 3 and is averaging 31 ppg during the series.

Game 4: Legends 102, Heat 97

Dwyane Wade

This contest wasn't as close as advertised, as Bird and Magic sat out most of the fourth quarter until a flurry of three-pointers from Mario Chalmers in the closing minutes brought the score to a respectable margin. Magic, who had taken a backseat to Bird and Jordan in the first three games, exploded with 27 points, 10 dimes and 7 boards for the Legends. The remarkable trend of the series lies in the role players, as each squad's production has generally canceled the output of their opponent. This has yielded us a clash of the titans, as teams' destinies lie in the hands of their "Big 3." And through four games, the Legends have risen to the challenge.

Game 5: Heat 92, Legends 88

Miami pulled away in the fourth quarter to stave off elimination in Game 5. This comes off as somewhat peculiar, as the Legends possess two of the greatest clutch players in basketball history. If this team added Robert Horry, they'd never come up short in a tight ballgame. Wade goes 14-for-26 from the field to lead the Heat, while MJ submits a near triple-double with 21 points, 8 rebounds and 9 dishes.

Game 6: Legends 104, Heat 88

The Legends took a 38-24 first-quarter lead and never looked back. Fittingly, Michael Jordan took home the series MVP with a Game 6 performance of 39 points and 11 rebounds. The Birdman added 21 points and 10 boards, with Magic contributing 12 assists in the victory. The 3-ball doomed the Heat, as LeBron, Wade and Chalmers combined to shoot 2-for-11 behind the arc. Wade led Miami with 25 points, as LeBron and Bosh chipped in 21 and 20 points, respectively.

Analysis

Before submitting this article into the multitude of "F*#% Miami" literature that's been published this off-season, let us note some of the influences that impacted this outcome. Most basketball experts concur that Mike Miller will be the fourth scoring option for the Heat in 2010-11. The former Gator quietly submitted one of the better shooting years in NBA history, hitting 48 percent behind the arc, 50 percent from the field and 82 percent at the line. Miller, a preseason favorite for the Sixth Man award, managed just 4.8 points per game in our simulated series. Granted, this probably has some correlation to the tandem of Bird, Jordan and A.C. Green in his grill. Still, one would have to imagine Miller contributing more to the Heat than a measly 5 points per contest.

Heat State Table

Additionally, it's easy to get lost in the present propaganda of Miami's three amigos. While they may be on their way to greatness, this Heat squad just faced a foundation of three of the best players ever to step on the hardwood. Bird, Magic and Jordan have combined for 28 All-NBA First-Team appearances. To give that stat context, through seven seasons, Wade has been granted First-Team status twice. Bosh has yet to appear on this list.

Heat State Table

Some have called the trio of James, Wade and Bosh the greatest trinity of basketball skill ever assembled. But thanks to our engines, we know that in the "what if" world, this statement is simply hyperbole.

10 Takes  Submit Your Take   |   View All Takes

2010 NFL Playoff Predictions and Projections

  • Monday, July 26, 2010 3:46 PM
  • Written By: WhatIfSports

Share:

Contrary to popular belief (that being message boards, comments and e-mails received) Whatifsports.com is not claiming our predictions and projections are based on data collected from the Grays 2010 Sports Almanac. No, the same sports journal immortalized and exploited of by one Biff Tannen in the movie "Back to the Future II" is not assisting in the prognostication of the upcoming season. Our NFL simulation engine driven pre-season previews' purpose is to create discussion and debate. It's safe to say we've accomplished that mission.

What we have provided our readers are "what-if" scenarios for the upcoming 2010 NFL season based on the statistical outputs of players and teams from the 2009 season. The sabermetric soiree that our NFL simulation engine spits out after running all the numbers does not directly reflect the views or opinions of Whatifsports.com's writing staff. We are simply providing a voice (in written form) for the data the computer generates. Are some of the results and predictions subject to debate? Absolutely. The computer loves Phillip Rivers and isn't a big fan of Jay Cutler. It loves the Packers, but believes the Detroit Lions will remain in the cellar.

That is what is so beneficial about the content Whatifsports.com's shares with its audience. There is no way of knowing if the Green Bay Packers and San Diego Chargers are going to meet this coming February in the Super Bowl (Watch it on Fox!). Heck, when we ran this simulation Vincent Jackson was part of the Chargers' puzzle and not sitting out the first 3 games due to a Roger Goodell sanctioned timeout. What we can do, unlike many passionate fans, is take the subjective bias out of the argument and let the stats tell the story.

All of our predictions and projections you've enjoyed (some more than others) over the last two weeks are part of a fluid process. We've learned a lot about our NFL simulation engine and the data it is generating. It's our goal throughout training camp and on in to the pre-season to make the necessary calibrations that reflect the best "what-if" scenario for the 2010 NFL season.

You should also be aware that as the 2010 season plays out and as regular season weeks 1, 2, 3 etc. become past tense; player's statistics will start to blend in with their 2009 final numbers. This process will provide a more accurate projection for each player's fantasy output on a weekly basis. It's also the reason why some player's current fantasy projections on the divisional preview pages may seem skewed. Remember, our NFL simulation engine is currently working with 2009 stats until the 2010 buffet is ready for consumption the second week of September.

With that said, below you will find our 2010 NFL Final Standings and Playoff Predictions. As with all of our 2010 NFL Divisional Previews, rosters and ratings were accurate as of June 29th, 2010.

With training camps opening up the next few weeks, Whatifsports.com plans to unveil a few updates to our pre-season previews and fantasy projections.

Now if you'll excuse me, I'm going to make like a tree and get out of here.

Final Standings (*division winner, + wild card)

AFC EastWinsLosses
New England Patriots* 10 6
New York Jets 7 9
Buffalo Bills 7 9
Miami Dolphins 6 10

AFC NorthWinsLosses
Baltimore Ravens* 12 4
Pittsburgh Steelers+ 9 7
Cincinnati Bengals 9 7
Cleveland Browns 4 12

AFC WestWinsLosses
San Diego Chargers* 13 3
Denver Broncos+ 10 6
Oakland Raiders 6 10
Kansas City Chiefs 5 11

AFC SouthWinsLosses
Tennessee Titans* 9 7
Indianapolis Colts 9 7
Houston Texans 8 8
Jacksonville Jaguars 5 11

NFC EastWinsLosses
Dallas Cowboys* 12 4
Philadelphia Eagles 11 5
New York Giants 8 8
Washington Redskins 8 8

NFC NorthWinsLosses
Green Bay Packers* 13 3
Minnesota Vikings+ 11 5
Chicago Bears 5 11
Detroit Lions 2 14

NFC WestWinsLosses
San Francisco 49ers* 8 8
Seattle Seahawks 6 10
Arizona Cardinals 6 10
St. Louis Rams 4 12

NFC SouthWinsLosses
New Orleans Saints* 12 4
Carolina Panthers+ 12 4
Atlanta Falcons 6 10
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4 12


NFL Wild Card Simulations
MatchupWin%Avg ScoreGame MVP
Pittsburgh Steelers5321Roethlisberger: 21-33 247 yds, 2 TDs
@ New England Patriots4720
Denver Broncos3817
@ Tennessee Titans6223Chris Johnson: 123 rush, 1 TD
Minnesota Vikings3716
@ Dallas Cowboys6322Romo: 20-34 250 yds, 2 TDs
Carolina Panthers7219D. Williams: 85 rush, 25 rec, 1 TD
@ San Francisco 49ers2814

NFL Divisional Playoffs Simulations
MatchupWin%Avg ScoreGame MVP
Pittsburgh Steelers3520
@ San Diego Chargers6526Rivers: 23-34 296yds, 2 TDs
Tennessee Titans3217
@ Baltimore Ravens 7324Rice: 85 rush, 28 rec, 1 TD
Carolina Panthers3716
@ Green Bay Packers6325Rodgers: 20-33 257 yds, 2 TDs
Dallas Cowboys5127
@ New Orleans Saints4926Brees: 23-35 283 yds, 2 TDs

NFL Conference Championships Simulations
MatchupWin%Avg ScoreGame MVP
Baltimore Ravens3819
@ San Diego Chargers6224Rivers: 24-35 305 yds, 2 TDs
Dallas Cowboys4318
@ Green Bay Packers 5722Grant: 85 rush, 15 rec, 1 TD

Super Bowl XLV Simulations
MatchupWin%Avg ScoreGame MVP
San Diego Chargers3717
Green Bay Packers6323Rodgers: 22-35 300 yds, 2 TDs

Return to 2010 NFL Preview Homepage

0 Takes  Submit Your Take   |   View All Takes

AFC South Predictions and Fantasy Projections

  • Friday, July 23, 2010 9:56 AM
  • Written By: WhatIfSports

Share:

After a five-month hibernation, the NFL is about to poke its head out of the cave. Training camps around the country break out in a couple weeks. We are less than a month from the Bengals versus Cowboys and the first pre-season game in Canton. The September 9th regular season kicks off down in the bayou and sends the defending champs out on to the field against the same NFC team they beat to reach the Super Bowl.

A sober Sean Payton (read his book) on the sidelines toting Lombardi's Trophy versus a hungry, white stubble faced, Wrangler wearing quarterback with a surgically repaired ankle (we think) and a talented cast around him.

The National Football League knows how to make an entrance.

We know your Whatifsports.com football diet has been craving nourishment. Well, we are about to provide you a pre-season appetizer before training camps start. Beginning Monday July 12th, Whatifsports.com will preview a NFL Division-a-Day for eight straight days.

Throughout the 2010 NFL season, Whatifsports.com will provide Foxsports.com its game predictions and
Fox Sports Fantasy Football fantasy projections on a weekly basis. Using our NFL simulation engine, we have "played" the entire 2010 NFL season. Each game was simulated 501 times. The simulation engine has provided us game-by-game predictions and projected fantasy stats for all 32 NFL teams and 350 players.

Rosters and depth charts are up-to-date and as accurate as possible as of June 30, 2010. A schedule of upcoming NFL preview content including links to other previews that have already been posted is located here.

To hide the details, click here.

For this analysis, each regular season game is simulated 10,000 times, with the sum of the winning percentages of those games being our final predicted record. As can be noted, sometimes a team is "favored" (wins more than 50% of the time) in a different number of our games than the expected record shows. We list this record as the Absolute Record. The assumption of the Absolute Record is that the more likely scenario always happens. Since we know that it does not, our expected record (in parentheses next to each team) is far more accurate. Also, especially since we are rounding, it is possible for a team to win a game more often, yet score the same or fewer points on average. In those cases, for Absolute Records, we always take higher winning percentage and are not predicting a tie or a win by an underdog. This is another reason why the expected records are more accurate, as the teams are so evenly matched, the game could easily go either way.

Also, we account for players with injury histories who are considered likely to miss games despite currently being healthy by randomly taking them out of what the analysis dictates is the correct number of games throughout the season. For players who will begin the season injured or who are assumed to replace the current starter during the season, we deliberately make those roster changes in the appropriate weeks. All of these items can cause some perceived inconsistencies with the scores, especially when a team plays one opponent from its division with one set of starters and uses different personnel later.

Today we preview the AFC South

Houston Texans (WIS Prediction: 8-8)

Absolute Record: 7-9

The 2009 Houston squad became the first team in Texan history to secure a winning record. Matt Schaub turned in a remarkable campaign, leading the league in passing (4,770) and earning his first trip to the Pro Bowl. USC alum Brian Cushing garnered Rookie of the Year honors, albeit chemically-enhanced. Despite their individual and collective achievements, skepticism abounds heading into 2010. After a promising rookie start, Steve Slaton was horrendous in '09. Gary Kubiak remains on the hot seat in spite of his club's 9-7 record. And some critics contend that Houston will be unable to replicate last season's success against a tougher 2010 schedule. It's this abundance of uncertainty that makes Houston a must-watch this season.

Andre Johnson

Most Significant Newcomer: Kareem Jackson. With the departure of former 1st rounder Dunta Robinson, rookie Kareem Jackson will be looked to aid a team that ranked 11th in the AFC in passing. The 20th pick out of Alabama, Jackson possesses exceptional hands and a knack for breaking up the pass. However, rookie cornerbacks historically have not excelled in their first tour of duty in the league, which will make Jackson an interesting case study as he is forecasted to start for the Texans.

Strength: Passing. Luckily Matt Ryan has performed admirably in his first two seasons, otherwise the Falcon front-office would be feeling the heat for dealing Matt Schaub to Houston. With a loaded arsenal of aerial weapons at his disposal, Schaub has become one of the NFL's elite signal callers. Schaub's favorite target, Andre Johnson, just turned in his second-straight season of 100-plus receptions. Owen Daniels racked up 40 catches through eight games in '09 before going down with an injury. Kevin Walter and Jacoby Jones are two underrated assets, and Steve Slaton is one of the better receiving running backs in the AFC. In short, the only thing that will stop the Houston air attack is themselves.

Weakness: The Indianapolis Colts. If Houston plans on becoming a permanent playoff contender, they'll eventually have to beat their neighborhood bully. And I do mean "bully," as Peyton Manning and company are 15-1 lifetime against the Texans.

Fantasy sleeper: Kevin Walter. At initial glance, one could claim it's erroneous to label a newly-minted 5-year, $21 million-player a sleeper. Yet most preseason fantasy rankings tab Walter in the low sixties after an underperforming 2009, one which was hampered by a nagging hamstring injury. While Owen Daniels is transforming into one of the league's preeminent tight-ends, a healthy Walter will still be Schaub's security blanket over the middle. If he replicates his 2008 season (60 catches, 899 yards, 8 TD), Walter will be a steal.

Closest Game: Week 1 vs Colts (Avg. Score 20-18 - Texans)

Fantasy Notables: Matt Schaub (5) 4496 yards, 28 TDs, 13 INTs; Arian Foster (17) 912 yards, 9 TDs; Andre Johnson (1) 1514 yards, 8 TDs; Owen Daniels (2) 971 yards, 6 TDs; Kris Brown (16) 24 FG, 39 XP


2010 Houston Texans
WeekOpponentWin%Avg Score
1Indianapolis Colts5020-18
2@Washington Redskins4416-19
3Dallas Cowboys2419-25
4@Oakland Raiders7423-16
5New York Giants4722-23
6Kansas City Chiefs8628-14
8@Indianapolis Colts3817-21
9San Diego Chargers3420-23
10@Jacksonville Jaguars7020-16
11@New York Jets5415-14
12Tennessee Titans5123-21
13@Philadelphia Eagles3115-23
14Baltimore Ravens4018-20
15@Tennessee Titans4518-21
16@Denver Broncos4618-20
17Jacksonville Jaguars7724-14

Indianapolis Colts (WIS Prediction: 9-7)

Absolute Record: 10-6

An errant Peyton Manning throw/Reggie Wayne slip put a blemish on one of the more noteworthy seasons in the franchise's history. Manning and first-year head coach Jim Caldwell won the first 14 games of 2009, before sitting the starters in their last two contests. Pierre Garcon and rookie Austin Collie filled the void of Marvin Harrison and an injured Anthony Gonzalez, combining for over 100 receptions and 11 scores. With all the integral parts back for 2010, the Colts will be the prohibitive favorite in the AFC.

Chin Up Peyton

Peyton Manning Manning tries to lead Colts back to the Super Bowl

Most Significant Newcomer: Jerry Hughes. The Colts ranked 11th against the run and 9th in pass defense in '09. Hughes, a two-time All-American from TCU, should improve the standing in both categories. Extremely quick and agile, Hughes was able to enter the backfield with relative ease. This type of pressure was almost non-existent in Indianapolis, despite the play of Pro Bowlers Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis. An additional pass-rusher in Hughes suddenly transforms Indy's D into a tenacious front seven.

Biggest Strength: Effectiveness. Indianapolis ranked last in time of possession in '09, yet was third in points per game. This was accomplished with two receivers (Collie and Garcon) who had a combined 4 receptions heading into 2009 and without the help of a formidable rushing attack (the Colts placed last in rushing yards in '09).

Most Exploitable Weakness: Rushing game. Bill Polian is a guru when it comes to the Draft; however, his recent selections of running backs have been questionable at best. Joseph Addai hasn't fulfilled his 1st round-promise, Donald Brown didn't exactly "wow" in his rookie season, and Mike Hart has been unable to stay off the injured list. Since Edgerrin James left for Arizona in 2006, the team has been unable to find a consistent performer in the backfield.

Possible Fantasy Sleeper: Anthony Gonzalez. Along with Houston RB Steve Slaton, Gonzalez was one of the biggest fantasy disappointments in 2009 thanks to a knee injury in the season opener. Back to full health, Gonzo should take the reins as Manning's third option behind Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark. Gonzalez could be a valuable pickup as a third or fourth WR.

Closest Game: Week 3 @ Broncos (Avg. Score 18-17 - Broncos)

Fantasy Notables: Peyton Manning (8) 4275 yards, 26 TDs, 14 INTs; Joseph Addai (19) 874 yards, 6 TDs; Reggie Wayne (17) 1073 yards, 6 TDs; Dallas Clark (4) 860 yards, 5 TDs; Adam Vinatieri (19) 25 FG, 33 XP


2010 Indianapolis Colts
WeekOpponentWin%Avg Score
1@Houston Texans5018-20
2New York Giants5423-19
3@Denver Broncos5017-18
4@Jacksonville Jaguars7120-15
5Kansas City Chiefs9029-12
6@Washington Redskins5519-18
8Houston Texans6221-17
9@Philadelphia Eagles3416-23
10Cincinnati Bengals5519-16
11@New England Patriots4718-21
12San Diego Chargers3820-22
13Dallas Cowboys3119-23
14@Tennessee Titans4718-21
15Jacksonville Jaguars7926-14
16@Oakland Raiders7924-16
17Tennessee Titans5522-19

Jacksonville Jaguars (WIS Prediction: 5-11)

Absolute Record: 3-13

Although they improved off their 5-11 mark in 2008, last season's 7-9 record was a bitter disappointment for Jacksonville, as the team lost four consecutive games to end the season. Off the field, the team has been rumored to be a potential candidate for relocation, as the city failed to sellout seven of their eight home games. This, combined with the prevailing sentiment that Jack Del Rio's job status is in danger, makes success for 2010 imperative for the Jaguars.

The Little Engine

MJD Maurice Jones-Drew was 4th in the NFL in rushing

Most Significant Newcomer: Aaron Kampman. Jacksonville's lack of pressure on the quarterback contributed to their 14th rank in pass defense in 2009. Kampman, who accumulated 37 sacks from 2006-2008 before succumbing to an injury in '09, was brought in to help revamp the Jaguar line. The former Packer, along with Jacksonville's 1st round selection Tyson Alualu, should make an immediate impact.

Biggest Strength: Backfield. Fred Taylor's exodus to New England enabled Maurice Jones-Drew to take center stage in the Jaguar offense, and he did not disappoint. MJD ran for 1,391 yards and scored 15 TDs. Fantasy owners might have been dissatisfied with his receiving totals, which were the lowest output in his four years in the league, but this was more of a byproduct of not taking as many third-down snaps. If David Garrard and the passing game's efficiency improve, more lanes and opportunities will open for Jones-Drew in '10.

Most Exploitable Weakness: Pass defense. As noted above, the addition of Kampman and Alualu will help alleviate the shortcoming of pressure on the quarterback. However, opposing signal callers averaged a 96.0 QB rating against Jacksonville, tops in the AFC. Local products in the secondary like Reggie Nelson and Rashean Mathis haven't played to their potential thus far, and will need to live up to their billing if the Jags don't want to get torched in '10.

Possible Fantasy Sleeper: Mike Sims-Walker. Sims-Walker had a phenomenal three-game span in Weeks 2-4 in 2009, hauling in 278 yards and 3 TDs. Unfortunately, #11 was suspended in Week 5 for missing team curfew, and while he responded with a 120-yard performance in Week 6, his season was never quite the same. Sims-Walker is ranking in the late 30's in most mock fantasy drafts. As Sims-Walker projects to be Garrard's #1 target in 2010, this would be a fantastic value pick.

Closest Game: Week 5 @ Bills (Avg. Score 18-15 - Bills)

Fantasy Notables: David Garrard (15) 3429 yards, 19 TDs, 9 INTs; Maurice Jones-Drew (6) 1406 yards, 11 TDs; Mike Sims-Walker (35) 883 yards, 5 TDs; Marcedes Lewis (16) 594 yards, 3 TDs; Josh Scobee (31) 20 FG, 32 XP


2010 Jacksonville Jaguars
WeekOpponentWin%Avg Score
1Denver Broncos3419-21
2@San Diego Chargers1114-30
3Philadelphia Eagles1915-24
4Indianapolis Colts2915-20
5@Buffalo Bills4715-18
6Tennessee Titans3017-22
7@Kansas City Chiefs6221-19
8@Dallas Cowboys512-33
10Houston Texans3016-20
11Cleveland Browns7122-13
12@New York Giants2316-27
13@Tennessee Titans2715-24
14Oakland Raiders6122-16
15@Indianapolis Colts2114-26
16Washington Redskins2916-21
17@Houston Texans2314-24

Tennessee Titans (WIS Prediction: 9-7)

Absolute Record: 10-6

After completing a 13-3 record in 2008, the '09 Tennessee season was quite the roller coaster. The Titans lost their first six games, including a 59-0 shellacking in Foxborough. Following the Patriot pummeling, former Rookie of the Year Vince Young was inserted into the starting lineup for the first time since Week 1 of the 2008 season, and the Titans rolled off victories in seven of their next eight games. Yet right when the playoffs seemed like a possibility, an embarrassing 42-17 loss in San Diego put an end to a tumultuous season.

Chris Johnson

Most Significant Newcomer: Derrick Morgan. The former All-American from Georgia Tech arrives in Nashville as one of the Draft's top defensive playmakers. After ranking 4th in yards allowed in 2008 (surrendering just 3,196 yards), the Titans plummeted to last in the AFC in 2009 (allowing a whopping 4,139 yards). This standing could be correlated to the departure of Albert Haynesworth, who commanded double teams and forced pressure in the pocket. Enter Morgan, who amassed 19 sacks in the past two seasons in the ACC. With the versatility of Morgan, a hybrid DE/LB, the Titans are well on their way to improving their beleaguered defensive woes.

Biggest Strength: Rushing attack. The Titans accrued nearly 2,600 yards on the ground in 2009, 2,000 of which game from All-Pro Chris Johnson. What's more remarkable is their effectiveness with the run. The New York Jets, who ranked just ahead in team rushing with 2,756 yards, need 100 more attempts to total just 150 additional yards of rushing than Tennessee. This efficiency is highlighted in the yards per attempt category, as the Titans had a league-leading 5.2 figure.

Most Exploitable Weakness: Receiving. Since Derrick Mason left for Baltimore, the Titans have been without the services of a dependable receiver. Kenny Britt, a rookie out of Rutgers, led the team in receiving with just 701 yards and 3 TDs. Admittedly, this lack of output has correlation to the inconsistent play at quarterback, but the WR corps will need to drastically improve if Vince Young is to ever flourish on a constant basis.

Possible Fantasy Sleeper: Javon Ringer. Chris Johnson carried the rock 358 times in 2009, which equated to 30 more attempts than the nearest competitor. While Johnson will remain the focal point of the Titan attack, Jeff Fisher will try to cut back on the amount of carries Johnson receives in order to prevent overuse. With LenDale White no longer on the roster, Javon Ringer seems to be in line to benefit from this increased workload. An All-American at Michigan State, Ringer was a 5th round steal for Tennessee in 2009, as his stock fell due to injury concerns. Now 100% healthy, Ringer could be an x-factor for the Titan ground attack in 2010.

Closest Game: Week 12 @ Texans (Avg. Score 23-21 - Texans)

Fantasy Notables: Vince Young (17) 3269 yards, 18 TDs, 10 INTs; Chris Johnson (1) 1943 yards, 18 TDs; Justin Gage (44) 814 yards, 4 TDs; Bo Scaife (21) 461 yards, 3 TDs; Rob Bironas (14) 23 FG, 42 XP


2010 Tennessee Titans
WeekOpponentWin%Avg Score
1Oakland Raiders7728-15
2Pittsburgh Steelers8124-11
3@New York Giants4421-26
4Denver Broncos6222-17
5@Dallas Cowboys2218-29
6@Jacksonville Jaguars7022-17
7Philadelphia Eagles4119-20
8@San Diego Chargers2719-28
10@Miami Dolphins6623-18
11Washington Redskins5720-17
12@Houston Texans4921-23
13Jacksonville Jaguars7324-15
14Indianapolis Colts5321-18
15Houston Texans5521-18
16@Kansas City Chiefs8126-17
17@Indianapolis Colts4519-22

Return to 2010 NFL Preview Homepage

0 Takes  Submit Your Take   |   View All Takes

AFC West Predictions and Fantasy Projections

  • Friday, July 23, 2010 9:54 AM
  • Written By: WhatIfSports

Share:

After a five month hibernation, the NFL is about to poke its head out of the cave. Training camps around the country break out in a couple weeks. We are less than a month from the Bengals versus Cowboys and the first pre-season game in Canton. The September 9th regular season kicks off down in the bayou and sends the defending champs out on to the field against the same NFC team they beat to reach the Super Bowl.

A sober Sean Payton (read his book) on the sidelines toting Lombardi's Trophy versus a hungry, white stubble faced, Wrangler wearing quarterback with a surgically repaired ankle (we think) and a talented cast around him.

The National Football League knows how to make an entrance.

We know your Whatifsports.com football diet has been craving nourishment. Well, we are about to provide you a pre-season appetizer before training camps start. Beginning Monday July 12th, Whatifsports.com will preview a NFL Division-a-Day for eight straight days.

Throughout the 2010 NFL season, Whatifsports.com will provide Foxsports.com its game predictions and
Fox Sports Fantasy Football fantasy projections on a weekly basis. Using our NFL simulation engine, we have "played" the entire 2010 NFL season. Each game was simulated 501 times. The simulation engine has provided us game-by-game predictions and projected fantasy stats for all 32 NFL teams and 350 players.

Rosters and depth charts are up-to-date and as accurate as possible as of June 30, 2010. A schedule of upcoming NFL preview content including links to other previews that have already been posted is located here.

To hide the details, click here.

For this analysis, each regular season game is simulated 10,000 times, with the sum of the winning percentages of those games being our final predicted record. As can be noted, sometimes a team is "favored" (wins more than 50% of the time) in a different number of our games than the expected record shows. We list this record as the Absolute Record. The assumption of the Absolute Record is that the more likely scenario always happens. Since we know that it does not, our expected record (in parentheses next to each team) is far more accurate. Also, especially since we are rounding, it is possible for a team to win a game more often, yet score the same or fewer points on average. In those cases, for Absolute Records, we always take higher winning percentage and are not predicting a tie or a win by an underdog. This is another reason why the expected records are more accurate, as the teams are so evenly matched, the game could easily go either way.

Also, we account for players with injury histories who are considered likely to miss games despite currently being healthy by randomly taking them out of what the analysis dictates is the correct number of games throughout the season. For players who will begin the season injured or who are assumed to replace the current starter during the season, we deliberately make those roster changes in the appropriate weeks. All of these items can cause some perceived inconsistencies with the scores, especially when a team plays one opponent from its division with one set of starters and uses different personnel later.

Today we preview the AFC West

DENVER BRONCOS (WIS Prediction: 10-6)

Absolute Record: 11-5

One mind-boggling hot start, one epic collapse. Through the first six weeks of the 2009 season, the Denver Broncos appeared to be a certain lock for the postseason. They were 6-0 heading into a bye week that would get them healthy for the stretch run. Unfortunately there was never any run. Denver lost four straight games out of the bye week and another four in a row to end the season, finishing with one of the biggest collapses in NFL history. After losing two of their top passing targets in the offseason, the Broncos could be in for more of the same in Josh McDaniels' second year.

Josh McDaniel

Most Significant Newcomers: Quarterbacks. Kyle Orton has been assured that he is still the starter under center, but there are plenty of folks being developed behind him and Orton will be playing on a one-year contract. Denver added Brady Quinn from the Browns and Quinn, who never prospered in Cleveland, should be more comfortable with the makeup and vocabulary of McDaniels' system. The Broncos also added former Heisman Trophy winner Tim Tebow, giving up three draft picks to do so.

Biggest Strength: Defensive secondary. The fact that everyone in the starting group is in their 30s might make this pick a bit suspect, but good luck finding a bigger strength than a steady, veteran group at the back. This unit, which includes Champ Bailey and Brian Dawkins, obviously would've been stronger a few years ago, but they've still got plenty left in the tank. The Broncos ranked third in the league last year, giving up just over 186 passing yards per game. This unit will be stronger if 2009 draft pick Alphonso Smith and this year's pick Perrish Cox develop.

Most Exploitable Weakness: Wide Receiver. With the loss of Brandon Marshall, the Broncos don't have a clear-cut No. 1 receiver. While that doesn't appear to be as troublesome in an offense that relies on multiple-receiver sets anyway, the lack of a go-to-guy should cause worry, especially considering the folks fighting for the role of No. 1. Eddie Royal looked promising as a rookie, but was bitten by a sophomore slump. First-round pick Demaryius Thomas didn't sell scouts on ever being a No. 1 receiver and Jabar Gaffney is nothing more than a crafty veteran.

Possible Fantasy Sleeper: Correll Buckhalter. If it seems like he's been around forever, he has, but he's got touchdown potential. Knowshon Moreno is Denver's top back, but he only averaged 3.8 yards per carry. With bigger bodies in the middle of the offensive line, Buckhalter could find himself plunging up the middle, especially in goal line situations.

Closest Game: Week 3 vs Colts (Avg. Score 18-17 - Broncos)

Fantasy Notables: Kyle Orton (14) 3828 yards, 22 TDs, 11 INTs; Knowshon Moreno (16) 978 yards, 7 TDs; Eddie Royal (50) 787 yards, 4 TDs; Daniel Graham (28) 343 yards, 2 TDs; Matt Prater (9) 28 FG, 35 XP

2010 Denver Broncos
WeekOpponentWin%Avg Score
1@Jacksonville Jaguars6621-19
2Seattle Seahawks8323-11
3Indianapolis Colts5018-17
4@Tennessee Titans3817-22
5@Baltimore Ravens3014-23
6New York Jets6318-13
7Oakland Raiders7725-14
8@San Francisco 49ers6016-14
10Kansas City Chiefs8227-14
11@San Diego Chargers2516-27
12St. Louis Rams9027-10
13@Kansas City Chiefs7724-16
14@Arizona Cardinals7121-14
15@Oakland Raiders7423-16
16Houston Texans5420-18
17San Diego Chargers2818-22

SAN DIEGO CHARGERS (WIS Prediction: 13-3)

Absolute Record: 16-0

At regular season's end, the San Diego Chargers were the pick of many to bring home the Lombardi Trophy. With 11 consecutive victories to close out the regular season, it was pretty easy to make that argument. Instead, the Bolts made a quick exit from the playoffs, faltering against the New York Jets in their first playoff game. Despite losing two of their most memorable faces, the Chargers appear to be the team to beat once again in the AFC West. To get there, they'll likely have to avoid the early-season struggles that have plagued them under Norv Turner. A relatively easy schedule should help that, but San Diego will need its new parts to work out early and often.

Ragin' Rivers

Phillip Rivers Phillip Rivers is on the brink of getting SD to the SB

Most Significant Newcomer: Ryan Mathews. The Chargers made the Division I (yes, I know, it's called the Football Bowl Subdivision) leader in rushing last year their number one pick after letting LaDainian Tomlinson head to the Jets. While Darren Sproles remains in San Diego, the small speedster can't shoulder the workload himself. But will the Chargers get the Mathews that bruised defenses throughout his last regular season with Fresno State? Or the one who was stuffed by a Wyoming defense three times from the one-yard line in overtime of the New Mexico Bowl?

Biggest Strength: Quarterback. Philip Rivers proved once again in 2009 that he is amongst the NFL's elite. Rivers passed for more than 4,200 yards and 28 touchdowns last year while throwing just nine interceptions. Despite the offseason losses, Rivers still has a bevy of different targets with different styles to throw to. And while he's surely not yet in the durability realm of Peyton Manning and Brett Favre, Rivers hasn't missed a start in four years.

Most Exploitable Weakness: Defensive line. The Chargers ranked amongst the worst teams in the league, giving up 4.5 yards per carry last year, and that starts up front in their 3-4 defense. Luis Castillo is the most notable name in the defensive line, but he had just two sacks a year ago and no player on this year's preseason two-deep up front got to the quarterback more than three times. The Chargers are simply hoping for a bigger season than last year from those in the trenches.

Possible Fantasy Sleeper: Malcom Floyd. With all eyes on Vincent Jackson, one of the league's top receivers, and tight end Antonio Gates, who is showing no signs of slowing, Floyd should benefit from one-on-one coverage. He stepped right in for Chris Chambers when San Diego sent the veteran packing in the middle of last season. Floyd finished with 776 yards, including nine grabs for 140 yards in the regular season finale. With speed to burn, Floyd should be on the receiving end of big plays throughout the season.

Closest Game: Week 12 vs Colts (Avg. Score 22-20 - Chargers)

Fantasy Notables: Philip Rivers (1) 4984 yards, 37 TDs, 9 INTs; Darren Sproles (33) 570 yards, 5 TDs; Vincent Jackson (3) 1269 yards, 9 TDs; Antonio Gates (1) 1074 yards, 7 TDs; Nate Kaeding (1) 32 FG, 47 XP

2010 San Diego Chargers
WeekOpponentWin%Avg Score
1@Kansas City Chiefs9331-14
2Jacksonville Jaguars8930-14
3@Seattle Seahawks9026-12
4Arizona Cardinals9329-9
5@Oakland Raiders8727-15
6@St. Louis Rams9532-12
7New England Patriots7328-19
8Tennessee Titans7328-19
9@Houston Texans6623-20
11Denver Broncos7527-16
12@Indianapolis Colts6222-20
13Oakland Raiders9231-13
14Kansas City Chiefs9433-12
15San Francisco 49ers8727-12
16@Cincinnati Bengals6920-17
17@Denver Broncos7222-18

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (WIS Prediction: 5-11)

Absolute Record: 3-13

If the Kansas City Chiefs' trend of doubling their victories continues, they should be in for an 8-8 season. OK, that seems a bit ambitious, but they did double their win total last season to four. And while four victories may not seem like a big deal, the Chiefs have to hope that it's simply a step in the right direction. Now, with an impressive running back corps and a quarterback that has shown he can succeed in the NFL, whether Kansas City continues its upward swing will likely depend on a defense that was third-to-last in yards allowed last year. Kansas City has pinned those hopes on new coordinators Romeo Crennel and Charlie Weis.

King of the Cassel

Matt Cassel Cassel probably the cool winters of New England

Biggest Newcomer: Eric Berry. Despite having the fifth pick in the draft this offseason, the Kansas City Chiefs may have ended up with the best player, especially when considering their needs. The safety out of Tennessee should bolster a unit that gave up more than 230 yards per game and 15 passing touchdowns a year ago.

Biggest Strength: Running back. The Chiefs got rid of the headaches and should gain production. Gone is Larry Johnson, who was probably more trouble than he was worth long before Kansas City finally waved goodbye. In is Thomas Jones, who is coming off a career year with the Jets. Jones rushed for more than 1,400 yards last year and gives the Chiefs a veteran presence to go alongside top back Jamaal Charles. The big man broke out in a big way once Johnson was out of the picture, rushing for more than 100 yards in each of his last four games, including a 25-carry, 259-yard, two-touchdown performance against Denver in the season finale.

Most Exploitable Weakness: The trenches. On the offensive side of the ball, the line gave up 45 sacks last year, ranking near the bottom of the barrel. Quarterback Matt Cassel showed in New England what he could do with time in the pocket, but he simply didn't get that in his first year in Kansas City. On the defensive side, the line experienced more difficulties in the switch to the 3-4 defense than were predicted. It's a young group that needs to show more effectiveness.

Possible Fantasy Sleeper: Cassel. The numbers he put up a year ago were far from impressive. He threw for just 2,924 yards and had as many touchdowns (16) as interceptions. He could see more success under center in his second year. An improved duo of running backs will keep opposing defenses honest and, while Dwayne Bowe has had his share of difficulties, he and Chris Chambers are still capable targets.

Closest Game: Week 2 vs Browns (Avg. Score 20-18 - Browns)

Fantasy Notables: Matt Cassel (23) 3188 yards, 15 TDs, 14 INTs; Jamaal Charles (12) 1136 yards, 9 TDs; Chris Chambers (25) 1054 yards, 4 TDs; Leonard Pope (33) 299 yards, 1 TD; Ryan Succop (26) 23 FG, 29 XP

2010 Kansas City Chiefs
WeekOpponentWin%Avg Score
1San Diego Chargers714-31
2@Cleveland Browns5018-20
3San Francisco 49ers3815-17
5@Indianapolis Colts1012-29
6@Houston Texans1414-28
7Jacksonville Jaguars3819-21
8Buffalo Bills3716-18
9@Oakland Raiders3617-23
10@Denver Broncos1814-27
11Arizona Cardinals5118-16
12@Seattle Seahawks4515-17
13Denver Broncos2316-24
14@San Diego Chargers612-33
15@St. Louis Rams6020-19
16Tennessee Titans1917-26
17Oakland Raiders4420-21

OAKLAND RAIDERS (WIS Prediction: 6-10)

Absolute Record: 5-11

Remember when the Oakland Raiders made the Super Bowl? We know it's tough, but try to think all the way back to 2002. With seven consecutive losing seasons since then, Raiders fans try to do the same thing just about every day. The Raiders were a paltry 5-11 again last year, yet somehow managed to retain their coach for once. They did get rid of their overweight quarterback, and we'll see if that helps Tom Cable keep his job through another year. At the forefront of the Raiders' question marks heading into the season is the quarterback job. With JaMarcus Russell out of the picture, Jason Campbell is the front-runner to beat out Kyle Boller, Bruce Gradkowski and Charlie Frye in what is supposed to be an open competition. If that were the only question mark.

Jason Campbell

Biggest Newcomer: Linebackers. Hoping to improve a defense that gave up more than 360 yards per game in 2009, Oakland went to the trading block to pick up one and to the draft to pick up another. Kamerion Wimbley, formerly of the Browns, is expected to start at the strong side spot. Using the 9th selection, Rolando McClain is expected to plug up the middle.

Biggest Strength: Nnamdi Asomugha. It's hard to pick a unit that is the biggest strength, so we'll just go with one of the top two cornerbacks in the NFL. Asomugha's numbers don't look gaudy - he only picked off one pass last year - but that's because offenses simply can't, and won't, throw the ball at him. Oakland's cover corner still made 34 tackles last year, including eight for loss, and broke up four passes. He takes the opponent's top wide receiver out of play every game.

Most Exploitable Weakness: Receiver. It's not Darrius Heyward-Bey's fault that Oakland set him up to be the biggest bust of last year's draft and an injury didn't help him break away from that preseason mold. But Heyward-Bey, the ninth overall pick, caught just nine more passes than you and I did last year and never had more than two in one game. The problem is that he's still the biggest name in the Oakland receiving corps. Louis Murphy? Chaz Schilens? Johnnie Lee Higgins? Yeah, we're a bit lost, too.

Possible Fantasy Sleeper: Michael Bush. Once again, Darren McFadden will likely be the sexy pick for fantasy owners stuck with looking at a Raiders running back. But Bush had the bigger numbers last year and could do the same again this time around. And this time, Justin Fargas isn't around to make one worry about a three-headed monster in the backfield. Bush had just 19 more carries than McFadden last year but produced 232 more yards and two more touchdowns.

Closest Game: Week 3 at Cardinals (Avg. Score 18-17 - Raiders)

Fantasy Notables: Jason Campbell (12) 3968 yards, 21 TDs, 14 INTs; Darren McFadden (36) 699 yards, 4 TDs; Johnnie Lee Higgins (37) 868 yards, 4 TDs; Zach Miller (9) 797 yards, 4 TDs; Sebastian Janikowski (20) 25 FG, 31 XP

2010 Oakland Raiders
WeekOpponentWin%Avg Score
1@Tennessee Titans2315-28
2St. Louis Rams7424-14
3@Arizona Cardinals5118-17
4Houston Texans2616-23
5San Diego Chargers1315-27
6@San Francisco 49ers3514-20
7@Denver Broncos2314-25
8Seattle Seahawks5720-16
9Kansas City Chiefs6423-17
11@Pittsburgh Steelers1111-26
12Miami Dolphins4719-20
13@San Diego Chargers813-31
14@Jacksonville Jaguars3916-22
15Denver Broncos2616-23
16Indianapolis Colts2116-24
17@Kansas City Chiefs5621-20

Return to 2010 NFL Preview Homepage

0 Takes  Submit Your Take   |   View All Takes

AFC North Predictions and Fantasy Projections

  • Friday, July 23, 2010 9:51 AM
  • Written By: WhatIfSports

Share:

After a five month hibernation, the NFL is about to poke its head out of the cave. Training camps around the country break out in a couple weeks. We are less than a month from the Bengals versus Cowboys and the first pre-season game in Canton. The September 9th regular season kicks off down in the bayou and sends the defending champs out on to the field against the same NFC team they beat to reach the Super Bowl.

A sober Sean Payton (read his book) on the sidelines toting Lombardi's Trophy versus a hungry, white stubble faced, Wrangler wearing quarterback with a surgically repaired ankle (we think) and a talented cast around him.

The National Football League knows how to make an entrance.

We know your Whatifsports.com football diet has been craving nourishment. Well, we are about to provide you a pre-season appetizer before training camps start. Beginning Monday July 12th, Whatifsports.com will preview a NFL Division-a-Day for eight straight days.

Throughout the 2010 NFL season, Whatifsports.com will provide Foxsports.com its game predictions and
Fox Sports Fantasy Football fantasy projections on a weekly basis. Using our NFL simulation engine, we have "played" the entire 2010 NFL season. Each game was simulated 501 times. The simulation engine has provided us game-by-game predictions and projected fantasy stats for all 32 NFL teams and 350 players.

Rosters and depth charts are up-to-date and as accurate as possible as of June 30, 2010. A schedule of upcoming NFL preview content including links to other previews that have already been posted is located here.

To hide the details, click here.

For this analysis, each regular season game is simulated 10,000 times, with the sum of the winning percentages of those games being our final predicted record. As can be noted, sometimes a team is "favored" (wins more than 50% of the time) in a different number of our games than the expected record shows. We list this record as the Absolute Record. The assumption of the Absolute Record is that the more likely scenario always happens. Since we know that it does not, our expected record (in parentheses next to each team) is far more accurate. Also, especially since we are rounding, it is possible for a team to win a game more often, yet score the same or fewer points on average. In those cases, for Absolute Records, we always take higher winning percentage and are not predicting a tie or a win by an underdog. This is another reason why the expected records are more accurate, as the teams are so evenly matched, the game could easily go either way.

Also, we account for players with injury histories who are considered likely to miss games despite currently being healthy by randomly taking them out of what the analysis dictates is the correct number of games throughout the season. For players who will begin the season injured or who are assumed to replace the current starter during the season, we deliberately make those roster changes in the appropriate weeks. All of these items can cause some perceived inconsistencies with the scores, especially when a team plays one opponent from its division with one set of starters and uses different personnel later.

Today we preview the AFC North

Baltimore Ravens (WIS Prediction: 12-4)

Absolute Record: 14-2

Baltimore's Bold Move

Anquan Boldin Anquan Boldin collected 1024 yards in 2009

Although the record did not necessarily reflect this sentiment, the Ravens continued to make progress under second-year head coach John Harbaugh, highlighted by a road win in New England during the playoffs. Sophomore Joe Flacco made enormous strides from his rookie campaign, improving his yards (3,613 in '09, 2,971in '08), TDs (21 compared to 14), and completion percentage (63.1% to 60%). Ray Rice emerged as a star in the backfield, earning a trip to the Pro Bowl in only his second season. And as icing on the cake, lineman Michael Oher's life was the focal point of the Academy Award-winning film The Blind Side.

Most Significant Newcomer: Anquan Boldin. Derrick Mason has performed well in his five-year stint with Baltimore, accumulating over 4,970 yards receiving. However, the Ravens have lacked a game-changing presence at the wideout position since, well, since moving to Baltimore. Boldin not only gives Flacco a go-to target across the middle, but someone who will create space for other receivers. The only knock on Boldin in his violent nature on the field tends to lead to injuries, as #81 has missed nine games in the past three seasons.

Biggest Strength: Front seven. The Baltimore defense surrendered just 93.2 yards a game, good for 2nd in the AFC. Though Baltimore's domination on D is nothing new, '09's performance was particularly astonishing considering the team lost the services of defensive mastermind Rex Ryan, Pro Bowler Bart Scott and safety Jim Leonhard to the Jets. To further cement their supremacy, the Ravens have added All-Americans Sergio Kindle (LB) and Terrence Cody (NT) in the Draft. If Ray Lewis and Ed Reed stay healthy, Greg Mattison's unit will be a wrecking force.

Most Exploitable Weakness: Kicking. Baltimore kickers were just 15-for-24 in field goals longer than 30 yards last season, and hit just 70% of their attempts overall in '09. The Raven's resolution to this predicament? Former Bengal booter Shayne Graham, who was not resigned by Cincinnati after missing 2 FG attempts in a playoff loss against the Jets.

Possible Fantasy Sleeper: Ed Dickson. While Todd Heap turned in a respectable performance last season, he has been unable reclaim his 2002-2006 Pro Bowl form. Dickson, a 3rd round selection out of Oregon, will challenge Heap for the starting TE spot. Dickson possess good hands and has a knack for getting to the ball. If he improves his blocking, Dickson could develop into a red zone threat.

Closest Game: Week 11 @ Panthers (Avg. Score 20-18 - Carolina)

Fantasy Notables: Joe Flacco (16) 3625 yards, 21 TDs, 13 INTs; Ray Rice (3) 1343 yards, 12 TDs; Derrick Mason (26) 981 yards, 5 TDs; Todd Heap (19) 481 yards, 3 TDs; Billy Cundiff (11) 26 FG, 40 XP


2010 Baltimore Ravens
WeekOpponentWin%Avg Score
1@New York Jets7417-12
2@Cincinnati Bengals6419-16
3Cleveland Browns9129-10
4@Pittsburgh Steelers8421-11
5Denver Broncos7023-14
6@New England Patriots6119-17
7Buffalo Bills8522-8
9Miami Dolphins8525-10
10@Atlanta Falcons8423-13
11@Carolina Panthers4918-20
12Tampa Bay Buccaneers9429-8
13Pittsburgh Steelers5719-16
14@Houston Texans6020-18
15New Orleans Saints4823-22
16@Cleveland Browns8926-13
17Cincinnati Bengals6722-14

Cincinnati Bengals (WIS Prediction: 9-7)

Absolute Record:7-9

The Bengals bounced back after a 4-11-1 '08 campaign to win the AFC North in 2009. Cincinnati seemed to be a collection of the NFL wretched refuge, assembled of cast-offs (Cedric Benson), has-beens (Dhani Jones) and never-wases (Chris Crocker). Despite dealing with the deaths of teammate Chris Henry and Vikki Zimmer, wife of defensive coordinator Mike Zimmer, the Bengals went 10-6 before falling to New York in the playoffs. But the question remains: will the Who-Deys make the "next step," or fall back into irrelevancy?

Carson Palmer

Most Significant Newcomer: Jermaine Gresham. Carson Palmer's been in the NFL since 2003, yet has not had the luxury of a receiving TE in his tenure with Cincinnati. Enter Jermaine Gresham, a 2008 All-American from Oklahoma who missed all of the '09 season with a knee injury. The season off did not stop the Bengals from spending their 1st round selection on Gresham, who pulled in 26 TDs in three years at Norman. Gresham will give Cincinnati a middle-of-the-field force in the aerial attack, something that's been nonexistent in the Queen City since All-Pro Rodney Holman in the late '80s.

Biggest Strength: Mike Zimmer. No disrespect to Marvin Lewis, who earned Coach of the Year in 2009, but it's Mike Zimmer who's the mastermind behind the Bengals' recent success. Before Zimmer arrived in Cincinnati, the Bengals were ranked fourteenth in the AFC in total defense in 2007. In Zimmer's first season, the team jumped to sixth, and in 2009, the Bengal D was ranked third. Given that Zimmer is working his magic with players left for dead by other NFL teams instead of Pro Bowlers, it's amazing he hasn't been handed the reins to a head coaching position.

Most Exploitable Weakness: Special Teams. The men in orange-and-black ranked 15th in net punting and had numerous extra-point faux pas, which led to the dismal of long snapper Brad St. Louis midseason. The special teams atrociousness culminated in the playoff loss to the Jets when kicker Shayne Graham led two FG tries astray. The Bengal brass brought in former Buckeye Mike Nugent and journeyman Dave Rayner to compete for the vacant spot, but odds are these two vagabonds won't fix this glaring weakness.

Possible Fantasy Sleeper: Bernard Scott. Despite missing three games with health or fatigue issues, Cedric Benson managed to rack up 301 attempts in 2010. History has proven that high mileage for running backs in one season usually correlates to an injury-prone campaign the following year. Scott, Cincinnati's explosive 2nd-stringer, could see ample time if Cincinnati elects to preserve Benson for an extended playoff run in 2010. Scott should flashes of greatness in '09, amassing yardage totals of 119 against Oakland and 87 versus Cleveland while filling in for Benson.

Closest Game: Week 12 @ Jets (Avg. Score 15-14 - Bengals)

Fantasy Notables: Carson Palmer (20) 3325 yards, 17 TDs, 14 INTs; Cedric Benson (7) 1555 yards, 12 TDs; Chad Ochocinco (20) 1058 yards, 5 TDs; Jermaine Gresham (30) 312 yards, 2 TDs; Dave Rayner (15) 26 FG, 32 XP


2010 Cincinnati Bengals
WeekOpponentWin%Avg Score
1@New England Patriots4316-19
2Baltimore Ravens3616-19
3@Carolina Panthers3515-22
4@Cleveland Browns7620-12
5Tampa Bay Buccaneers9025-8
7@Atlanta Falcons6719-16
8Miami Dolphins7323-14
9Pittsburgh Steelers3816-18
10@Indianapolis Colts4516-19
11Buffalo Bills7518-9
12@New York Jets5715-14
13New Orleans Saints3419-23
14@Pittsburgh Steelers3215-22
15Cleveland Browns8625-11
16San Diego Chargers3117-20
17@Baltimore Ravens3314-22

Cleveland Browns (WIS Prediction: 4-12)

Absolute Record: 1-15

The Eric Mangini Era picked up right where the Romeo Crennel Experience left off. If you are a Browns fan, this is not a good thing. Following a 5-11 record, Mike Holmgren was brought in to clean house, and did he ever. Once anointed as the franchise savior, Brady Quinn was shipped out to Denver after three lackluster years. LB Kamerion Wimbley was traded to Oakland, and former Pro Bowler Derek Anderson was released to little fanfare. However, hope is on the horizon, as rookie Colt McCoy projects to be a future force in the NFL. Unfortunately for Cleveland, while McCoy is the future, Jake Delhomme is the present.

NFL Cribbs

Josh Cribbs Josh Cribbs scored 4 TDs on returns in 2009

Most Significant Newcomer: Colt McCoy. If things go as planned, McCoy won't step onto the field in 2010. While his impact won't necessarily be reflected in the standings, McCoy's presence is essential in revitalizing the collective downtrodden mood of Brownie fans. Ohio-bred Brady Quinn didn't pan out, and besides lineman Joe Thomas and versatile Joshua Cribbs, no one on the roster installs long-term promise. McCoy gives Cleveland that star to pin their hopes on, that brighter day right around the corner. Sure, those in the 216 area code have already been down this road with Tim Couch and Quinn, but the tandem of McCoy and Holmgren should be enough to reverse that trend. Speaking of Holmgren -

Biggest Strength: Mike Holmgren. Two reasons Holmgren gives long-suffering Browns fans hope. 1) Holmgren has a history of transforming his quarterbacks into stars: Joe Montana, Steve Young, Brett Favre, and to a lesser extent, Matt Hasselbeck. Cleveland is praying that Holmgren has the same success with former Longhorn McCoy, one of the top QBs in the 2010 Draft. 2) After taking two franchises to the Super Bowl, Holmgren has proven his decisions on personnel and strategy is unparalleled. If Mangini starts off slow in 2010, don't be surprised if Holmgren takes the reins to help put this team back on track.

Most Exploitable Weakness: Pass defense. The Cleveland D was torched for over 3,900 yards in 2009, second-worst in the AFC. Furthermore, the defensive unit was horrendous at causing turnovers, accumulating just 10 interceptions on the season, also good for second-worst in the AFC. To help alleviate this dilemma, the Browns used their first two selections in the Draft on cornerback Joe Haden and safety T.J. Ward, as well as trading for Philadelphia corner Sheldon Brown.

Possible Fantasy Sleeper: Jake Delhomme. Granted, his 2009 season was bad. Extremely bad (just over 2,000 yards, 8 TD and 18 INT). However, if Delhomme can hop in the DeLorean and revert to his 2008 form, where he was one of the better game-managers in football (3,288 yards, 15 TDs, 84.7 rating), Delhomme could serve as an effective backup on most fantasy teams.

Closest Game: Week 2 vs Chiefs (Avg. Score 20-18 - Browns)

Fantasy Notables: Jake Delhomme (27) 3330 yards, 16 TDs, 27 INTs; Jerome Harrison (29) 841 yards, 5 TDs; Mohamed Massaquoi (18) 1149 yards, 5 TDs; Benjamin Watson (23) 437 yards, 2 TDs; Phil Dawson (25) 26 FG, 23 XP


2010 Cleveland Browns
WeekOpponentWin%Avg Score
1@Tampa Bay Buccaneers5116-18
2Kansas City Chiefs5020-18
3@Baltimore Ravens910-29
4Cincinnati Bengals2412-20
5Atlanta Falcons4418-19
6@Pittsburgh Steelers3814-19
7@New Orleans Saints812-35
9New England Patriots2014-25
10New York Jets3313-18
11@Jacksonville Jaguars2913-22
12Carolina Panthers1312-25
13@Miami Dolphins2714-23
14@Buffalo Bills2910-18
15@Cincinnati Bengals1411-25
16Baltimore Ravens1113-26
17Pittsburgh Steelers1312-24

Pittsburgh Steelers (WIS Prediction: 9-7)

Absolute Record: 12-4

A winning record usually equates to a successful season. Yet a 9-7 record in 2009 kept the Steelers home during the playoffs for only the third time in the past decade. Lowlights on the field included losses to Kansas City, Oakland, and Cleveland. Worse, numerous off-the-field issues involving the likes of Santonio Holmes, James Harrison, and Ben Roethlisberger seemed to cast a dark cloud over the organization, one that had prided itself being an integral part of the Pittsburgh community. Big Ben

Most Significant Newcomer: Byron Leftwich. After a disappointing season in Tampa Bay, Leftwich returns to Pittsburgh, where he won a ring in '08 as a backup. But in his second stint with the Steelers, Leftwich will be looked to keep the team afloat until Roethlisberger returns from suspension. While Leftwich will not be the focal point of the Steelers offensive attack, he has not played in more than six games since 2005, and his track record as a spot-starter has been shaky at best. As Roethlisberger's suspension lasts at minimum four games, Leftwich's performance could dictate the fate of the entire season.

Biggest Strength: Run defense. Pittsburgh was tops in the AFC against the run, halting opponents to only 1,438 yards on the season. This feat was achieved despite leader Troy Polamalu missing most of the year with knee issues. LaMarr Woodley and James Harrison combine for one of the fiercest LB corps in the league, and Casey Hampton continues to dominate the line up front.

Most Exploitable Weakness: Offensive line. The Steeler o-line let up an AFC-leading 50 sacks in 2009, despite Roethlisberger's superior scrambling abilities. This ratio could increase with Leftwich under center for the first fourth of the season, as teams will stack the box and force Mike Tomlin to throw rather than run. Worse, RT Willie Colon will miss the entire season after rupturing his right Achilles tendon. Pittsburgh addressed their line issues in the Draft by selecting center Maurkice Pouncey from Florida.

Possible Fantasy Sleeper: Heath Miller. Miller's production has steadily increased since joining the league in 2005, culminating with a Pro Bowl berth in 2009. With Holmes in New York and Hines Ward rapidly aging, Miller's targets could skyrocket. Miller currently sits outside the top-10 TE in most fantasy rankings, meaning you could get a steal drafting #83 in the later rounds.

Closest Game: Week 1 vs Falcons (Avg. Score 17-16 - Steelers w/o Roethlisberger)

Fantasy Notables: Ben Roethlisberger (21) 2847 yards, 18 TDs, 9 INTs; Rashard Mendenhall (14) 1047 yards, 8 TDs; Mike Wallace (5) 1303 yards, 7 TDs; Heath Miller (12) 680 yards, 4 TDs; Jeff Reed (7) 28 FG, 34 XP


2010 Pittsburgh Steelers
WeekOpponentWin%Avg Score
1Atlanta Falcons5017-16
2@Tennessee Titans1911-24
3@Tampa Bay Buccaneers5917-16
4Baltimore Ravens1611-21
6Cleveland Browns6219-14
7@Miami Dolphins7423-16
8@New Orleans Saints3321-28
9@Cincinnati Bengals6218-16
10New England Patriots6224-19
11Oakland Raiders8926-11
12@Buffalo Bills7421-14
13@Baltimore Ravens4316-19
14Cincinnati Bengals6822-15
15New York Jets7922-12
16Carolina Panthers5521-18
17@Cleveland Browns8724-12

Return to 2010 NFL Preview Homepage

0 Takes  Submit Your Take   |   View All Takes

AFC East Predictions and Fantasy Projections

  • Monday, July 19, 2010 1:22 PM
  • Written By: WhatIfSports

Share:

After a five month hibernation, the NFL is about to poke its head out of the cave. Training camps around the country break out in a couple weeks. We are less than a month from the Bengals versus Cowboys and the first pre-season game in Canton. The September 9th regular season kicks off down in the bayou and sends the defending champs out on to the field against the same NFC team they beat to reach the Super Bowl.

A sober Sean Payton (read his book) on the sidelines toting Lombardi's Trophy versus a hungry, white stubble faced, Wrangler wearing quarterback with a surgically repaired ankle (we think) and a talented cast around him.

The National Football League knows how to make an entrance.

We know your Whatifsports.com football diet has been craving nourishment. Well, we are about to provide you a pre-season appetizer before training camps start. Beginning Monday July 12th, Whatifsports.com will preview a NFL Division-a-Day for eight straight days.

Throughout the 2010 NFL season, Whatifsports.com will provide Foxsports.com its game predictions and
Fox Sports Fantasy Football fantasy projections on a weekly basis. Using our NFL simulation engine, we have "played" the entire 2010 NFL season. Each game was simulated 501 times. The simulation engine has provided us game-by-game predictions and projected fantasy stats for all 32 NFL teams and 350 players.

Rosters and depth charts are up-to-date and as accurate as possible as of June 30, 2010. A schedule of upcoming NFL preview content including links to other previews that have already been posted is located here.

To hide the details, click here.

For this analysis, each regular season game is simulated 501 times, with the sum of the winning percentages of those games being our final predicted record. As can be noted, sometimes a team is "favored" (wins more than 50% of the time) in a different number of our games than the expected record shows. We list this record as the Absolute Record. The assumption of the Absolute Record is that the more likely scenario always happens. Since we know that it does not, our expected record (in parentheses next to each team) is far more accurate. Also, especially since we are rounding, it is possible for a team to win a game more often, yet score the same or fewer points on average. In those cases, for Absolute Records, we always take higher winning percentage and are not predicting a tie or a win by an underdog. This is another reason why the expected records are more accurate, as the teams are so evenly matched, the game could easily go either way.

Also, we account for players with injury histories who are considered likely to miss games despite currently being healthy by randomly taking them out of what the analysis dictates is the correct number of games throughout the season. For players who will begin the season injured or who are assumed to replace the current starter during the season, we deliberately make those roster changes in the appropriate weeks. All of these items can cause some perceived inconsistencies with the scores, especially when a team plays one opponent from its division with one set of starters and uses different personnel later.

Today we preview the AFC East

Miami Dolphins (WIS Prediction: 6-10)

Absolute Record: 6-10

The Dolphins had a bit of a letdown in '09, going 7-9 after winning the AFC East in 2008. Injuries decimated Miami, as Chad Pennington and Ronnie Brown missed extended time. Chad Henne played well in his first taste of professional of action, and "the Wildcat" proved not to be a one-hit wonder. With the addition of Pro Bowler Brandon Marshall, hope abounds in Miami for the 2010 season.

Brandon Marshall

Most Significant Newcomer: Brandon Marshall - The much maligned wideout has campaigned for a departure from Denver since the Josh McDaniels Era began, and his wishes were finally granted when he was shipped to Miami for a pair of 2nd round picks. No one has questioned Marshall's performance on the field: since 2007, he has racked up 307 catches for 3710 yards and 23 touchdowns. It has been Marshall's activities off the gridiron (numerous run-ins with the law, a questionable attitude with coaches) that have garnered scrutiny. Bill Parcells has a track record of dealing with disgruntled receivers in the past (Keyshawn Johnson, Terrell Owens, Terry Glenn), so if anyone can reach through to Marshall, it's the Big Tuna.

Biggest Strength: Running attack. Almost every team has installed some version of "the Wildcat" into their offensive arsenal, yet no one has replicated Miami's productiveness of the vaunted rushing attack. Despite injuries to Ronnie Brown and Patrick Cobbs, Miami still finished the season 4th in rushing, totaling over 2,200 yards in 2009. The Wildcat isn't just effective putting points on the board; it also keeps the Dolphin defense on the sideline, as Miami finished in the top-5 in the AFC in Time of Possession. If Brown returns to full-strength, and Williams can duplicate his '09 output (1121 yards, 11 TDs), the Dolphins will continue to succeed on the ground.

Most Exploitable Weakness: Defense. Despite taking the field for only 968 plays (4th lowest in the AFC), Miami surrendered 24.4 points per game, 3rd worst in the conference behind Kansas City and Tennessee. Tony Sparano and company acknowledged this Achilles' heel in the Draft, using seven of their eight selections defensive players, including 1st round selection defensive end Jared Odrick. Additionally, former 49er coach Mike Nolan was added as defensive coordinator to help transform the underperforming unit. However, a youthful corps and new frontman doesn't necessarily equate to progress, as the Dolphin D still looks to be a year away.

Possible Fantasy Sleeper: Patrick Cobbs. It's not inconceivable that Cobbs could see increased playing time in 2010, especially when one realizes Miami's running back rotation includes injury-prone Ronnie Brown and a 33-year-old Ricky Williams. Cobbs is returning from a torn knee ligament suffered in the '09 season; however, given Miami's tendency to favor the run, Cobbs could be a solid pickup if Brown and/or Williams become banged-up.

Closest Game: Week 1 @ Buffalo (Avg. Score 15-13 - Bills)

Fantasy Notables: Chad Henne (29) 3049 yards, 14 TDs, 15 INTs; Ronnie Brown (15) 1124 yards, 8 TDs; Brandon Marshall (32) 950 yards, 4 TDs; Anthony Fasano (32) 304 yards, 1 TD; Dan Carpenter (17) 27 FG, 26 XP


2010 Miami Dolphins
WeekOpponentWin%Avg Score
1@Buffalo Bills4913-15
2@Minnesota Vikings812-30
3New York Jets5214-12
4New England Patriots3018-23
6@Green Bay Packers69-28
7Pittsburgh Steelers2616-23
8@Cincinnati Bengals2714-23
9@Baltimore Ravens1510-25
10Tennessee Titans3418-23
11Chicago Bears6119-14
12@Oakland Raiders5319-20
13Cleveland Browns7323-14
14@New York Jets4012-17
15Buffalo Bills5217-14
16Detroit Lions8527-12
17@New England Patriots2115-27

Buffalo Bills (WIS Prediction: 7-9)

Absolute Record: 7-9

Buffalo brought their losing-season streak to five as the team stumbled to a 6-10 record. Unfortunately, the team's dismal performance on the field is the least of Buffalo's worries, as rumors persist the team might exodus to Toronto. Can a young and talented defense be enough to give Buffalo fans hope for 2010?

Lee-d by Example

Lee Evans Lee Evans scored 7 TDs for the Bills in '09

Most Significant Newcomer: C.J. Spiller. The 2009 season was a disaster for Buffalo at the halfback position, as former Pro-Bowler Marshawn Lynch fell out of favor with the organization and city after numerous off-the-field issues. Backup Fred Jackson filled in admirably, but the Bills only scored six TDs on the ground last year, good for last in the AFC. To address this pressing issue, the Bills took Spiller with the 9th pick in the 2010 Draft. Spiller compiled over 1200 yards on the ground at Clemson in '09, with 12 TDs and averaging 5.6 yards a carry. Spiller is also an asset in the passing game, hauling in 36 catches for 503 yards and 4 scores. If Lynch is traded or released before the season commences, look for Spiller to be the feature back in Buffalo.

Biggest Strength: Punting. Let's be honest, there's not many strengths for a team coming off a 5-10 record. (Sorry, that last win against a Curtis Painter-led Colts squad doesn't count.) The Bills do employ the services of punter Brian Moorman, one of the league's best punters. In 2009, Moorman was 2nd in the league in punting average with 46.6 yards a kick.

Most Exploitable Weakness: Quarterback. It's been said that having a quarterback competition between two players equates to having no quarterback at all. If this expression rings true, what the hell are we suppose to make of a three-man QB battle? For that's exactly what will transpire at Bills training camp, as new Buffalo coach Chan Gailey announced an open race between Trent Edwards, Brian Brohm, and Ryan Fitzpatrick for the field general position in 2010. Trust me, I don't know much in this crazy, crazy world, but whatever the question is, Ryan Fitzpatrick is never the answer.

Possible Fantasy Sleeper: Lee Evans. A subpar year for Evans (44 Rec, 612 Yds, 7 TDs) has him ranked in the high 30s at the WR position in many fantasy projections. The decline in production can be attributed to the disarray at the QB position and the presence of Terrell Owens. With TO out of the picture, if the situation at quarterback can be solidified, Evans will return to his 1000+ yard form from 2008.

Closest Game: Week 4 vs Jets (Avg. Score 14-12 - Bills)

Fantasy Notables: Trent Edwards (28) 3091 yards, 14 TDs, 18 INTs; Fred Jackson (21) 981 yards, 6 TDs; Lee Evans (34) 933 yards, 4 TDs; Derek Schouman (13) 677 yards, 3 TDs; Rian Lindell (24), 25 FG, 25 XP


2010 Buffalo Bills
WeekOpponentWin%Avg Score
1Miami Dolphins5115-13
2@Green Bay Packers128-23
3@New England Patriots2812-21
4New York Jets5114-12
5Jacksonville Jaguars5318-15
7@Baltimore Ravens158-22
8@Kansas City Chiefs6318-16
9Chicago Bears6417-11
10Detroit Lions8622-8
11@Cincinnati Bengals259-18
12Pittsburgh Steelers2614-21
13@Minnesota Vikings1511-24
14Cleveland Browns7118-10
15@Miami Dolphins4814-17
16New England Patriots3513-15
17@New York Jets4010-14

New York Jets (WIS Prediction: 7-9)

Absolute Record: 5-11

From a mid-season collapse to an improbable AFC Championship appearance, Rex Ryan's first year was quite the roller coaster. Mark Sanchez went from surprisingly good to ungodly awful to amazingly effective. The Jets had one of the best running attacks in the league, as well as giving up the fewest total overall yards on defense. Yet New York still needed to win their final two games just to enter the playoffs. While the '09 season can be labeled a surprise, 2010 will be quite the different tale, as Ryan has already proclaimed the Jets as favorites to reach the Super Bowl.

Most Significant Newcomer: LaDainian Tomlinson. The Jets acquired a multitude of noteworthy players this offseason: Santonio Holmes, Jason Taylor, Antonio Cromartie, and Nick Folk, to name a few. But the signing of LDT was the team's biggest gamble, heightened by the release of former Pro Bowler Thomas Jones and sending electrifying Leon Washington to Seattle. And unless the 2006 MVP can discover the Fountain of Youth, this venture could prove ill-advised for the Jets. A look at Tomlinson's stat lines from the past four seasons:

LT Table

Luckily for New York fans, sophomore-sensation Shonn Greene will be the featured back. However, if Greene goes down to injury and LaDainian is suddenly the focal point of the run-oriented offense, the J-E-T-S could be S.O.L.

Biggest Strength: Offensive Line. The Jets racked up 2,756 yards on the ground in '09, tops in the NFL. While the three-headed monster of Jones-Greene-Washington was a force to be reckoned with, the offensive line deserves much of the accolades. Not only did they clear the proverbial road for their runners, but the o-line also kept rookie Mark Sanchez safe, surrendering only 30 sacks, some which can be attributed to Sanchez's inability to get rid of the ball. The biggest question mark will be at guard, where the Jets released nine-time Pro Bowler Alan Faneca. Second-year man Matt Slauson and rookie Vladimir Ducasse are expected to fill Faneca's shoes.

Most Exploitable Weakness: Swagger. Before we hear another story of Rex Ryan changing the attitude and culture in Jet-land with his, "Us against the world" mantra, keep in mind these three imperative and undeniable facts: 1) The Colts and Bengals pulled their starters in Weeks 16 and 17, conceiting the Jets a playoff berth rather than New York earning it. 2) Discounting the Colts and Bengals matchups, five of New York's seven wins came against teams with non-winning records and led by the likes of Kerry Collins, Bruce Gradkowski, Jake Delhomme, Ryan Fitzpatrick, and Josh Freeman. Maybe we should pump the breaks on that Super Bowl talk. 3) Rex Ryan broke down in tears in front of his squad after coming up short against Jacksonville. Just spitballin', but when I think of "swagger," a 47-year-old man crying after losses doesn't come to mind. The point is this: numerous media outlets have decreed this team to be loaded with audacity and arrogance. The truth is, they're simply a more emotional bunch than your average NFL team. This has its advantages and detriments. When things are going well, the Jets are going to be tough to beat. But let's see how they respond after getting knocked down a few times. That's the mark of a Super Bowl contender.

Possible Fantasy Sleeper: Dustin Keller. The TE out of Purdue will be entering his third year in the league, and made major strides at the end of the '09 season. During New York's playoff run, Keller had 12 catches, 181 yards and 3 touchdowns, and became somewhat of a security option for the rookie Sanchez. Assuming Keller and Sanchez continue to build on their chemistry, Keller could become one of the more productive receiving tight-ends in football in 2010.

Closest Game: Week 4 @ Bills (Avg. Score 15-14 - Bills)

Fantasy Notables: Mark Sanchez (30) 2952 yards, 15 TDs, 20 INTs; Shonn Greene (28) 987 yards, 7 TDs; Braylon Edwards (45) 832 yards, 4 TDs; Dustin Keller (22) 429 yards, 2 TDs; Nick Folk (30) 21 FG, 28 XP


2010 New York Jets
WeekOpponentWin%Avg Score
1Baltimore Ravens2612-17
2New England Patriots3913-14
3@Miami Dolphins4812-14
4@Buffalo Bills4912-14
5Minnesota Vikings2514-21
6@Denver Broncos3713-18
8Green Bay Packers1612-21
9@Detroit Lions8421-10
10@Cleveland Browns6718-13
11Houston Texans4614-15
12Cincinnati Bengals4314-15
13@New England Patriots3310-17
14Miami Dolphins6017-12
15@Pittsburgh Steelers2112-22
16@Chicago Bears5915-14
17Buffalo Bills6014-10

New England (WIS Prediction: 10-6)

Absolute Record: 11-5

Most teams would consider a 10-6 season with a divisional crowd a success. However, most teams aren't the New England Patriots. Defensive stalwart Richard Seymour was sent packing to Oakland, and 2008 hero Matt Cassel was traded to Kansas City. Five of their six losses were contests decided by seven points or less. Yet in their first round playoff matchup against the Baltimore Ravens, the Pats were embarrassed at Gillette Stadium 33-14, with Baltimore putting up 24 on the scoreboard in the 1st quarter. With the Jets and Dolphins gaining ground, how long will New England be able to control its grasp on the AFC East?

Nice Hat

The Hoodie The Pats have lost their AFC East stranglehold

Most Significant Newcomer: Devin McCourty, Jermaine Cunningham, Brandon Spikes. The New England defense has been somewhat of a leaking ship since their (almost) undefeated season in 2007, to the point where "Patriots call Junior Seau out of retirement" has become a running joke. The three draft picks of McCourty, Cunningham, and Spikes should revitalize and stabilize the Patriot D.

Biggest Strength: Passing game. Although looking uncomfortable and timid at times in '09, Tom Brady remains one of the game's best signal callers. Brady's arsenal of weapons was replenished this offseason, with the addition of three TEs (veteran Alge Crumpler and rookies Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez) and two new WRs (7x Pro Bowler Torry Holt and 3rd round selection Taylor Price). If Wes Welker returns from a devastating ACL/MCL injury, the Patriot air-attack could be as explosive as their record-setting '07 campaign.

Most Exploitable Weakness: Running back. Or should I say, a lack thereof. The Brady - Belichick Era has never been blessed with a dynamic back (save for a brief tour of duty from Corey Dillon), always counting on a committee to get the job done. The upcoming season will be no different, as Brady has the following to work with: Kevin Faulk, BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Laurence Maroney, Sammy Morris, and Fred Taylor. Unless the Patriot brass can pull off a trade for a competent rusher (and don't put it past them), New England's ground game will be stuck in neutral. And for those who question if the Patriots inferior rushing attack will haunt them, must I remind you of the 4-and-2 blunder in Indy last season?

Possible Fantasy Sleeper: Torry Holt. At 34, most in the NFL believe Holt is washed-up. His numbers seem to indicate as such, as Holt as failed to reach 800 yards in receiving the past two seasons. (In his defense, let's see any wideout put up numbers with Marc Bulger and David Garrard.) However, Holt could find new life as New England's third receiver, as well as flourishing in a pass-happy offense.

Closest Game: Week 11 vs Colts (Avg. Score 21-18 - Pats)

Fantasy Notables: Tom Brady (11) 3989 yards, 24 TDs, 13 INTs; Laurence Maroney (37) 774 yards, 6 TD; Wes Welker (7) 1179 yards, 7 TDs; Rob Gronkowski (31) 290 yards, 2 TDs; Stephen Gostkowski (10) 27 FG, 37 XP


2010 New England Patriots
WeekOpponentWin%Avg Score
1Cincinnati Bengals5719-16
2@New York Jets6114-13
3Buffalo Bills7221-12
4@Miami Dolphins7023-18
6Baltimore Ravens3917-19
7@San Diego Chargers2719-28
8Minnesota Vikings3919-21
9@Cleveland Browns8025-14
10@Pittsburgh Steelers3819-24
11Indianapolis Colts5321-18
12@Detroit Lions9430-12
13New York Jets6717-10
14@Chicago Bears7923-15
15Green Bay Packers2917-22
16@Buffalo Bills6515-13
17Miami Dolphins7927-15

Return to 2010 NFL Preview Homepage

0 Takes  Submit Your Take   |   View All Takes

Main    |   Next page >>